Saturday Plays: Jackie's Warrior makes Count Fleet hard to bet

Jackie’s Warrior makes his season debut in the Grade 3, $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap on Saturday at Oaklawn. He takes on five other sprinters at six furlongs over a probable wet track according to the weather forecast.

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For most of last year, Jackie’s Warrior turned in brilliant efforts.

In the middle part of his campaign, Jackie’s Warrior put together a three-race win streak by winning the Amsterdam Stakes (G3) at Saratoga by 7 1/4 lengths with a 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) at Saratoga by a neck over Life Is Good with a career-high 132 and the Gallant Bob Stakes (G2) by 6 3/4 lengths with a 128.

But in his last 2021 start, Jackie’s Warrior faded to sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar at 2-5 odds and disappointed many bettors.

What happened? Even if Jackie's Warrior contested a fast pace, a top sprinter is supposed to handle the pressure and fight in the stretch. 

Does Jackie’s Warrior return to his earlier brilliance in the Count Fleet?

Yes. Jackie’s Warrior deserves the benefit of the doubt for his subpar Breeders’ Cup Sprint fade and should recapture his form in this Grade 3.

With that said, the race is unappealing for handicappers who do not wish to go against Jackie’s Warrior. He is 6-5 on the morning line, and his odds might drop as low as 1-9 in actual betting. Relying on Jackie's Warrior as a cold single will pay next to nothing in most wagers. 

Doubters might want to take a look at Bob’s Edge, who enters the Count Fleet in sharp form after wins in the King Cotton Stakes and Whitmore Stakes (G3). His 2-1 morning line odds are no bargain either though.

If the bridgejumping crowd goes insane and puts over $500,000 on Jackie’s Warrior to show, maybe Bob’s Edge is worth a show bet, just in case Jackie’s Warrior finishes off the board. Other races on the card appeal more for betting purposes, as does the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

Below is a suggested double for Oaklawn Race 9 and 10, as well as a recap of the earlier Lexington Stakes selections at Keeneland.

Oaklawn Race 9: Allowance optional claiming

Super Constitution enters this optional claimer with dirtied form after losing by 26 lengths in a local March 17 allowance race. However, Super Constitution tried to run 1 1/2 miles in that double-digit loss, and horses who cannot handle a marathon distance tend to lose ground quickly.

Two starts ago, Super Constitution ran second by 1/2 length to Twilight Blue over the mud in a local one-mile allowance race. Twilight Blue went on to finish second in a high-priced optional claimer on April 2, while beating familiar names such as Wells Bayou, Title Ready, Gun It and Fact Finding.

With rain in the forecast and a cutback to one mile in this spot, Super Constitution could rebound off the poor marathon effort. He is the choice.

Win: 5

Double: 5 / 2,3,6

Oaklawn Race 10: 3-year-old maiden special weight

Battle Call is the first preference after running fifth in a local one-mile maiden race on March 19. He went wide on both turns and might improve from Post No. 3 in this spot. Also note the added blinkers and switch to jockey Matt Garcia.

El Gemar flattened out to third after making a strong move on the far turn in another one-mile maiden race on the same card. As a son of Malibu Moon, he might step forward on mud or slop if it rains heavily.

Kunshan Bridge finished seventh in his local career debut on April 2 in a six-furlong maiden race. Given Kunshan Bridge traveled evenly for the entire race though, the stretch out to one mile in this spot might help.

Keeneland Race 9: Lexington Stakes (G3)

In his lone dirt attempt, Tawny Port closed for fifth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds.

The Risen Star ended up as a strong race, with Epicenter capturing the Louisiana Derby (G2), Zandon winning the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) over Smile Happy and Slow Down Andy taking the Sunland Derby (G3).

We All See It has a chance to upset this field after a strong optional claiming win at Fair Grounds on March 19. He won by a head over Strong Quality with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure and only needs a small step forward to compete for the top spot here.

Strava flattened out to third by six lengths in an optional claiming race at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19. Given the winner Cyberknife went on to capture the Arkansas Derby (G1), the race quality was arguably strong.

Call Me Midnight beat Epicenter to win the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds. He could only finish sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) though and drew the widest post in this race. Limit him to underneath spots.

Exacta: 3,8,9 / 3,8,9,11