Saturday plays: Key this horse in stakes double at Saratoga

Out of the three favorites in the graded stakes races at Saratoga on Saturday, Annapolis looks like the most playable one in the Grade 3, $175,000 Kelso Stakes. The son of War Front faces mostly a modest turf field, and he will act as the key linked with two long shots in the Grade 3, $175,000 Sanford Stakes.

Here is the analysis for each race and the daily double play.

Saratoga race 9: Kelso Stakes (G3)

Annapolis shows a remarkable record with six wins and two seconds in nine starts. His only off-the-board effort came in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, which is entirely forgivable given the subpar start and poor position early in the race.

In Annapolis’ two races before the Breeders’ Cup, he won the Saranac Stakes (G3) on this course by a dominant 5 1/2 lengths before stepping up in class and winning the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1) by a clear 1 1/2 lengths.

Early fractions were on the fast side in the Keeneland Turf Mile. But despite sitting close early in third, the pace did not affect Annapolis. He waited patiently in the pocket and pushed his way out at the top of the stretch. At that point, Annapolis took control and finished strong for the win. 

The runner-up Ivar went on to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Annapolis then went on a layoff. He came back in sharp form by overcoming a slow pace in the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs to win by a head over Churchtown, who benefited from sitting near the lead.

One minor concern for Annapolis is that his work tab does show some time missed time between May 27 and June 16. Since June 16 though, Annapolis has put in four good works at regular intervals.

His main opponent Casa Creed has turned seven this year and horses generally do not improve at this age. Even though Casa Creed won the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) on this course last year, he usually needs a perfectly-timed ride to win races at one mile as he tends to flatten out. 

Annapolis is the single.

Win: 2 (even money or longer)

Double: 2 with 7,10

Saratoga race 10: Sanford Stakes (G3)

On paper, the pace appears fast for this edition of the Sanford. Jive, Dickens and Market Street might show the most speed, while the favorite Gold Street will probably settle into a close-range stalking position behind them.

If the pace heats up as expected, Triple Trea may come with a closing bid and threaten the leaders. In his only start, he made a late move to inhale his opponents in a five-furlong maiden race at Woodbine. Now, Luis Saez takes over the mount, and he is a great reader of the pace.

Triple Trea lacks dirt experience, but he sits at 10-1 on the morning line and could stick around those odds as his trainer is not well known outside of Woodbine.

Another promising colt is Market Street, who makes his second start for trainer D. Wayne Lukas after breaking his maiden over the slop at Ellis Park on June 29. Market Street won by 3 3/4 lengths following a comfortable lead.

Given his pedigree, Market Street is supposed to enjoy the stretch-out to six furlongs. He is by Street Sense out of the Quality Road mare Quality Way. Quality Way is a half-sister to Super Ninety Nine, who won the 2013 Southwest Stakes (G3).

In addition, Market Street’s second dam Exogenetic is a 3/4 sibling to Exogenous, the winner of the 2001 Gazelle Handicap (G1) and Beldame Stakes (G1). Exogenous also ran second in the Alabama Stakes (G1).

Gold Sweep starts as the heavy favorite in this race after his nine-length win in the Tremont Stakes. But his low odds are tough to take and not every 2-year-old at the spring Belmont meet transfers his sharp form to Saratoga.  

Triple Trea and Market Street are the two horses to use in the double.