Saturday Plays: Two singles on Fayette Stakes card

Last Saturday, the suggested double of Tiz Rye Time and Wicked Halo at Keeneland paid $44.21 for every $1. Two weeks ago, the Your So Sillea and Gina Romantica blog double, also at Keeneland, paid $22.76 for every $1.

Time to reach for the same well. The featured double below covers the Grade 3, $300,000 Bryan Station Stakes and Grade 2, $350,000 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. Also listed is a second double play for two undercard races earlier on the Fayette card.  

Keeneland race 3: Allowance

After a successful career in Chile, Le Da Vida made her debut in North America last month in an optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. After stalking the pace slightly wide, Le Da Vida took over in the stretch run and drew clear from the field to win by three lengths on the wrong lead.

The failure to switch leads is a mistake, but it gets a pass because she did finish strongly towards the wire in 1:35.32 for the one-mile distance. She also earned a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 93 Briset Speed Rating, which gives this 5-year-old mare the high last-race speed figure on both brands.

Although the morning line favorite Envoutante owns some past races that could beat Le Da Vida, she is currently in poor form with two double-digit length losses in three starts this year. Perhaps she is not the same runner.

Mariah’s Princess poses a threat as well, but she comes off a layoff.

Le Da Vida is the single at 5/2 or higher.

Win: 3 (at 5/2 or higher)

Double: 3 / 7

Keeneland race 4: Allowance

Olga Isabel came off a 154-day layoff to cross the wire first by a head over Jag Warrior in a local seven-furlong allowance race on Oct. 7. She completed the distance in 1:23.65 while earning a good 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The 108 may sound low, but most of the fillies in this field cannot break 100.

Unfortunately, Olga Isabel interfered with Jag Warrior and became disqualified. But, the effort made for a good starting point after the layoff.

Now, Olga Isabel enters another seven-furlong allowance and figures to utilize her main weapon of speed once again to lead the field uncontested.

In addition, seeing Joel Rosario take the mount again does not hurt.  

Keeneland race 8: Bryan Station Stakes (G3)

When studying Ready to Purrform, cross out the recent effort at Kentucky Downs. Compared to most turf courses in North America, Kentucky Downs offers a strange course configuration that not all horses here adapt well to.  

Without the Kentucky Downs effort to blemish Ready to Purrform’s record, readers are left with three solid one-mile turf efforts this year at other tracks. Ready to Purrform ran second in the James W. Murphy Stakes, third in the Manilla Stakes and first in the Hall of Fame Stakes (G3). In the Hall of Fame win, Ready to Purrform set the pace and won by 1 1/4 lengths.

In this spot, Ready to Purrform can either set the pace or fall into the inside pocket position right behind the expected pacesetter Classic Causeway.

Ready to Purrform does not absolutely need lead, as he broke his maiden last year with stalking tactics and won the Laurel Futurity as a closer. If Classic Causeway fails to break sharp for any reason though, it will not hurt to see Ready to Purrform take advantage and use his speed on the rail.

Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Joel Rosario make for a potent combination, as TimeformUS says they won 22 times out of 37 tries over the past year.

Wit is the morning line favorite at 3-1, yet Ready to Purrform beat him fair and square in the Hall of Fame Stakes with Wit only non-threatening second.

Ready to Purrform is the single and fair at 7/2 or higher.

Win: 1 (at 7/2 or higher)

Double: 1 / 3,6

Keeneland race 9: Fayette Stakes (G2)

Last Samurai deserves one more chance from bettors.

Forget about Last Samurai’s midpack finish in the Charles Town Classic. Like the old Fairplex Park, Charles Town offers a unique experience as a bullring.    

Last Samurai also gets a pass for his seventh-place finish in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) back in June. He went wide on the first turn through a fast pace, and most horses do not recover from a wide trip and fast pace combination.

Two starts ago at Ellis Park in the R.A. “Cowboy” Jones Overnight Stakes, Last Samurai ran a decent third while only losing by 3/4 length to Injunction. For that race, he earned a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Last Samurai’s “big” effort though came back in April in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) when he won by four lengths with a 121 on TimeformUS. The concern is that he regressed slightly on the switch from trainer Dallas Stewart to D. Wayne Lukas after the career-best win in the Oaklawn Handicap.

If not Last Samurai, Fulsome might also make amends after finishing a mild fifth in the Ack Ack Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. This son of Into Mischief certainly loves to win, as his 8 for 15 record shows.   

Before the Ack Ack this year, Fulsome won the Oaklawn Mile (G3), a $150,000 optional-claiming race at Churchill Downs and the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes.

The trainer and jockey combination of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux earned a 98 rating on TimeformUS. Together, the Cox and Geroux combination is hitting at 24 percent out of 304 starts over the past year.

The only question is whether Fulsome receives enough pace in this race to kick in. Regardless, he deserves his spot on the double ticket alongside of Last Samurai.