Saturday Plays: Rebel undercard offers vulnerable favorites

Even though the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn appears chalky, the Rebel undercard does present opportunities to play against vulnerable favorites. There are three specific stakes races that look good.

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Here are the three picks for those undercard races, plus a recap of the Rebel analysis and thoughts on the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita.

Oaklawn Race 5: $350,000 Azeri Stakes (G2)

Letruska enters the Azeri with good form and no questions about fitness.

In December, Letruska won the Rampart Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream by 6¾ lengths with a 113 on TimeformUS. Then in January, she took the Houston Ladies Classic Stakes (G3) at Sam Houston by 3½ lengths with a 119.

Letruska set the pace in both cases, but she does not necessarily fold easily either unless the pace scenario becomes too extreme. On the turn of the Houston Ladies Classic, Motion Emotion gave Letruska a direct challenge. But she was repelled and faded to fifth, 10¼ lengths behind Letruska.

Who is fit enough to challenge Letruska? Shedaresthedevil brings class as the Kentucky Oaks champion, but she makes her first start off a 160-day layoff with only four works and might need one race to get back into the flow. Envoutante brings good form, but she enters off a 107-day layoff.

Motion Emotion is present again, but why would she turn the tables?

Letruska is the top choice. Expect Joel Rosario to let this mare roll and attempt to bottom out the field.

Oaklawn Race 7: $500,000 Essex Handicap

Tax quit in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) after stalking the pace and briefly putting himself into contention on the far turn. He was a dismal 10th.

With that said, this gelding possibly needs Lasix for his best shot. Tax might fit more as a Grade 2 or 3 runner, but it is puzzling that he did not come within single-digit lengths in either Pegasus World Cup attempt.

Before his latest Pegasus flop, Tax won the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream by 4½ lengths, although a speed bias did help him. He shows a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the win, which he only needs to repeat.

Tax shows back class as the 2019 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) winner over Tacitus and Global Campaign. Also, he ran fourth in the Belmont Stakes.

The 2-1 morning line favorite Silver State won the local Fifth Season Stakes by a nose over Hunka Burning Love. But Silver State’s three TimeformUS figures since October are low-ish at 117 in the Fifth Season, 113 and 115.

Even with the fade in the Pegasus, Tax still ran a 119 on TimeformUS. His 10th-place finish is faster than all three of Silver State’s most recent races.

Tax gets one more chance to prove himself. 

Oaklawn Race 10: $200,000 Hot Springs Stakes

In two starts this year, Boldor took the Sam’s Town Stakes at Delta Downs by ¾ of a length and the local King Cotton Stakes by one length.

Besides his newfound consistency, the TimeformUS Speed Figures for both of those races are notably improved. Boldor ran a 114 in the Sam’s Town and 115 in the King Cotton. In 12 previous starts, Boldor never broke 110.

The morning line favorite Whitmore is the Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion, but he might need one start to get back into the flow. Remember, Whitmore lost his season debut last year in the previous King Cotton Stakes.

Sprint runner-up C Z Rocket may need a warm-up race as well if his goal is the Breeders’ Cup again. He shows irregular spacing in his worktab.

Boldor is proven over this course as the third-place finisher in the 2019 Smarty Jones Stakes. He also won an optional claiming race last year.

Assuming Boldor stays around 5-1, he is a good choice. 

Oaklawn Race 11: $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2)

As stated earlier, Caddo River and Concert Tour dominate the field on paper. Cashing on this race is difficult, unless the bettor believes in an upset.

Caddo River does hold a slightly better argument as the talented horse with local route experience. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes by over 10 lengths and still might go off at higher odds than Concert Tour.

After winning the San Vicente Stakes (G2), Concert Tour is on the same path for trainer Bob Baffert as Nadal last year. While he lacks route experience and only won the San Vicente by a narrow margin, Baffert knows how to peak his Derby trail horses in big races such as this one. 

Just use Caddo River and Concert Tour in multi-race wagers and move on.

Santa Anita Race 8: $300,000 Beholder Mile (G1)

As Time Goes By is an exciting 4-year-old filly trained by Baffert. She sports an incredible pedigree as an American Pharoah half sister to Will Take Charge and Take Charge Indy, two seven-figure earning routers. 

In terms of recent form, As Time Goes By took a significant step forward in her route debut Jan. 17. She won by nine lengths in a local one-mile allowance in an easy manner, with jockey Joel Rosario not moving on his mount as she coasted towards the wire. Rosario is gone this time, but Mike Smith abandons Golden Principal to hop aboard As Time Goes By.  

Although As Time Goes By only earned a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, she also earned a 102 BRIS Speed Rating. The 102 on BRIS is the second highest last-out figure on that scale, only behind Harvest Moon’s 105. 

Swiss Skydiver is also present, but she might need one race off the layoff. She only shows five workouts, which is a bit light after four months.

If her odds stay reasonable (around 5-1), As Time Goes By is the choice. Otherwise, also think about Harvest Moon, or use them together.