Saturday plays: See who can beat Charge It in Suburban

Charge It will start as the heavy favorite in the Grade 2, $350,000 Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday, but there is one red flag to discuss that makes this 4-year-old son of Tapit hard to rely on from a betting standpoint.

The more attractive races come later on the card in the Grade 1, $500,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational and Grade 1, $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational.

But first, here is an argument to beat the favorite in the Suburban.

Belmont Park race 5: Suburban Stakes (G2)

Since Charge It supporters keep expecting him to return to his Dwyer (G2) speed figure from last year, he keeps getting bet without the current form to justify his odds.

On March 4 in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), Charge It finished second to the average Endorsed while burning bettors who trusted him at 3/5. Afterwards, Charge It then ended up fifth at 9/5 in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and fourth in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) at 5-1.

Charge It's red flag is that he burns win money on a regular basis. In most cases, this is the type of runner to avoid since the public will not back off. His supporters continue to wait for that big Dwyer effort to reappear, and it can appear in this softer spot, but his big effort in that specific race could also end up as a one-off that he will never repeat. 

One good alternative is Tonal Impact, who shows good efforts in longer routes.

Back on April 6 at Aqueduct, Tonal Impact overcame slow fractions of 25.05 and 50.55 to finish a good closing third by a head in a nine-furlong optional claimer. Two starts later on May 28 at Belmont, Tonal Impact won a nine-furlong optional claimer by 3 1/4 lengths with a 118 on TimeformUS, which is not that far from Charge It's current numbers.

Also note Tonal Impact's most recent start in a local one-mile optional claiming race, where he overcame a slow pace to win with a 121. 

In the Oaklawn Handicap, Charge It only ran a 117 on TimeformUS, although they gave him a 123 for his fourth-place finish in the Met Mile. 

Tonal Impact only needs a slight improvement to contend in this spot.  

Win-place: No. 1 at 7-2 or longer.

Belmont Park race 8: Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1)

Prerequisite ran an impressive race when she took the local nine-furlong Wonder Again Stakes (G3) in only her third career start with pacesetting tactics.  

While leading the field, Prerequisite withstood pressure from Spansive through 23.67, 47.94 and 1:11.80 fractions before putting her away. According to TimeformUS, the half-mile and six-furlong fractions were both labeled as fast. Prerequisite then held on in the stretch as Be Your Best came closing fast from midpack.

Prerequisite only won by a neck over Be Your Best, but she did all the early pace work while Be Your Guest simply took advantage of the difficult pace situation with her closing move.

This time, Spansive is missing from the field. On paper, no other filly in this race will challenge Prerequisite for the lead, which should leave Prerequisite with every chance to win as long as she handles 1 1/4 miles.

Pedigree-wise, Prerequisite shows a strong female side for longer route distances. Her first dam Etsu is a full sister to the long-winded Homeland Security, whose five wins in 14 career starts came only in 10 or 12 furlong races, including her 10-furlong maiden win.

Prerequisite can wire this field at value odds.

Win: No. 5 at 7-2 or longer.

Belmont Park race 9: Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

This might end up as one of those rare cases where the classy European invader offers reasonable odds on the board in an American turf race.

Last month, The Foxes ran well enough in the Betfred Derby (G1), otherwise known as the Epsom Derby. After spending most of the race near the back following the eventual winner Auguste Rodin, The Foxes made a menacing move with that horse around the turn before flattening out late in the race. Perhaps the distance was a little too far.

Even though The Foxes faded to fifth by eight lengths after making his move in the Epsom Derby, that kind of effort in a high-class European race still should defeat most American turf 3-year-olds. The Foxes also gets to cut back from 12 furlongs to 10 furlongs in this spot, which might help the son of Churchill sustain his bid even better in the stretch run.

With The Foxes 7/2 on the morning line, the listed second choice Far Bridge looks unappealing at 4-1 after running second in both the American Turf (G2) and the local Pennine Ridge (G2). He lost the latter race at 8/5.

As long as The Foxes translates his form to America, he will win.

Win: No. 11 at 8-5 or longer.

Daily double: No. 11 with 3, 8.

Belmont Park race 10: Victory Ride Stakes (G3)

With speed fillies such as Maple Leaf Mel, Dazzling Blue and Downtown Mischief present, the pace scenario sets up as a fast one on paper.

As long as the pace does not completely collapse, Red Carpet Ready can strike first when the leaders tire on the turn and take control from an outside stalking position. Just two months ago, she won the Eight Belles (G2) at Churchill Downs by a head over the flashy speedster Munnys Gold after initially stalking in a four-wide position.

If Red Carpet Ready does not fire, then Vahva could put in a winning run from midpack. Vahva also competed on the Kentucky Oaks undercard and won an earlier optional claiming race by a half-length margin over Undervalued Asset after initially settling in fifth through the opening quarter.

Vahva also possesses speed if the race calls for more aggressive tactics. Two starts ago in a Keeneland optional claimer, Vahva ran as a presser and put Black Forest away, before losing to Positano Sunset by half a length.

Red Carpet Ready and Vahva are the two fillies to use.