Saturday Plays: Get 5 plays for Stephen Foster card

With Churchill Downs stacking their remaining graded-stakes races for closing day, the Saturday card looks like a set of opening trials for the Breeders’ Cup in November. The headline event is the Grade 2, $600,000 Stephen Foster Stakes for older horses carded as Race 11, which features the popular Maxfield at low odds.  

The Stephen Foster does not offer great value on top, but there are plenty of other stakes races to bet. Here is a look at four undercard races and the Stephen Foster.

Churchill Downs Race 5: Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2)

Envoutante enters the Fleur de Lis in excellent form for trainer Ken McPeek after winning the local Shawnee Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths and finishing second by one length to a top older filly in Shedaresthedevil in the La Troienne Stakes (G1).

Shedaresthedevil had beaten the current division leader, Letruska, in the Azeri Stakes (G2) back in March. Envoutante ran in the Azeri as well, and she only lost by 2 ¼ lengths in fourth off a 107-day layoff. Maybe she needed the race to get back into the flow of a campaign.

No one denies Letruska is in excellent form, but if Envoutante can slip to 3-1, she might offer enough value to take a shot. Her best effort is not far off Letruska’s usual race.

Churchill Downs Race 8: Debutante Stakes

Ontheonesandtwos made a nice impression in her local maiden win on May 13.

After pressing the Steve Asmussen-trained Tizplenty, Ontheonesandtwos took over by the top of the stretch and held off the closing Green Up on the outside. Tizplenty went on to break her maiden on June 4 by 1 3/4 lengths and shows up in this race to face Ontheonesandtwos again.

Also consider Behave Virginia, who broke her maiden locally on May 28 with a far lower speed figure than Ontheonesandtwos. However, it is important not to get too wrapped up in speed figures and other numbers with babies. Focus on how Behave Virginia won easily for McPeek, while Brian Hernandez Jr. remains on the filly for this race.

Ontheonesandtwos is the top choice, but Behave Virginia is one to include or even think about betting to win, if she starts at her morning line odds of 9/2 or higher.

Churchill Downs Race 9: Bashford Manor Stakes (G3)

Red Run broke her maiden locally over the slop on May 9 with a ho-hum figure, but he sports a great pedigree and familiar connections.

Everyone knows Red Run’s sire Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year who took the Stephen Foster that year en route to his Eclipse Awards. As for the bottom side, Red Run’s dam Red House is a full sister to the champion filly Untapable, who won the 2014 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff among other stakes races for trainer Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds in a special season. Not surprisingly, Red Run has the same trainer and owner combination.

With that pedigree and those connections, Red Run is supposed to improve in his second career start on the stretchout to six furlongs. Given his sire and dam were both champion routers, it is impressive enough that he could handle five furlongs on his first attempt to race.

Lansdowne is also one to consider off his local gate-to-wire victory on May 22. From a visual standpoint, he gave the impression of a talented horse who won easily.

Finally, there is an interesting longshot option in Tapped Off.

Tapped Off’s dam line traces to a familiar name in Lassie Dear. Pedigree enthusiasts already know Lassie Dear as the second dam of the legendary sire A.P. Indy.

Although Tapped Off enters as a maiden off a second-place finish in a local maiden race on June 4, he offers important tactical speed and can move forward here.

Churchill Downs Race 10: Wise Dan Stakes (G2)

Somelikeithotbrown holds the pace advantage and momentum after winning the Dinner Party Stakes (G2) at Pimlico on the Preakness undercard. His fade in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland is easily forgivable because of the fast pace.

The only horse that might give Somelikeithotbrown a hard time on the front end is Field Pass, who was only a few lengths off the torrid pace in the Maker’s Mark Mile and still fought in the lane to finish a respectable fourth by three lengths. In contrast, Somelikeithotbrown faded all the way to seventh, losing by 8 ¾ lengths.

Field Pass also had to endure a fast pace in the Man o’ War Stakes (G1) at Belmont because of Channel Cat’s extremely aggressive tactics in the early stages. After chasing Channel Cat through fast fractions, Field Pass faded to eighth this time.

In other words, Field Pass was pace compromised twice in a row.

Somelikeithotbrown is still the top choice, but Field Pass has a legitimate shot to win with a moderate pace and offers higher odds than Somelikeithotbrown.

Churchill Downs Race 11: Stephen Foster Stakes (G2)

On paper, Maxfield is too talented to lose this race.

Maxfield recently won the local Alysheba Stakes (G2) by 3 ¼ lengths, and also took the Mineshaft Stakes (G3) and Tenacious Stakes earlier in the year at Fair Grounds.

His only loss this year came in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), which is forgivable given his lack of experience at 1 ¼ miles. He also ran without Lasix for the first time. With those factors against him, he still finished a decent third by two lengths.

Even though Maxfield also lacks wins at nine furlongs, it should not pose a problem after watching how easily he won the Alysheba, as well as the Mineshaft Stakes.

For value underneath, use the two closers Chess Chief and South Bend.