Saturday Plays: Finding slop runners on Risen Star card

With rain possible on the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes card, the three Fair Grounds selections below will focus on horses likely to handle slop and score at a decent price. Past experience on mud or slop is always the best evidence, but pedigree analysis sometimes also works for horses with no previous wet dirt attempts.

First, here are some thoughts on the two Gulfstream stakes races.

Gulfstream Race 6: Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes (G3)

High Crime enters this stakes race off a poor dirt effort at Churchill Downs in November. Forget about that and focus on his 5 ½-furlong turf races.

The 5-year-old son of Violence took a 5 ½-furlong turf allowance at Keeneland last October and another 5 ½-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs back in June. In this spot, High Crime also cuts back slightly to five furlongs, which likely works in the favor of this front-runner who almost got caught in that narrow Keeneland win.

Considering the favorite Leinster competes off a three-month layoff and does not get Lasix, High Crime is worth taking a shot on.  

Gulfstream Race 11: Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes (G3)

Wind of Change set a fast pace in the local Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) before fading to fourth, only 3 ½ lengths behind the sharp winner Sleepy Eyes Todd.

Sleepy Eyes Todd went on to run a respectable fourth in the Pegasus World Cup.

Now, Wind of Change cuts back to six furlongs while projecting to lead again. Sleepy Eyes Todd, Firenze Fire and Mind Control are not present either. Plus, Wind of Change only gets a mild pace opponent in Edgemont Road. 

Wind of Change is the choice to lead gate to wire.

Fair Grounds Race 10: Mineshaft Stakes (G3)

Blackberry Wine’s best performance came on slop, when he broke his maiden for the second time by 13 lengths at Oaklawn last March with a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In four starts afterwards, he could not match the figure.

Also notice that Blackberry Wine broke his maiden “the first time” on slop as well, crossing the wire in front by 5 ¾ lengths in a maiden sprint at Churchill Downs.

This horse loves wet dirt. While the pace presence of Wells Bayou is unfortunate, Blackberry Wine can possibly sit off his flank and give him a good challenge in the lane, and even win the race assuming wet dirt moves him up. On slop, strange results happen more often than not.

As for the favorite Maxfield, he is an unknown on wet dirt.

If the rain does not materialize, then think twice about using Blackberry Wine on top. He is not the same on fast dirt. On mud or slop though, this horse is playable.

Fair Grounds Race 12: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

Watch Moon Swag’s race in the Silverbulletday Stakes again.

First of all, Moon Swag broke out slightly and bumped with Charlie’s Penny. According to the notes, she also hit the gate at the start.

Then, Moon Swag was caught in traffic on the first turn, forcing her to take up behind Littlestitious and Sun Path.

Moon Swag finally gets into a good rhythm, but fails to accelerate in a timely manner at the top of the stretch when more room opens up. However, Moon Swag does find her best stride towards the wire and passes Sun Path on the rail for third, and she also closes the gap on Souper Sensational to miss second by ¾ of a length.

In terms of pedigree for slop, Moon Swag’s full sibling Heavy Roller is interesting. The active 7-year-old gelding shows four wet dirt wins out of nine career wins.

On paper, Moon Swag is not the best filly. If she receives a cleaner trip and slop though, those two factors could propel this filly to the top at double-digit odds.

Fair Grounds Race 13: Risen Star Stakes (G2)

As stated in a previous post, Proxy ran a great race in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) considering Midnight Bourbon led with a slight cushion through a slow pace.

Now Proxy gets to stretch out. As a son of Tapit and Panty Raid, the extra distance is supposed to favor him. Panty Raid won the 1 ¼-mile American Oaks (G1) in 2007, as well as the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and Spinster Stakes (G1).

For the most part, horses with sire lines that trace back to the great A.P. Indy fare well on wet dirt. That is not a hard rule to follow, but it ends up true more often than not. Proxy’s sire Tapit is a son of Pulpit, making Proxy a great grandson of A.P. Indy.

Proxy is the choice to turn the tables on Midnight Bourbon.