Saturday Plays: Suburban, Delaware Oaks lead selections

Two major players in the older male dirt router division meet in the Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban on Saturday at Belmont Park. As stated before, in some situations it is OK to choose the favorite if the horse’s recent record merits the odds. In this case, bettors might receive even money on the top dirt router in America.

With that said, betting Mystic Guide does not come without any concerns. Can he handle the layoff after his Dubai victory while beating Happy Saver, his old opponent who beat him last fall?

Belmont Park Race 10: $400,000 Suburban (G2)

Mystic Guide first took a step forward last year when blinkers were added. With blinkers, he won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and ran second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) by ¾ of a length to Happy Saver before both runners went on the shelf.

This year, Mystic Guide made his return in the Razorback Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn in February and gave a crushing blow to the field with a six-length victory. He then went overseas and won the Dubai World Cup (G1) at Meydan Racecourse by 3¾ lengths with a 130 figure on the overseas Timeform. At that point, he became the best dirt router in the world.

With that said, Mystic Guide does need to deal with a short three-month layoff and the possibility of a “Dubai-bounce.” Some horses return the same and some require a race or two to shake off the effects. For what it is worth, he is training fast with a four-furlong bullet work last Saturday.

Happy Saver made his return in a local optional claiming race in May and won. It is possible that he moves forward off the optional claiming win and beats Mystic Guide again, but he will need to handle Lasix-off.

Max Player also has some talent and could finally move forward in his third start off the bench. He still needs to prove he can win against the best horses though.

Mystic Guide is the top selection at even money. For the best dirt router in the world, those are fair odds.

Delaware Park Race 8: $300,000 Delaware Oaks (G3)

The 6-5 favorite Crazy Beautiful is not that fast of a filly on TimeformUS Speed Figures. Her top number is 104, which is not insurmountable for some of the fillies here.

It makes sense to search elsewhere.

One interesting name is Hybrid Eclipse, who enters off an optional claiming win at Parx with a 97 on TimeformUS. Three starts ago, she also won an optional claiming race at Laurel Park by six lengths at the same route distance as this race.

Hybrid Eclipse broke her maiden by 3¾ lengths at Aqueduct back in January. Maracuja was third in that race, and she eventually finished second in the Gazelle Stakes (G2) in April behind one of the top fillies in Search Results.

In addition, Hybrid Eclipse owns useful tactical speed to put her in the mix early.

At 10-1, Hybrid Eclipse is a good deal. She remains fair at 5-1 or higher. 

Monmouth Park Race 9: $75,000 Regret Stakes

Honey I’m Good is likely to secure an uncontested lead in this race.

Last year, she won the Harmony Lodge Stakes at Belmont with an uncontested lead, before securing another uncontested lead and fading to second by 1½ lengths to Honor Way in the Garland of Roses Stakes at Aqueduct in December.

Honor Way went on to finish third in the Distaff Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct in April, losing only by ¾ of a length to a Grade 1 winner in Paris Lights.

While the 3-2 favorite Bayerness might take the role of Honor Way in this spot, she does her best running on wet dirt. Watch the forecast as the race gets closer.

Assuming a fast or good surface, Honey I’m Good is the choice to wire them.

Pleasanton Race 7: $75,000 Oak Tree Sprint Stakes

Law Abidin Citizen is capable of competing at the highest level, as shown by his third-place finish in the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) last August at Del Mar.

In that race, Law Abidin Citizen had contested a fast pace before fading towards the wire. He only lost by 1¼ lengths to a good horse in Collusion Illusion, who took advantage of the fast fractions.

Law Abidin Citizen then ran third by 1¼ lengths again in the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2) after securing an uncontested lead. The fade is forgivable because he lost to C Z Rocket, a top sprinter who went on to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

After spending 273 days on the shelf, Law Abidin Citizen came back in the May 29 Daytona Stakes (G3) on turf at Santa Anita. After contesting another wicked pace, he faded to fourth this time, which is understandable following a long layoff.   

Now Law Abidin Citizen shows up on the California fair circuit at Pleasanton. Although this is one of nicest tracks on the circuit, he is supposed to outclass this field exiting a Santa Anita Grade 3 race. Notice the 8-5 morning line favorite Anyportinastorm had faded to seventh in that same Bing Crosby after contesting the pace with Law Abidin Citizen.

Do not expect 5-1 on Law Abidin Citizen. More realistically, his odds will drop to 2-1 or 5-2, which are still fair odds. If his odds remain at 5-1 though, that is value on this Grade 1-placed horse.