Saturday Plays: Value picks for Blame, Matt Winn and more
Last Saturday, Get Smokin in the Seek Again Stakes at Belmont and Sconsin in the Winning Colors Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs provided two wins for this blog. The former paid $10.80 to win, while the latter paid $4.20 as the public second choice.
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This Saturday, the focus is on three specifically chosen dirt graded stakes races at Churchill Downs including the $150,000 Blame Stakes, the Grade 3, $150,000 Matt Winn Stakes and the $150,000 Aristides Stakes.
Here are the two or three best options in each of the above races.
Churchill Downs Race 6: Blame Stakes
South Bend returned with a solid effort on April 17 in a Keeneland
allowance optional claiming race. Despite a slow pace with fractions of
24.18 and 48.67, he closed with a wide move and mowed down the leaders to win
by a length.
For the return victory, South Bend earned a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
Given South Bend’s close second-place finish in the Ohio Derby (G3) last summer, the stretchout back to nine furlongs in this race is not supposed to pose a problem. If South Bend only improves a few points above his return 114 on TimeformUS, then expect him to seriously contend for the win again. Most horses step forward in their second start off the layoff.
Bettors seeking a second option might look at American Dubai and his seven length romp in an April 24 Oaklawn optional claiming race at nine furlongs. In that surprisingly easy win, American Dubai made his first start for trainer Robertino Diodoro and somehow dominated a familiar stakes horse in Bankit, who finished distant second without threatening him at all.
American Dubai shows a huge 121 on TimeformUS for the Oaklawn win, which is almost unbelievable given he had not broken 120 since September 2017. He is a horse to use in multi-race wagers off that wake-up effort.
The third selection is Sprawl, who took a local optional claiming race by 7 ¼ lengths on May 9 over the slop with a 116 on TimeformUS. Given he lost on slop to a couple of these foes in the Ben Ali Stakes (G3) two starts ago, it is hard to call him a wet track specialist. The huge effort just came out of nowhere. With that said, a little rain will not hurt his cause either.
Perhaps trainer Tom Drury Jr. has figured out Sprawl after three starts under his care.
Churchill Downs Race 9: Matt Winn Stakes (G3)
Ready to Pounce’s maiden win at Keeneland on April 21 is one to watch.
After stalking on the inside, he made an early move and took control of the front under his own power by the far turn. At that point, only the Chad Brown-trained Realm of Law had a chance to challenge him, and Ready to Pounce put him away easily.
Even though Ready to Pounce only won an off-the-turf maiden race, he gave an excellent visual impression of a young horse with a bright future.
For the winning effort, Ready to Pounce posted only a 104 on TimeformUS, downgraded from a raw 106 because of the slow-paced scenario. The 104 figure is acceptable for a colt who made his second career start and first route attempt.
To give an idea of the favorites’ speed figures, Helium earned a 110 on TimeformUS for his eighth in the Kentucky Derby, while O Besos picked up a 114 for running fifth. The expected third choice Fulsome earned a 101 for winning the Oaklawn Stakes, although he had run a 107 two starts ago.
At 15-1 on the morning line, Ready to Pounce offers enough value. If his odds drop slightly, that is acceptable as well, as long as he does not dip into a crazy low range. In all likelihood, the low-profile trainer Neil Pessin will keep most casual bettors away.
As for the second option, Helium is the more logical choice out of the two Kentucky Derby horses since he owns better early speed.
Helium used that tactical speed in the Derby and traveled in fourth for the first two quarters, before fading to eighth in the lane and 10 ½ lengths behind the winner Medina Spirit. Remember that Helium went into the race with no final prep race. It is no wonder he gave way late.
Two starts ago, Helium also won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) after a stretch battle with Hidden Stash, who is admittedly not a hard opponent.
Ready to Pounce and Helium are the two horses for multi-race wagers. If Ready to Pounce starts at double-digit odds, that is enough value for a win and place bet.
Churchill Downs Race 10: Aristides Stakes
Ignore Edgemont Road’s turf flop.
Back in January, Edgemont Road won an optional claiming race at Tampa Bay by a head over Zenden. One month later, Edgemont Road was then third to Zenden in the Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay once again, with Souper Stonehenge in second.
Souper Stonehenge went on to finish third in the Carter Handicap (G1).
Zenden won the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) on the Dubai World Cup undercard in his next start, although he tragically suffered a fatal injury.
The point is that Edgemont Road ran against some good horses in those quiet Tampa Bay sprint races. At double-digit odds, this is a win and place bet candidate.
If not Edgemont Road, Empire of Gold and Tap It To Win are logical.
Empire of Gold took an optional claiming race last month at Oaklawn with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He owns useful speed in a race that lacks speed. Empire of Gold also ran third in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) earlier in April, only losing to the sharp C Z Rocket by 3 ½ lengths and the familiar Whitmore in second.
If he secures the lead, Empire of Gold could prove tough to catch.
Tap It To Win folded to 11th and 14 lengths behind in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) after pressing a fast pace. Two starts ago, he won the NYRABets Sprint Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure off a 204-day layoff.
Forget about Tap It To Win’s failure in the Churchill Downs Stakes. This is a quality sprinter who deserves a spot in multi-race wagers.