Saturday Plays: Bet this single into the QEII Challenge Cup

Last week my single In Italian wired the field in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland and paid $7.74 to win.

Unfortunately, Loggins could not complete the recommended double in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1). To give Loggins credit though, he took all the pressure and still fought valiantly to finish second.

This weekend the only stakes race on Keeneland’s card is the Grade 1, $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup for 3-year-old fillies on turf. One race before that Saturday feature is an allowance dirt sprint for fillies and mares. The race includes an improving 3-year-old filly with under-the-radar connections that will provide solid value. 

Time to construct another daily double.

Keeneland race 8: allowance

Cancel This ran well for third while only losing by head after a wide trip in a Sept. 23 allowance at Churchill Downs. Yet this Dale Romans-trained filly gives the impression of a vulnerable favorite with only one win in 12 starts. In addition, Cancel This does not even hold the highest last-race speed figure.

On TimeformUS figures, Cancel This’s recent 102 for the Sept. 23 effort was one point short of Your So Sillea’s 103 earned in an Oct. 1 maiden race at Churchill Downs.  

In that race nearly two weeks ago, Your So Sillea made use of stalking tactics from fifth before swinging wide on the turn to battle the three fillies in front with one of them being Scarlet Stripe. Your So Sillea and Scarlet Stripe separated from the field in mid-stretch and went to battle, although Your So Sillea held a slim advantage. Your So Sillea eventually won the race by three-quarters of a length.

Your So Sillea won only by a small margin, but note the 7 1/2 lengths between Scarlet Stripe in second and One Time Mo in third. The long gap was a good sign of a fast race for the level. In all likelihood, Your So Sillea defeated a promising runner in Scarlet Stripe.

With Philip Sims as the trainer and Jack Gilligan riding, the value should hold for Your So Sillea. She is the single in a daily double ending with the QEII Challenge Cup.

Win: 6 (at 3-1 or longer).

Double: 6 / 2,4.

Keeneland race 9: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

Trainer Chad Brown sen a new face into this group in Gina Romantica, who shows one turf win and one second in two overall turf starts.

Gina Romantica won the restricted Riskaverse Stakes on Aug. 25 at Saratoga by 1 3/4 lengths over Faith in Humanity in second after a fast pace setup. It was the fifth start of her career but the first one on turf.

In Gina Romantica’s next turf start Sept. 18 at Aqueduct, she made another nice closing bid to finish second in the Pebble Stakes to Faith in Humanity, who enjoyed an uncontested lead through slow fractions throughout the race.

Gina Romantica only lost by a half-length. Considering the pace scenario and her closing style, she put in another fine performance on turf.

To give one cause for concern, Gina Romantica stretches out to nine furlongs in this spot. The immediate family sends mixed signals. Her half-brother Gift Box ran as a successful dirt router who won the 2018 and 2019 San Antonio Stakes, and half-sister Stonetastic competed in sprint races.

If Gina Romantica fails to fire, then New Year’s Eve could upset.

New Year’s Eve had a fast start to racing in December by taking a one-mile, maiden, turf race at Fair Grounds by 1 1/2 lengths after lagging 10 lengths behind in the opening quarter. New Year’s Eve then took an optional claimer at Fair Grounds to start 2022 before running third in the LaCombe Memorial Stakes, losing by only one length after a wide trip.

Two months later, New Year’s Eve won the Edgewood Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs in a visually powerful, closing effort by 2 3/4 lengths.

For some reason, New Year’s Eve form went the other direction in her three most recent starts with an eighth in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1), a flat third by two lengths in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G3) and a fourth in the Dueling Grounds Oaks on the unique Kentucky Downs turf course.

Maybe the extra distance hurt New Year’s Eve. She won twice at the 1 1/16-mile distance, and the other win came at one mile in her debut. In this spot she cuts back to nine furlongs off three longer routes.

New Year’s Eve deserves a spot in this ticket alongside Gina Romantica.