Saturday plays: Intriguing maidens, Louisiana Derby pick

One of the major lessons in betting horses is to not chase. Rather, it is more practical to wait for the right race, or sequence for multi-race wagers.

With that in mind, the undercard selections for the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby card at Fair Grounds are limited to four races, including two strong maiden special weights, the New Orleans Classic (G2) and the previously discussed Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). A recap of the Louisiana Derby analysis is also included at the bottom. 

Here are the selections for March 20 at Fair Grounds.  

Fair Grounds Race 5: Maiden, 3YO

Koolhaus’ running line from his career debut on Feb. 16 shows a nice Z pattern. In the first half mile, he lost ground by falling from seventh and only 5 ¼ lengths off the leader to a troubling eight lengths behind. But in the stretch run, Koolhaus made a strong rally to secure third place and only lose by two lengths with a nice gallop out afterwards.

Even though Wild for Wycliff set the pace and held on for second, Koolhaus came out looking stronger at the end from a visual standpoint, especially after a slow 46.31 half mile. Not only did Koolhaus overcome his greenness to finish third, but he overcame a slow pace as well. 

Take a look at the exciting pedigree for Koolhaus. This is a Nyquist colt out of the dam Holy Place, who is a half-sister to the $2.9 million earner Lady Eli. In the future, the connections might want to consider routes for this well-bred colt.

For now though, Koolhaus should handle this field for trainer Brad Cox if he breaks sharper. The switch to jockey Florent Geroux is a good sign.

Fair Grounds Race 7: Maiden, 3YO Fillies

For the most part, betting on first-time starters is a difficult way to win. But, the pedigree for Speightharmony stands out enough to take a shot.

Speightharmony’s first dam is Leslie’s Harmony, which immediately sparks interest because of the first part of the name. It turns out that Speightharmony's second dam is Leslie’s Lady, the well-known dam of Beholder, Into Mischief and Mendelssohn.

Into Mischief won his first career start, while Beholder and Mendelssohn both broke their maidens in their second starts. This family is meant to start winning early.

As with Koolhaus, Cox trains Speightharmony and Geroux takes the mount. According to TimeformUS, the combination has won 25 percent of the time over the past year. On TimeformUS own rating system, they give the Geroux/Cox combo a perfect 100.  

Expect a strong effort from this precociously-bred filly.  

Fair Grounds Race 11: New Orleans Classic (G2)

Chess Chief is not as exciting as those 2-year-olds, but he is a respectable 5-year-old horse who tends to earn paychecks for his connections by hitting the board more often than not.

In this spot, Chess Chief is capable of winning.

The race lacks pace and Chess Chief gains the services of jockey Luis Saez, who is known as an aggressive jockey who likes to make use of early speed.

In terms of value, Chess Chief is certain to offer attractive odds. He only lost second by half a length to Sonneman in the Mineshaft Stakes (G3). Yet, Sonneman is listed at 9/2 on the morning line, while Chess Chief is 6-1. It is more logical to play Chess Chief than Sonneman if they offer roughly the same ability, or even if Chess Chief is only a little behind.

As for the morning line favorite Owendale, he did finish a decent third in the Razorback Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn, although over seven lengths behind the sharp winner Mystic Guide. However, Owendale’s six-race losing streak is a legitimate concern, as well as the slow projected pace.

Chess Chief is the value choice. If Saez sends this horse near the front as a close-range stalker, he can win the New Orleans Classic.

Fair Grounds Race 13: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)

As stated in an earlier Odds & Analysis post, Li’l Tootsie shows a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her smashing maiden win at six furlongs on Jan. 16. The 107 figure is higher than any TimeformUS number for either Clairiere or Travel Column.

When Li’l Tootsie took a local optional claiming race in her Feb. 12 start at two turns, she failed to win in the same flashy manner with only a 1 ¼-length margin and 96 on TimeformUS. However, she earns the benefit of the doubt for closing into a slow pace over slop, as well as competing at 1 1/16 miles for the first time. 

Even though Li’l Tootsie lacks graded stakes experience, Clairiere and Travel Column are not exactly monsters on final times or figures. With a route win under Li’l Tootsie’s belt, she can build off the effort and post a mild upset over the two favorites.

Fair Grounds Race 14: Louisiana Derby (G2)

As stated earlier in the week, Proxy deserves one more chance.

Although he has finished second twice in Derby trail races at Fair Grounds, Proxy receives blinkers for the first time and stretches out to 1 3/16 miles for the Louisiana Derby (G2). The change in equipment and distance might help him find a few more lengths, which is all he needs to turn the tables on Mandaloun.

In any case, Mandaloun projects to offer low odds again. He only won the Risen Star Stakes (G2) by 1 ¼ lengths over Proxy, which is not a huge margin in dirt racing. Even Midnight Bourbon in third was only 1 ¾ lengths behind Mandaloun. Plus, it is hard to tell how the shipper Hot Rod Charlie fits against this group. He could pose a winning threat. 

Proxy might not win by a huge margin, but he is capable of grinding his way to the winner’s circle. At third choice or higher, think about playing hm.