Saturday Plays: Single these horses in Kentucky Derby preps

When the stakes action at Remington Park and Los Alamitos ends on Saturday, Giant Mischief and Arabian Lion might find themselves near the top of Derby lists assuming they win their respective races.

Arabian Lion must defeat two talented stablemates from the Bob Baffert barn in the Grade 2, $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity, while Giant Mischief only needs to build on his optional claiming win over Arabian Lion at Keeneland and beat the Saratoga darling Echo Again in the $400,000 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park.

Both runners are the top blog choices. Here is the reasoning behind each selection and some exacta ideas to help the payoffs.

Los Alamitos Race 4: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

Even though accepting a favorite making his route debut is risky most of the time, this situation feels different given Arabian Lion’s pedigree.

The dam line for Arabian Lion extends to Personal Ensign, one of the legends of horse racing who retired undefeated with a 13 for 13 record after capturing the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Churchill Downs over Winning Colors.

Personal Ensign also left a tremendous impact in the breeding world, as a good number of horses who descend from her end up as stakes runners or allowance types. Plus, most of them love longer routes. One of the more recent examples of a successful dirt router descending from Personal Ensign is Dynamic One, who won this year’s Suburban Stakes (G2).

Arabian Lion broke his maiden by three lengths on Oct. 9 at Santa Anita in a six-furlong sprint with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Baffert then sent Arabian Lion to Keeneland to run on the Breeders’ Cup Day 1 undercard, and he ran second to Giant Mischief while only losing by 3/4 length in a seven-furlong optional claiming race. Arabian Lion’s TimeformUS Speed Figure went up two points to 114, and that is the high speed figure here.

Arabian Lion should prevail over his stablemates.

For second, Fort Bragg seems interesting enough after breaking his maiden at Santa Anita on Nov. 4 in a one mile and one-sixteenth route, the same distance as this stakes race. Fort Bragg only won by 3/4 length, but he also acted as green as grass in the stretch and looks capable of more.  

Also note that Fort Bragg outran a fellow Futurity entrant in Practical Move by 1 1/2 lengths on Oct. 10 in a one-mile Santa Anita maiden race, before getting disqualified for interfering with Practical Move on the far turn.  

If Fort Bragg can step forward and show more professionalism, he can complete the exacta.

Exacta: 5 / 3

Remington Park Race 12: Remington Springboard Mile

Giant Mischief meets the Saratoga star Echo Again in what looks like an interesting betting race on paper. Despite fading to seventh in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), the oddsmaker listed Echo Again as the unappealing 9/5 favorite on the morning line, while Giant Mischief is an attractive 3-1 after a strong optional claiming win at Keeneland. 

Before failing in the Iroquois, Echo Again broke his maiden at Saratoga by 6 3/4 lengths in a six-and-a-half furlong sprint with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For a 2-year-old in mid-August, that is great. The number was even adjusted down from a raw 115 because of the slow pace.  

Trainer Steve Asmussen then made the next logical step in entering Echo Again in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. As stated above, Echo Again faded to seventh. But to his credit, Echo Again went four-wide around the first turn from Post 9 and pressed a fast pace set by Damon’s Mound. The two of them opened up slightly before the far turn.

After fading in the Iroquois, Echo Again tried a two-turn route over the slop at Churchill Downs on Oct. 30. This optional claiming race is not seen in the past performances because it was called off on the backside.

Echo Again might redeem himself, or he might turn into Stellar Tap. 

Giant Mischief broke his maiden at Horseshoe Indy in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint by 1 1/2 lengths after overcoming trouble throughout the race.

As stated above, Giant Mischief then went to Keeneland and won a seven-furlong optional claimer by 3/4 length over Arabian Lion. Note the 17 1/2-length gap from Arabian Lion to Old Alliance. The long gap suggests Giant Mischief and Arabian Lion belonged on a separate level than the rest of the field.

Giant Mischief earned a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the win over Arabian Lion, which gives him the high speed figure in this field.

Unlike Arabian Lion though, Giant Mischief looks shaky in his dam line in terms of route potential. His immediate dam Vertical Oak competed solely as a sprinter and won races such as the 2017 Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) and Prioress Stakes (G2). But Vertical Oak’s sire Giant Oak did thrive as a dirt router who won races such as the 2010 Clark Handicap (G1) and 2011 Donn Handicap (G1) among others. Also, Vertical Oak’s half-brother Payne won multiple times at one mile.

Giant Mischief’s own sire Into Mischief can go either way. He can sire runners who win at classic distances, or he could sire sprinters.

In other words, Giant Mischief’s pedigree does not seem fantastic for routes. But Giant Mischief just won a seven-furlong race against Arabian Lion, one of the most promising 2-year-olds, and he only stretches out one more furlong in this spot. Giant Mischief should handle one mile.

In addition, trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux team up again and TimeformUS labels them as a hot pair as usual.

Perhaps Echo Again can fade again and lose second. After all, he remains unproven at route distances off his fade at Churchill Downs. For value in the runner-up spot under Giant Mischief, consider the double-digit longshots Gunflash, Lil Sweet Thang and American Outlaw.

Gunflash broke his maiden locally at six furlongs for trainer Karl Broberg and should love the stretchout to one mile given his half-siblings Royal Mesa, Flash of Mischief and War Campaign all excel at route distances. 

Lil Sweet Thang just took a local one-mile allowance race by one length over American Outlaw with a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Note the eight-length gap from American Outlaw to the third-place Money Run.

While neither of them are likeable on top, Lil Sweet Thang and American Outlaw are the fastest out of the local group and can pick up second.

Win: 5 (at 9/5 or higher)

Exacta: 5 / 2,4,6