Saturday Plays: Wood Memorial Pick 4, Blue Grass and more

With three different Derby points races on Saturday and many other graded stakes races, fans can watch racing all day and not get bored.  

From a betting standpoint, the Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct, Grade 1, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby appear chalky. Players need to either go beyond the minimum bet amounts or hope the public ignores some horses.

Here are picks covering all three points races and a late pick 4 at Aqueduct.

Aqueduct Race 8: Wood Memorial Stakes (G2)

Morello owns both a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 99 BRIS Speed Rating for winning the Gotham Stakes (G3) last month, giving him the field-high speed figure on those two brands.

When speed figure makers are in agreement over the fastest horse, it gives the handicapper an extra boost of confidence the number is right.

Can Morello stretch out to nine furlongs? On paper, there is nothing disqualifying in his pedigree. He is a son of Classic Empire, who won the 2017 Arkansas Derby (G1) and ran a close second in the Preakness Stakes the following month. On the bottom side, Morello shares the same second dam as Social Inclusion, the third-place finisher in the 2014 Wood Memorial. 

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As long as he stays 8-5 or higher, Morello is playable.

Win: 5 (at 8/5 or higher)

Pick 4: 5 / 8 / 2,3,5 / 3,5,6

Aqueduct Race 9: Carter Handicap (G1)

Speaker’s Corner has developed into a fast horse who loves to win.

To start the season, Speaker’s Corner won the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream by 1 1/4 lengths over Fearless with a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Then in early March, Speaker’s Corner won the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) by 5 1/2 lengths over the same runner-up with a 122 on TimeformUS.

Now Speaker’s Corner cuts back to seven furlongs, the distance of his maiden win. He also won a seven-furlong allowance at Saratoga.

Expect Speaker’s Corner to pick up his first Grade 1 here.  

Aqueduct Race 10: Gazelle Stakes (G3)

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Greatitude is supposed to secure an uncontested lead through slow fractions. Is she good enough to win?

Greatitude’s non-threatening fifth in the Forward Gal Stakes (G3) looks like a poor effort. Look back at her career debut three starts ago though. She only lost by a head to Kathleen O., who is now a major Kentucky Oaks contender.

Both Todd Pletcher and Repole Stable trust Greatitude enough to enter her in this spot, which is a sign of confidence despite the poor last start.

Otherwise, Venti Valentine is an obvious choice following her neck loss to the respected Nest in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) last December and smashing seven-length win in the Busher Invitational upon returning last month.

Nostalgic deserves a look too after winning a Gulfstream optional claiming race last month by 6 3/4 lengths. Although she ran fourth by 4 1/2 lengths in the Demoiselle last December, she sports a nice pedigree for running longer and she might improve now as a 3-year-old filly.

Aqueduct Race 11: Bay Shore Stakes (G3)

Dean’s List faded in the stretch of the Gotham while losing by 4 1/2 lengths to the winner Morello. The connections wisely chose to avoid the Wood Memorial and cut him back to seven furlongs in this spot instead.

Highly Respected broke his maiden locally at first asking on Feb. 26 by 1 1/4 lengths with a 105 on TimeformUS. He might step forward for trainer Chad Brown, who finished third in this race with Crowded Trade last year.

Doctor Jeff won the Atlantic Beach Stakes on turf to close out his 2-year-old season. He also broke his maiden at first asking on dirt last June at Belmont. His flop as the favorite in the Saratoga Special (G2) afterwards is forgivable given his lack of experience heading into it.

As a 3-year-old, Doctor Jeff might return as a stronger and better colt.

Keeneland Race 9: Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Smile Happy and Zandon completed the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds behind a major Kentucky Derby contender in Epicenter.

Rattle N Roll closed mildly for fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), a race which Epicenter also captured in an impressive fashion.

Because Smile Happy, Zandon and to a lesser extent Rattle N Roll performed well at the Fair Grounds circuit, they deserve the most respect. Fair Grounds had a quality group of 3-year-olds in all their prep races.

Win: 4 (at 7/2 or higher)

Win/place: 9 (at 12-1 or higher)

Santa Anita Race 6: Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Messier made a mockery of the field in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) with an incredible 15-length win and 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

He needs one of his stablemates to soften up the free-wheeling pacesetter Forbidden Kingdom, who won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) in his last start.

Perhaps Taiba can go after Forbidden Kingdom in the early stages, while Messier stalks them in third or fourth. Messier could also contest the pace, making him a versatile runner for new trainer Tim Yakteen.

Messier is the selection.

If at all possible though, avoid betting this race.