Saturday Plays: Pace can help Hit Show in Kentucky Derby prep

Whether Hit Show can capture the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers in his graded-stakes debut Saturday at Aqueduct hinges on the pace. On paper it looks like the favorite Arctic Arrogance will face pressure. But is that the case, or will the other speed horses rate early on?

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The possible answer and final exacta is below, plus short analysis for the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay and El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. 

Withers Stakes (G3), Aqueduct race 9

From the rail Arctic Arrogance is supposed to lead as the inside speed. He faces possible speed threats from Ninetyprcentmaddie and Andiamo a Firenze. The former stretches out to a route distance for the first time, and the latter folded after using forced rating tactics in the Jerome (G3) in his initial attempt to go longer than seven furlongs.

Given Andiamo a Firenze’s failure when rating, it feels more likely the connections will want him to flash his speed this time. As for Ninetyprcentmaddie, he debuts in a nine-furlong race after starting his career in five sprint races and flashing tactical speed in each. On paper Ninetyprcentmaddie is likely to contest the lead. 

In addition Prove Right might push them along with his tactical speed after starting in sprints in his last two starts. In November he set the pace in the one-mile Nashua (G3) before fading to third late.

Perhaps Arctic Arrogance succumbs to the pressure and fades. An interesting closer to choose instead is Hit Show, who makes his nine-furlong debut in this spot after taking a one-mile optional claimer by 3 1/2 lengths at Oaklawn on Dec. 17.

Two starts ago on the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) undercard at Churchill Downs, Hit Show also closed for fourth in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer won by Confidence Game, who went on to finish third in the Lecomte (G3).  

From a pedigree standpoint, Hit Show was bred to go long. His first dam Actress only won twice in her career, and each win came at nine furlongs.

Maybe using longer shots underneath Hit Show rather than Arctic Arrogance is the right play along with a win bet on Hit Show to cover the exacta wheel.

On that note, Jungfrau and General Banker are the expected mid-pack runners and might find themselves in the mix if the pace heats up.

Win: 4 at 8-5 or longer

Exacta: 4/3,5

Sam F. Davis (G3), Tampa Bay Downs race 10

Dubyuhnell holds the class advantage in this field as the Remsen (G2) winner. Over the slop Dubyuhnell won a fierce stretch battle over Arctic Arrogance to prevail by a half-length at the end.

One concern is Dubyuhnell won his last two races over the slop. But Dubyuhnell also ran fourth in his career debut at Saratoga on fast dirt against a tough field, which included the winner Instant Coffee, the future winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club and Lecomte.

Plus there is some rain in the forecast for Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, so Dubyuhnell might get a wet surface by post time.

Two good options for second are Classic Legacy and Classic Car Wash.

Classic Legacy won a seven-furlong, maiden race over the slop by 3 1/2 lengths Dec. 3 at Aqueduct. In that race he sat near the leader before taking over on the turn, but that is not his typical racing style. On Oct. 22 in a seven-furlong, maiden race over fast dirt, Classic Legacy came from 11 lengths back to finish second by 4 1/4 lengths.

Classic Car Wash won his last two starts at Gulfstream, including a recent 2 1/2-length win in a one-mile-and-70-yard, Florida-bred, allowance race on synthetic and a maiden win on dirt by 8 1/2 lengths at the seven-furlong distance Dec. 2. This Mark Casse-trained gelding has been a sharp horse since the ultimate equipment change.

Win: 7 at 6-5 or longer

Exacta: 7/3,6

El Camino Real Derby, Golden Gate Fields race 8

Gilmore has shown talent in two starts for trainer Bob Baffert.

In his career debut at Del Mar in November, Gilmore closed strongly to cut into a four-length deficit and finish third by only three-quarters of a length. Given the race was only six furlongs, maybe he only needed more distance.

When Gilmore stretched out to one mile in a Dec. 10 maiden race at Los Alamitos, he challenged the leader Roll On Big Joe on the far turn and outbattled him in the stretch. Gilmore pulled clear to win by four lengths.

Now Gilmore stretches out to nine furlongs on synthetic. Visually he looks like a colt who wants this distance and surface, because he strongly closed each time, and most synthetic races favor horses who can finish well at the wire.

Gilmore also gets his own personal rabbit in Nullarbor, who shares the exact same owners and figures to get sent hard from the outside post position in order to weaken the expected pacesetter Harcyn. 

Maybe the morning-line favorite Passarando can be beaten for second by Chase the Chaos, who won a local, one-mile, optional-claiming race by an explosive 7 1/2 lengths Dec. 30. Granted, he did receive a pace setup. But Chase the Chaos could get another setup here with the rabbit Nullarbor.

If the pace is softer than expected, Harcyn might hold on for second. In October, Harcyn won his career debut locally in a six-furlong, maiden race by 3 3/4 lengths. He also won his second start by the same margin at the same distance last month in an optional claimer. In both races Harcyn set the pace and appears likely to do the same here.

Gilmore is 4-1 on the morning line, but expect lower odds.

Win: 1 at 2-1 or longer

Exacta: 1/2,5