Saturday plays: Petruchio the pedigree choice in Los Al Futurity

Typically, the Grade 2, $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity offers a small field with at least some exciting talent lined up. Despite only six 2-year-olds ready to compete for Kentucky Derby points at 1 1/16 miles Saturday, this edition is no different with the top contenders showing potential signs of becoming major players soon.

Petruchio won over grass to break his maiden Oct. 31 at Del Mar. He now enters the Futurity as the 4-1 third choice in the small field.    

Despite the surface switch back to dirt, Petruchio leads the four selections across Los Alamitos, Gulfstream, Aqueduct and Fair Grounds.

Los Alamitos Race 4: $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

Even money favorite is Red Flag enters this race off a rousing 7 ¼-length victory in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. His improved tactical speed was notable and he gave the impression of a future star in the stretch run, even with no proper lead switch.

Yet, there are two problems other than the lack of a lead switch.

First of all, Red Flag lacks route experience. His maiden win came in a 5½-furlong turf sprint, while the Bob Hope was seven furlongs. No matter how well he ran in the latter race, it does not prove himself a router.

Also, he does not show the right route pedigree as a son of Tamarkuz over the dam Surrender, who has also produced the successful turf sprinter Surrender Now.

In contrast, Petruchio broke his maiden in a one-mile Del Mar turf route. Two starts ago, he was a good second in another one-mile turf route at Santa Anita.

Petruchio’s two dirt attempts at Del Mar in August look disappointing at first glance, even though he ran third each time. But those two races were sprint races, for which he is possibly not suited pedigree-wise. Petruchio’s sire is Into Mischief, who is labeled as a sprint influence, but his bottom side is filled with route influences.

Go back three generations in Petruchio’s dam line, and the name Belle’s Good Cide sticks out like a sore thumb. Of course, Belle’s Good Cide was the dam of 2003 Kentucky Derby champion Funny Cide and second dam of Rule, the 2010 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) winner and third-place finisher in the Florida Derby (G1). This is a dirt route family. 

Because of the pedigree, give Petruchio another chance on dirt. In all likelihood, he will transfer his sharp turf form to the main track under jockey Mike Smith, as long as he runs at a route distance.

Gulfstream Park Race 10: $100,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3)

Time to go to the well one more time?

Former blog pick Sleepy Eyes Todd performed great on the cutback to seven furlongs in the Lafayette Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, at least in the stretch run. After lagging in last through the first half-mile, Sleepy Eyes Todd cut through the field like butter to score by 1½ lengths and post a win at 4-1.

On TimeformUS, Sleepy Eyes Todd only shows a 112 figure for the sprint win, which is disappointing at first glance. However, the 112 is a competitive number in this race. Consider that the highest last-race TimeformUS figure is by Cool Arrow, who had a 116 recently.

Also, Sleepy Eyes Todd ran three straight 120+ figures before the Lafayette. Yet, he regresses to 112 in a sharp-looking victory on the cutback? It makes more sense that he cycles back to a 120+ figure, rather than post another 112-ish number. 

For non-speed figure evidence of the Lafayette field strength, runner-up True Timber went on to post a mild upset in the Cigar Mile (G1) over the slop.

Sleepy Eyes Todd gets the recommendation one more time.

Aqueduct Race 9: $100,000 Queens County Stakes

Backsideofthemoon earns the top slot for two important reasons.

For one, Backsideofthemoon handles a fast track. For example, on Sept. 24, he ran a good second to Empty Tomb after some traffic problems in a Belmont optional claiming race, earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Earlier in the year, Backsideofthemoon also was third in the Stymie Stakes with a 119 on TimeformUS.

In contrast, the morning line second choice Musical Heart is more questionable on it, even if he still wins races on fast dirt. His last two races on fast dirt resulted in TimeformUS figures of 107 and 104, even if he ran first and second in those two races. His last two wet dirt races gave him remarkably higher TimeformUS figures of 117 and 121.

Backsideofthemoon also does not show any issues handling nine furlongs. He won his Nov. 13 off-the-turf optional claiming race against Musical Heart at nine furlongs and also took the 2018 Jazil Stakes at the same distance.

In contrast, Empty Tomb displays some stamina issues at nine furlongs, while Mirinaque might need more ground as a marathoner.

Even if he is 8-5, Backsideofthemoon is the choice.

Fair Grounds Race 13: $75,000 Tenacious Stakes

As stated in an earlier post, Locally Owned won his optional claiming race Nov. 13 in a more impressive manner than the ¾-of-a-length margin makes it seem.  

After waiting behind traffic on the turn, he made his move on the inside and gradually fought off Chess Chief, who had a clear outside route.

For the effort, Locally Owned earned a career-high 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is only one point off Maxfield’s 115 for winning the Matt Winn Stakes (G3). That is possibly not a fair comparison as Maxfield picked up that figure in May in only his third career start, but perhaps Locally Owned is stepping onto another level as a horse too.

Locally Owned also owns the fitness edge over Maxfield, as does Nov. 4 optional claiming winner Sonneman, who owns an impressive career-high 119 on TimeformUS in that win.  

To make this clear, all three horses are usable in multi-race wagers. But if someone wants to make a Win or Place bet, Locally Owned is the most logical choice in terms of value.

Also, if the public puts six figures on Maxfield to show, then think about a show bet on either Locally Owned or Sonneman.