Saturday plays: Six picks for Santa Anita, Fair Grounds

Although the opening day Grade 1 Malibu Stakes card at Santa Anita Park features a number of probable short-priced winners, the $300,000 American Oaks (G1) contains an interesting 10-1 shot named Red Lark, who figures to close late here after her solid effort at Keeneland.

Red Lark is the highlight of five Saturday Santa Anita selections and a bonus Fair Grounds selection.

Fair Grounds Race 8: Joseph E. Spanky Broussard Memorial Stakes

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Beautiful Trauma projects to lead the field uncontested through a slow pace.

This is a one mile and 70 yard race, while she recently won a one-mile optional claimer at Churchill Downs by 4 1/4 lengths.

Beautiful Trauma also owns a win on this course at the same trip. On Dec. 21 last year, she took a one mile and 70 yard local optional claimer by 16 lengths, although the impressive blowout win came on slop. Regardless, the big-margin win shows two turns, and a slightly longer distance is no problem.

The one negative is that she does not switch leads in the stretch.

Regardless, Beautiful Trauma is the top choice based on the pace scenario.

Santa Anita Race 4: Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes (G2)

Smooth Like Strait cuts back to one mile after a strong second in the Hollywood Derby (G1) to Domestic Spending. He lost by a head.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Smooth Like Strait projects to secure the lead on the cutback through a slow pace. Storm the Court is not far behind on the pace graphic, but his running lines on turf indicate he either wants to stalk or close.

In any case, Smooth Like Strait is not a “need-the-lead” kind of speed horse. If the situation calls for him to sit off another horse, he is capable.

As the winner of the War Chant Stakes at Churchill Downs and runner-up in the local Pasadena Stakes, Smooth Like Straight also is familiar with the distance. Last December, he won the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3).

Smooth Like Straight is the choice. If his odds fall to even money, those are still fair odds on a quality speed horse entering a race with no pace.

Santa Anita Race 7: San Antonio Stakes (G2)

As written in an earlier post, Sharp Samurai ran well in both of his dirt tries this year.

Three starts ago, he was a solid second to Maximum Security in the Pacific Classic (G1). Then in his most recent effort, Sharp Samurai made a mild bid on the far turn to eventually finish third to the invincible Knicks Go in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

In both starts, Sharp Samurai earned a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

The 123 figure is good enough to win — if Mucho Gusto does not show up with his best race. Considering Mucho Gusto enters off a 301-day layoff and might defend his title in the Pegasus World Cup next month, he is not likely to peak here.

Wait and see if Sharp Samurai's odds slip up to 3-1. At that point, he is a value bet. The same note goes for Mucho Gusto, although the public is not likely to ignore him.

Santa Anita Race 8: La Brea Stakes (G1)

Mild 7-2 favorite Finite does not stand out overwhelmingly in terms of speed figures, but she receives the nod because of the expected pace setup. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, a hot pace is brewing. Cutting back to seven furlongs, Finite is expected to run as a closer in this race, probably from mid-pack behind the cavalry charge up front. 

Finite shows a 109 Late Pace Rating on TimeformUS, which is the highest in the field by a notable 23 points.

As long as Finite’s odds do not drop below 5-2, she is playable as a win wager or on top of other fillies in an exacta key. Consider Himiko and Provocation underneath. If there is money for extra fillies in multi-race tickets, also consider throwing Himiko and Provocation in there too. 

Santa Anita Race 9: American Oaks (G1)

Red Lark was fourth in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G1). And she turned in a good effort, considering the competition.

After moving from last on the turn and looming in the stretch run, Red Lark lost to Harvey’s Lil Goil by only 1 3/4 lengths, with high-quality fillies Micheline and Magic Attitude completing the trifecta in second and third. One start later, Harvey’s Lil Goil went on to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf in a great effort for a developing 3-year-old filly.

In this race, arguably none of the fillies are as good as Harvey’s Lil Goil, Micheline or Magic Attitude. If viewing the race from that perspective, Red Lark is "dropping down" in class.

Also note that Red Lark has run her best races at nine furlongs, which is a good sign that she will handle the 10-furlong American Oaks distance. Only two starts ago, she won the Del Mar Oaks (G1) by a length over California Kook, who is entered here. Earlier in the year, Red Lark also broke her maiden at nine furlongs. Those two races mark her lone wins.

Although Red Lark is double digits, the oddsmaker possibly underestimated the public’s interest. She is playable at 5-1 or higher.

Santa Anita Race 10: Malibu Stakes (G1)

Nashville and Charlatan are two monsters on paper.

But Nashville is the more natural sprinter who figures to secure the lead through his speed and open up on the turn, while the less speedy Charlatan might get caught off guard while cutting back from two routes.

Remember, not all horses who set the pace in routes are capable of setting or contesting the pace when cutting back to a sprint, even at seven furlongs.

Nashville is inexperienced lasting seven furlongs, but he did break his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga by 11 1/2 lengths. Plus, his dam line traces back to the familiar Set Them Free, producer of 2005 Kentucky Derby champion Giacomo and multiple stakes-winning router Tiago.

Single Nashville or single Charlatan. Nashville is the more reliable choice because of the sprint distance and the fact that he owns more recent races.