Saturday plays: Can Forte catch Mage in Fountain of Youth?

Time to wrap up the selections for the Derby points races on Saturday. Forte makes his return in the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and most eyes will focus on him, as well as Mage, an impressive maiden winner who will attempt to steal the race in his second career start. The analysis below will focus on these two colts. 

Also included below are short recaps of the analysis for the Gotham Stakes (G2) and San Felipe Stakes (G2), as well as final bets for all three races.

Can the 2-year-old champion Forte catch Mage?

Gulfstream Race 14: Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)

Mage brings plenty of hype to the Fountain of Youth. But he also brings raw talent, as shown by his local seven-furlong maiden win on Jan. 28.

In that Jan. 28 race, Mage came out with his jockey Edgar Perez hustling him to go, and he responded well by taking a half-length lead by the end of the chute. From there, Mage set a steady tempo with a 22.78 opening quarter and 45.88 half, with the Shug McGaughey-trained Perform traveling right on his tail.

Mage easily put away Perform on the turn. From that point, he had no challenger as Bourbon Resolve and Summonyourcourage spun their wheels in second and third. Under mild urging at best, Mage won by 3 3/4 lengths.

With a final time of 1:22.54, Mage earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. To put the latter figure in perspective, Forte posted a 117 when he captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Mage only came up four points shy of that figure in his career debut. 

However, Mage faces a difficult task with no route experience and no graded stakes experience, and he meets the 2-year-old champion Forte.

Not only did Forte capture the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over a talented runner in the Bob Baffert-trained Cave Rock last November, but he also won a key Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Besides Forte, the Breeders' Futurity also produced Instant Coffee, who went on to capture both the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Lecomte Stakes (G3) in his next two starts.    

Even though Forte does not need any more Derby points, he looks sharp in the mornings beating up on his older 4-year-old stablemate Iron Works. Check out the Feb. 25 workout in particular, where Iron Works' rider urges him to keep up and Forte pulls clear under his own power.

On paper, Mage will lead this field comfortably, especially since the other main speed horse Legacy Isle gets his blinkers taken off. In all likelihood, Mage will lead the field into the far turn and possibly the stretch run. But once Mage feels a higher-class runner such as Forte giving him a stiff challenge, he will probably concede to Forte and hold on for second. 

The play is a straight exacta with Forte over Mage.

Win: 4 (at even or higher)

Exacta: 4 / 7

Aqueduct Race 9: Gotham Stakes (G3)

Raise Cain’s best dirt races make him competitive in this spot.

Last October, Raise Cain broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths at Keeneland in a seven-furlong sprint while earning a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Two races later in December, Raise Cain finished well enough to edge out Determinedly for second in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds.

For the runner-up effort at Fair Grounds, Raise Cain earned a 102 on TimeformUS. If those numbers feel low, keep in mind both of those races came last year, and Raise Cain has probably become stronger at this point.

In comparison, the 5-1 morning line second choice Slip Mahoney earned a 108 in a local one-mile maiden race on Jan. 21, which is tied for the highest, while the 6-1 Lugan Knight earned a 107 in his pacesetting Jerome Stakes win. Both of those runners deserve respect and a spot in multi-race wagers.

Even though Slip Mahoney and Lugan Knight own higher figures, Raise Cain does not feel too far off those two opponents in terms of ability, and the expected flow favors him as a closer in a speed-filled race.  

At 30-1 on the morning line, Raise Cain is intriguing as a win bet.   

Use in multi-race wagers: 10,11,12

Win/place: 12 (at 15-1 or higher)

Santa Anita Race 6: San Felipe Stakes (G2)

After Skinner lost twice as a maiden in Grade 1 company, trainer John Shirreffs took it slower with him and decided to let the colt mature.

Following his sixth in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) last October, Skinner went on a break and did not return until Feb. 12, when he finally broke his maiden in a local one-mile route by an easy 3 1/4 lengths. His winning move on the outside almost felt like watching Honor A. P. again.

Skinner earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure and 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the win, which puts him around the same level as National Treasure and Hejazi, two former Bob Baffert-trained colts who will run for Tim Yakteen.

Hejazi faces a difficult pace scenario with the speedy Geaux Rocket Ride present. Jockey Mike Smith does not typically rate good speed horses, which means Hejazi will either steal the lead or contest it with Geaux Rocket Ride.

National Treasure runs as a stalker, but he has burned significant win money. In his most recent start, he finished third with no excuse in the Sham Stakes (G3). Last fall, National Treasure also finished second in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Skinner now makes his second start off the bench and can move forward off his maiden win and improve on his solid return figure. Most horses hit their best stride in either the second or third start off the layoff.  

At 7/2 or higher, Skinner offers enough value for a win and place bet.

Win/place: 10 (at 7/2 or higher)