Saturday plays: Backwheel long shot in Monomoy Girl

Wet Paint and Hoosier Philly headline the $175,000 Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes at Ellis Park on Saturday. These two fillies are shaky from a betting perspective since they each bring flaws to the table at short odds, but ignoring them does not feel like the proper approach either.  

The situation looks right for a long shot backwheel key. First though, the merits and shortcomings of Wet Paint and Hoosier Philly must be addressed.

Wet Paint obviously brings successful graded-stakes experience into the race. Earlier this year, she won the Martha Washington, Honeybee (G3) and Fantasy (G3) on the Oaklawn path to the Kentucky Oaks.

But in the Kentucky Oaks, Wet Paint gave a flat and puzzling effort. Instead of coming into the stretch loaded with run, Wet Paint only went past tired fillies to finish a non-threatening fourth as the 8-5 favorite.

Wet Paint shows no real excuse for the Oaks run, as she had a fast pace ahead to set up the late move and no real traffic problems. Perhaps competing against fillies from different regions made it tougher on Wet Paint, who had stayed in the Oaklawn bubble for her path to the Oaks.

Now, Wet Paint enters the Monomoy Girl as the favorite after that Oaks loss. She also finds herself at a pace disadvantage as a closer in a race where the main speed Hoosier Philly might end up on a loose lead through a slow pace. Wet Paint might overcome the pace scenario as the class filly and overpower them, but Hoosier Philly owns some talent too.

Hoosier Philly stood as the hot filly in this division last fall after dominating wins in the Rags to Riches and the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill Downs. But the sparkle came off when she began the new season in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) and faded to third by 8 1/2 lengths. She arguably did not receive a great trip though and came off a layoff as well. But in her second start of the year in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Hoosier Philly also faded to finish fourth by 15 1/4 lengths.

Following those fade jobs, Hoosier Philly gave an improved performance in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) last month. This time, Hoosier Philly set the pace uncontested and finished the race better with a runner-up performance. She came closer in that race to last year’s form.

However, Hoosier Philly still enters this race off a loss where she held an uncontested lead as the pacesetter. Usually those are the type of horses to raise a red flag on, as good speed horses will convert an easy lead into a win in most situations. Also, Hoosier Philly carries a three-race losing streak at short odds.

Even though Wet Paint and Hoosier Philly remain the best fillies in this short field, neither of them feel trustworthy alone and it is hard to make money on either filly without getting creative in second at a minimum, or possibly going against both of them if there is a talented long shot. 

The most intriguing long shot is Never Tell Patti, who is trained by Eric Reed and enters this race after a successful dirt debut at Churchill Downs on May 18. In her third career start, Never Tell Patti won for the first time in a one-mile maiden race following two unsuccessful tries on synthetic. 

Never Tell Patti fell into a good trip, but the race is worth a watch just to see the filly move. After settling into a perfect outside stalking position, Never Tell Patti made a forward move on the turn and gradually took over the lead from Fancy, the early presser in the first half. Never Tell Patti found more towards the wire to open up and win by three lengths.

From a visual standpoint, Never Tell Patti did not look spotless. She kept trying to lug in throughout the stretch when taking over the lead. But on the positive side, jockey Rafael Bejarano did not use the stick for the most part and likely only resorted to it a few times to straighten the filly out. In addition, Never Tell Patti ran on the wrong lead late in the race.

Regardless, the way Never Tell Patti opened up late though indicates she had plenty left. Never Tell Patti only won by three lengths because she ran green and remains in development mode, but the talent was there, especially on the excellent gallop out where she separated from the field even more. The feeling is that she possesses more talent than shown.

With only a 100 TimeformUS speed figure, Never Tell Patti must run at least 10 points faster this time. Given Never Tell Patti ran that figure while not trying her best, she can probably move forward in this spot.

Champagne Calling also deserves some space in this analysis after closing for the win in a May 5 allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. She won by a neck over Charlie’s Wish while posting a 103 on TimeformUS.

For what it is worth, Charlie’s Wish previously won a Florida-bred allowance race at Gulfstream Park before finishing second to Champagne Calling.

One concern for Champagne Calling is that when she tried stakes company in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs, she finished a disappointing sixth. The absence of Lasix possibly affected her effort, as her two lifetime wins both came in non-stakes races with Lasix applied.

Never Tell Patti is both a win bet and backwheel key, with more emphasis on the backwheel since one of the two favorites will likely win. Watch the board, as taking a chance on this filly makes more sense at double-digit odds.  

Win: 3 (at 8-1 or higher)

Exacta wheel: 1,4 over 3

Exacta: 5 over 3 (for less money)