Saturday plays: Single Last Samurai in Oaklawn H. double
Last Samurai makes his bid for three wins in a row for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and Willis Horton Racing LLC in the Grade 2, $1 million Oaklawn Handicap on Saturday. Even with the step forward in class to the Grade 2 level, he looks like a tough customer once again based on his sharp form.
Is Last Samurai worthy of being singled in tickets? Here is a double connecting the Oaklawn Handicap to the Bath House Row.
Oaklawn race 10: Oaklawn Handicap (G2)
The pace scenario looks quick at first glance with Classic Causeway, Stilleto Boy and Charge It possessing speed. But Classic Causeway has never been one to click off blazing fractions, while Stilleto Boy and Charge It may end up sitting off Classic Causeway, or settle nearby.
On paper, the race sets up for a stalker, which is Last Samurai. In most cases, Last Samurai travels about two to three lengths off the lead through the first half-mile, and he should fall in that range again.
After capturing the Razorback Handicap (G3) and Essex Handicap (G3) in his last two starts, Last Samurai has given the impression of a different horse.
In the Razorback, Last Samurai ran down a fast runner in West Will Power, who put a whole seven lengths on the third-place Law Professor. Note that Law Professor won the Excelsior Stakes in his next start.
Last Samurai received an impressive 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Razorback win. Even though Last Samurai regressed to a 115 last time when he won the Essex, he probably did not try his best as he went by the overmatched Classic Causeway under mostly a hand ride.
Why ignore the favorite Charge It? It feels unfair to take Charge It as the favorite in this race after he lost the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) to Endorsed with no excuse at 3/5 odds. Charge It burnt a ton of win money and he needs to prove himself before trusting him at short odds.
Given the pace setup and hot streak, Last Samurai is the single.
Win: 2 (at 8/5 or higher)
Double: 2 / 1,5,9
Oaklawn race 11: Bath House Row
Red Route One enters this dirt race as the 2-1 favorite with no dirt wins and a six-race losing streak. This late runner hardly feels like the right choice.
Victory Formation is listed as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, and he feels like no bargain either after chasing a fast pace in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and fading badly to finish ninth by 15 1/2 lengths.
The race feels open for an upset.
Interlock Empire made no impact in the Arkansas Derby (G1) when eighth. Before that race though, he broke his maiden by five lengths on this course and could contend for the win again against lesser opponents in this spot.
At first glance, Aristocracy looks overmatched on paper with only a maiden claiming win on dirt and an optional claiming win over Turfway synthetic to his credit. But he makes the switch to trainer Robertino Diodoro, who excels at Oaklawn. Diodoro and jockey Cristian Torres are labeled a hot team by TimeformUS.
With his tactical speed, Aristocracy could sit in a nice stalking position. His odds are likely to stay around 20-1, which makes him attractive.
Back in January, Tapit Shoes finished fourth in a tough Fair Grounds optional claiming race won by Determinedly. One month later, Tapit Shoes ended up third by only 3/4 length in another high-quality Fair Grounds optional claimer won by Denington.
Tapit Shoes may sit in a nice spot as well and pick up the pieces if the pace scenario with Powerful, Victory Formation and Two Eagles River heats up.