Saturday Plays: Frostmourne the value in Tropical Turf

Today’s angle involves the use of turf speed figures. Although the value of those numbers is not as great on surfaces other than dirt, they are still useful.

In the one-mile Grade 3, $100,000 Tropical Turf Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday, the 7-year-old gelding Frostmourne makes his second start off the bench after recording the highest last-out figure on TimeformUS in an optional claiming race at Churchill Downs.

For that and other reasons, Frostmourne highlights the four selections across Gulfstream and Santa Anita below.  

Gulfstream Race 7: Maiden

At double-digit odds, Manitowish deserves a closer look.

In his Nov. 27 career debut at Churchill Downs, Manitowish lost ground approaching the far turn and fell as far as 9 ½ lengths behind the leader, before churning on and making up some of the loss in the stretch run to finish fifth by 4 ¾ lengths.

Considering the 5 ½-furlong distance of the race, Manitowish likely fell behind because of the sprint pace and needed the slower fractions of a route tempo.

The pedigree points towards routes, as his second dam Urbane took the 1995 Ashland Stakes (G1) and ran a troubled second in the Kentucky Oaks only a few weeks later.

Manitowish gets to compete in a one-turn mile in this spot. This is not the strongest maiden field either.

If his odds stay high, give Manitowish a chance.

Gulfstream Race 10: Tropical Turf Stakes (G3)

Off a 330-day layoff on Nov. 5, Frostmourne took an optional claimer at Churchill Downs in gate-to-wire fashion by three lengths, which is a dominant margin on turf.

Frostmourne earned a lofty 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the return effort, and most horses move forward in their second and third starts off the bench. In his case, he is even more likely to improve because of the extreme length of his layoff.

What if Frostmourne just repeats the 125? That number is still the highest last-out TimeformUS figure in the field. The next highest last-out figure is Admission Office's 121 for winning the Louisville Stakes (G3).

Clearly, there are physical problems to Frostmourne. This is a 7-year-old gelding with only 13 career starts, and not all of his races are great.

On the positive side, there is proven backclass to him. In 2018, he ran fifth by only 2 ¼ lengths in the Makers 46 Mile Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. One start later, he was a close fourth in the Monmouth Stakes (G2), only losing by 1 ¾ lengths to Money Multiplier.

Frostmourne was also set to meet a weak favorite here in Analyze It, who unfortunately has been scratched. The rest of the field does not offer any monsters either. Frostmourne should be able to use his tactical speed and adapt to the situation. 

This is a good spot for Frostmourne to string two wins in a row. 

Santa Anita Race 8: La Canada Stakes (G3)

As stated in an earlier post, Miss Stormy D makes her second start off the bench and pops a decent number on TimeformUS once in a while.

On Feb. 29 before the 281-day layoff, she led from gate to wire in a local one-mile optional claimer, drawing clear for an impressive 6 ¼-length win. For the easy victory, she earned a 117 on TimeformUS.   

About three months before that effort, Miss Stormy D won for the first time in a six-furlong maiden sprint at Del Mar after pressing the pace. She drew away by 3 ¾ lengths while earning a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

For comparison, Fighting Mad earned a 120 in her third-place Zenyatta Stakes (G1) finish, while Hard Not To Love picked up a 117 for second.

Plus, Mike Smith takes the call, even though he has ridden Hard Not To Love regularly in the past. Why is Smith now on Miss Stormy D?

If her odds stay at 5-1 or higher, Miss Stormy D is worth a shot.

Santa Anita Race 9: Las Cienegas Stakes (G3)

Jolie Olimpica is drawn perfectly on the outside in post No. 7.

If Superstition or Lighthouse decide to get aggressive, Jolie Olimpica can lay right off them about one or two lengths behind. She can also press one of those two pace horses, depending on which one is brave enough to lead.

If the pace is slower than expected, then Jolie Olimpica is capable of taking control. In a turf sprint, she leans more towards a natural stalker though.

Jolie Olimpica won this race last year by 1 ¼ lengths after tracking the leader in second. After finishing second in the Buena Vista Stakes (G2) on race afterwards, she then took the local 5 ½-furlong Monrovia Stakes by a half-length over Oleksandra.

To end the campaign, Jolie Olimpica ran second in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) to Rushing Fall, which most handicappers can forgive.

Even at 8/5, Jolie Olimpica is the choice. She is also worth considering for a single on cheaper tickets, given her tactical speed and class.