Saturday Plays: Focus on the Belmont Stakes program
On Saturday, Belmont Park offers nine graded stakes races, including the featured $1.5 million Belmont Stakes for 3-year-olds to close out the Triple Crown trail.
Below is short analysis for the six dirt graded stakes races on the card, with a mixture of a few singles, value selections and spread picks.
Belmont Race 3: Woody Stephens (G1)
Nova Rags might come across as the fourth best horse on paper in this six-horse field. Regardless, he deserves consideration because of the pending pace scenario.
The speedy Drain the Clock has drawn inside of Jackie’s Warrior, who owns even more speed. Plus, Caddo River starts on the outside and might contest the pace as well. With those three names, there is more than one way the fractions may end up too fast.
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Notice how Nova Rags loses ground in the stretch run of nine-furlong races. The longer distance actually flattens out his punch, while his two lifetime wins came at six and seven furlongs. In this spot, his late move is likely to appear sharper cutting back to seven furlongs, especially if the early pace sets up in favor of him.
This is a longshot play, and one with some risk since he needs a setup.
Nova Rags offers enough value for a win and place bet at 10-1 or higher.
For those who want a non-traditional betting route, then a backwheel key is in order. To backwheel key Nova Rags in an exacta or trifecta, put Nova Rags in the second or third slot alone underneath Drain the Clock, Jackie’s Warrior and Dream Shake, and possibly even Caddo River. The point of the bet is that Nova Rags fires a big race without winning.
Belmont Race 4: Brooklyn Stakes (G2)
Tizamagician has taken a long time to develop, but he looks ready to take the next step into a consistent stakes horse, at certain distances.
This is the time for Tizamagician to emerge as a top dirt marathoner after winning the 1 1/2-mile Tokyo City Cup at Santa Anita by an impressive nine lengths. He won over the field fairly easily.
In shorter route races, Tizamagician is not a consistent runner because he lacks the right acceleration to put away fields. The son of Tiznow keeps running at the same pace, which is the sign of a marathoner.
Tactics-wise, Tizamagician is going to fall in a perfect spot in third behind Musical Heart and Moretti. He does not absolutely need the lead.
Trainer Richard Mandella does not ship outside California often, but that is not a huge concern. He ships if there is a deserving horse in the barn.
Given Tizamagician's tactical speed and huge win last time, he is a possible single.
Belmont Race 5: Acorn Stakes (G1)
Search Results ran a great race in the Kentucky Oaks. She only lost by a neck to Malathaat with a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is the highest speed figure in the field.
Cutting back to one mile is not an issue, as Search Results won the one-mile Busher Invitational by half a length over Miss Brazil back in March at Aqueduct. The half-a-length margin might not seem great, but keep in mind that Miss Brazil led uncontested through fractions of 24.53 and 49.64, giving her every advantage late.
This time, Miss Brazil will find some early company in Dayoutoftheoffice and Travel Column, who starts from the rail and may need to hustle to establish position. If not, Search Results can always take up the pressing role.
Search Results is a worthy single.
Belmont Race 7: Ogden Phipps (G1)
With the unlucky defections of Swiss Skydiver and Valiance, this is not a great race to bet vertically since the odds shift down with each scratch. Still, the race remains a great matchup between two sharp runners in Letruska and Shedaresthedevil.
In her most recent start, Letruska defeated Monomoy Girl after a stirring stretch battle in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1). She earned a career high 123 on TimeformUS for the win.
As for Shedaresthedevil, this filly recently took the La Troienne Stakes (G1) in April at Churchill Downs. She won by a modest one length over Envoutante with only a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, Shedaresthedevil also won by a head over Letruska in the Azeri Stakes (G2) back in March with a 121 on TimeformUS.
Last September, Shedaresthedevil also won the Kentucky Oaks over Swiss Skydiver and Gamine with a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The recent 111 seems like an anomaly, as she is capable of 120+ figures.
For an upset option, Bonny South is one to think about using in multi-race wagers.
Last year, she ran second to Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama Stakes (G1). This year, Bonny South returned with a hard-fought win in the Doubledogdare Stakes (G3) at Keeneland with a 112 on TimeformUS.
Considering this is Bonny South's second start off the bench, she could move forward.
Belmont Race 9: Metropolitan Handicap (G1)
Knicks Go won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last November with a 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Two months later, he won the Pegasus World Cup with a 133.
Furthermore, Knicks Go is reliable 4 for 5 under trainer Brad Cox. His only loss under Cox came in the Saudi Cup where he needed to play a chess game on the front end with the other main speed Charlatan. Knicks Go tried to let Charlatan lead before challenging him on the turn and momentarily hitting the front, but the strategy failed to work out as Knicks Go ended up fading in the stretch to fourth.
Luckily, Charlatan is not present in this race to bother Knicks Go up front. While Mischevious Alex owns some speed too, it is not the blazing kind of speed that can easily contest the lead against Knicks Go.
If Knicks Go runs his usual effort under Brad Cox and hits the 130 range on TimeformUS, then he wins.
Otherwise, Dr Post might move forward in his second start off the bench after winning his return race in the Westchester Stakes with a 120 on TimeformUS. Last year, Dr Post also showed promise by finishing second in the Belmont Stakes (G1), third in the Haskell Stakes (G1) and fourth in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2).
For the bottom slots, throw in By My Standards. He could win as well, but it is unclear if the pace scenario will set up for his closing run.
For multi-race wagers, the two main options to use are Knicks Go and Dr Post. By My Standards is a third option, if the ticket is affordable.
Belmont Race 11: Belmont Stakes
Known Agenda gives the impression of a natural marathon runner.
For one, his three career wins including the Florida Derby (G1) all came at nine furlongs. When horses need nine furlongs to even win a race, it normally indicates the horse wants to even longer. He also won an option claiming race at Gulfstream and broke his maiden at nine furlongs over a familiar horse in Greatest Honour.
When Known Agenda tried to cut back in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), he failed to hit the board in fifth. But, he also made up a ton of ground in the lane and only lost by 4 ¼ lengths. Considering he initially began 10 lengths behind, the late gain is significant.
In the Kentucky Derby, Known Agenda could not clear the field from the inside and subsequently started from 16th and 14 lengths behind. Watch how he picks off horses through traffic though and works his way into ninth by the end of the race.
Remember that the Belmont is less about speed figures and more about finding a steady runner who knows how to ration out his energy over the marathon distance.
Besides Known Agenda, Rock Your World is also capable of winning while offering value.
Rock Your World needs to break well and secure the lead.
He already owns the high TimeformUS Pace Figures with a pair of early 148s in the first half of his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win over Medina Spirit. With that said, he does not need to run that fast in order to secure the Belmont lead, where horses run at a slower marathon pace.
Once Rock Your World secures the lead, he needs to relax and ration out that speed over 1 ½ miles in “Da’ Tara style.” Watch the 2008 edition of this race. If he can lead in that relaxed fashion, then he can win.