Saturday plays: Tapit's Conquest looks best in Risen Star

With a fast pace on tap in the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, bettors might want to find a horse who can close in a strong manner. Given the large field though, it could also prove wise to choose a horse who can find a position in midpack or better to avoid traffic, as overcoming a 14-horse field is not easy.

The final Risen Star selection is below, along with analysis and bets for the Race 8 optional claimer and Grade 2, $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes.

Fair Grounds Race 8: Allowance

The expected favorite Banishing is capable of becoming a major contender in the 3-year-old division. He broke his maiden in a local Dec. 26 maiden special weight by 8 1/2 lengths at the same mile and one-sixteenth distance as this race and might win this race by a big margin.

Banishing is probable to become overbet though, especially with no races since the maiden romp. Another option to consider at a better value price is Tapit Shoes, who ran fourth while running green in the stretch run of a local Jan. 21 optional claiming race. He ran behind Determinedly, Tapit’s Conquest and Silver Heist, and notably all three of those names are competing in the featured Risen Star later in the card.

Back in December, Tapit Shoes broke his maiden on this course at the same distance by 7 1/2 lengths. When he applies himself, this colt can explode.

If Tapit Shoes can perform in a professional manner, he can win. It depends though on whether Banishing needs one start to warm up. 

Win/place: 4 (at 4-1 or higher)

Fair Grounds Race 12: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

Hoosier Philly stands as one of the best 3-year-old fillies in the division, if not the best, after easy wins in the Rags to Riches Stakes and Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall. The three-for-three filly won the former race by 7 1/2 lengths over slop and the latter by five lengths over fast dirt. Both wins came at the same mile and one-sixteenth distance. 

Yet, Hoosier Philly might need one race to get back into the flow of a new campaign. After all, the goal is to peak in the Kentucky Oaks.

What if Miracle can steal the race on the front end for trainer Todd Pletcher?

When Miracle competed last October, she led for most of the Maid of the Mist Stakes for New York-breds before Les Bon Temps caught her. Regardless, Miracle had an impressive 13 lengths on the third-place filly, which is a strong signal that the first two fillies put in a quality effort. 

Miracle starts off the layoff in this spot and now starts for trainer Todd Pletcher after running under Rodolphe Brisset last year. Despite the layoff though and the fact she only shows experience against New York-bred horses, Miracle's first start is in the Rachel Alexandra. Pletcher is showing confidence by placing this filly in a Grade 2 race off the bat.

Also consider Chop Chop, who battled The Alys Look for the entire stretch run of the local Silverbulletday Stakes before finishing second. Chop Chop also closed well for second in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) last October and brings proven class to this race because of those efforts. 

Miracle is useful as a backwheel key underneath, and as a win bet.

Win: 6 (at 10-1 or higher)

Exacta: 2,4 / 6

Fair Grounds Race 13: Risen Star Stakes (G2)

Victory Formation, Harlocap and Determinedly all bring speed into this race and might help set up the race for either a stalker or closer. In this race, stalkers or midpack types are preferable because of the field size.

Tapit’s Conquest is the type of colt who can either stalk the pace around third or fourth, or travel in midpack at worst through early on.

In Tapit’s Conquest’s most recent start, he closed well for second in the aforementioned Jan. 21 optional claimer where Tapit Shoes ran an awkward fourth. Unlike Tapit Shoes though, Tapit’s Conquest's problems came when he encountered significant traffic problems in the stretch while running behind the winner Determinedly and next to Silver Heist.

Florent Geroux needed to tip Tapit’s Conquest outside of Determinedly, but he opted to wait for room instead of making a more aggressive try to switch lanes. To Tapit’s Conquest’s credit, he only lost by a neck.

Note the final time of the race. Determinedly completed the mile and one-sixteenth in 1:45.26 after a slow pace, while Instant Coffee completed the same distance in 1:45.12 in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) later on the card following faster fractions. Imagine if Tapit’s Conquest had the same pace as Instant Coffee to worth with.  

Tapit’s Conquest’s stablemate Victory Formation is the expected favorite and formidable opponent given his three-length win in the Smarty Jones Stakes. He faces a tough post position though and the early efforts of trying to put away Harlocap and Determinedly might weaken him. 

As long as the price remains reasonable, Tapit’s Conquest is better for win or place purposes. In multi-race wagers, use him alongside Victory Formation.

Win: 8 (at 9/2 or higher)