Saturday Plays: Single Wicked Halo in Raven Run at Keeneland

Last Saturday the blog single Your So Sillea paid $8.40 to win in Keeneland race 8 and the suggested double of Your So Sillea with Gina Romantica in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) paid $22.76 for every $1 bet.

Smash Ticket and Wicked Halo headline the Grade 2, $350,000 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. One race before the Raven Run is a nine-furlong allowance race on dirt for 3-year-olds and up with a full field present.  

Time to visit the same well and construct another double at Keeneland.

Keeneland race 8: Allowance

Given the presence of both speed horses Film Star and Strong Quality, the pace looks fast enough to give closers a shot at taking the race.  

The two closers who some offer value are Tiz Rye Time and Higginson, who both drew well in Posts No. 4 and No. 5 in this large field of 12 runners.

Tiz Rye Time deserves respect off his closing third-place finish in an Oct. 1 allowance race at Churchill Downs. He only lost by 2 1/4 lengths to Open Road, who won the race after battling Strong Quality for the entire stretch. Give Tiz Rye Time some credit for navigating through traffic. 

Higginson has only started once for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Curlin broke his maiden at first asking by three-quarters of a length in a one-turn mile on Sept. 18 at Churchill Downs with only a 97 on TimeformUS. Considering Cox does not crank his first-time starters to run their best, there is probably more to him than the average speed figure.

Unless the pace changes through scratches, both horses deserve a spot in the listed double below.

Double: 4,5 / 8

Keeneland race 9: Raven Run Stakes (G2)

Smash Ticket has made a step forward under the care of her new trainer Rob Atras. In her most recent start, she won the Weather Vane Stakes at Pimlico by 6 1/4 lengths with a career-best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

However, Smash Ticket lacks any experience at seven furlongs and Atras typically wins most of his bigger races in the state of New York.  

The safer option is Wicked Halo, who is oddly listed at 4-1 on the morning line. In her most recent start, she took the Prioress Stakes (G2) at Saratoga by a neck with a 115 on TimeformUS after a good stalking trip.

Wicked Halo is probably even better at seven furlongs.

Look back to the seven-furlong Leslie’s Lady Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs on June 12. In that race, Wicked Halo made use of pressing tactics against the pacesetter Pretty Birdie, before putting her away in the stretch to win by 2 1/4 lengths. Pretty Birdie is a good sprinter, but she simply lost to Wicked Halo with no excuse late.

Wicked Halo earned a 115 on TimeformUS in that race as well.

With trainer Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds behind Wicked Halo, she is likely to receive some extra attention from bettors. Regardless, she probably deserves odds closer to 5-2 anyway than the generous 4-1 morning line.

If Wicked Halo does remain at 4-1, those are great odds for a good filly who still owns some upside after nine starts dating back to last year.

Win: 8 (at 5/2 or higher)