Saturday plays: Single this Kentucky Derby prospect

For bettors who think the expected favorite Arctic Arrogance can lose the $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday, there are other viable options in this Kentucky Derby trail points race. Eight 3-year-olds are entered and set to travel the one-turn mile. 

Here is a Daily Double linking an alternative choice in the Jerome to two deep closers in the $150,000 Queens County Stakes one race later.

Aqueduct Race 8: Jerome Stakes

Arctic Arrogance wants to set the pace, and securing that role might not come easy for him with the sprinter Andiamo de Firenze present and likely to outfoot him to the lead on the stretchout from six furlongs. 

Assuming Arctic Arrogance does not challenge Andiamo de Firenze head to head, can he sit about a length off him, or give two or three lengths early on and wait for Andiamo de Firenze to get tired on the lead?

Back on Oct. 30 in the local Sleepy Hollow Stakes, Arctic Arrogance did briefly lose the lead on the inside before fighting back in the stretch to win.

In the Remsen Stakes (G2) on Dec. 3, Arctic Arrogance set the pace with Dubyuhnell only a half-length behind through the initial fractions. The two of them continued to battle each other on the turn and into the stretch, with Dubyuhnell eventually winning the battle by half a length.

Regardless of the loss, Arctic Arrogance finished 11 1/4 lengths ahead of Tuskegee Airmen, who started the Remsen as the 6/5 favorite.

Maybe Arctic Arrogance will just inherit the lead with no problem.

Then again, most need-the-lead horses cannot adapt to different situations, or they do not kick in the same way even if they gain the lead at a later stage in the race. At this point in Arctic Arrogance’s career, it is too early to say he must set the pace, but he might need to.

In addition, notice Arctic Arrogance’s missing work between Dec. 15 and Dec. 31. Leading up to the Remsen, he worked in seven-day intervals between Nov. 11 and 26. Every small detail matters when analyzing the expected favorite.  

An interesting alternative choice to Arctic Arrogance is Neural Network, who makes the second start of his career after winning a local six-furlong maiden sprint on Nov. 13 by five lengths with stalking tactics. Off the bat, Neural Network's kind of early speed seems more tactical than the pacesetting Arctic Arrogance.

From a pedigree standpoint, Neural Network is supposed to handle the extra furlong as a son of Cloud Computing out of a Street Cry mare named Lapinski. The dam line traces back to Cara Rafaela, who produced the 2006 Preakness, Travers Stakes (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Bernardini.

The jump from winning a maiden special weight to competing in a Derby prep race never comes easy, not even on the Aqueduct part of the trail.

However, trainer Chad Brown has been successful with this angle. For example, Early Voting won a maiden special weight to start off his career in December 2021 and then took the Withers Stakes (G3) in early February.

Early Voting’s example is possibly unfair since the Withers date gave him time to develop. To give another example, Mask broke his maiden in October 2017 and then won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream in January.

Neural Network has had almost two months to prepare for the Jerome and shows a mostly consistent worktab from Nov. 27 through Dec. 30. If Andiamo a Firenze and Arctic Arrogance go too fast, he can take over.  

To briefly discuss Lugan Knight, he also holds a small chance after finishing third against Victory Formation in a Churchill Downs optional claiming race. Victory Formation went on to capture the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn.

Lugan Knight shows a sprint pedigree though with Goldencents on top and a Speightstown mare named Sly Roxy on the bottom. Sly Roxy is the daughter of Roxy Gap, who won $950k competing in mostly sprints.

At 3-1 or higher, Neural Network is the selection.  

Win: 1 (at 3-1 or higher)

Double: 1 / 2,9

Aqueduct Race 9: Queens County Stakes

Assuming all the main speed players remain in the race, it might pay to give deep closers a chance to beat Law Professor.

To give credit to Law Professor, he will not lose easily if he repeats his runner-up finish to Life Is Good in the Woodward Stakes (G1) on Oct. 1. After stalking the pace, Law Professor gave Life Is Good a huge scare around the turn, before the favorite reestablished control of the lead.

In this pace scenario, Sea Foam, Eloquist and Thomas Shelby seem probable to flash their speed in the early stages of the race, which means the front half of the field along with Law Professor could collapse on the far turn.  

The best closer looks like the rejuvenated Unbridled Bomber, who has dominated his last two starts in a local Sept. 29 allowance race and Nov. 12 optional claimer by the same margin of 4 3/4 lengths. In the latter race, every horse who ran had a tag except for Unbridled Bomber.

Before those two wins, Unbridled Bomber went 11 races with only one win. What caused the change? Some handicappers might credit Lasix, but Unbridled Bomber also had Lasix on Aug. 18 when he lost by 14 lengths.

The other closer to consider is Bourbonic, who won the 2021 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) on this course before finishing 13th in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Belmont Stakes. Bourbonic ended his 2021 season in the most recent edition of the Queens County, where he threw a clunker in seventh.  

Bourbonic went on the shelf for a year and made his return in a local seven-furlong allowance race on Dec. 3. After lagging 15 lengths behind at one point, Bourbonic put in a strong rally in the stretch to finish a good fourth by only four lengths. Keep in mind that Bourbonic works best in longer routes. He will appreciate the stretchout back to nine furlongs.

With the strong comeback in tow, Bourbonic looks set to move forward in his first start as a 5-year-old horse and give a peak performance in this spot.