Saturday Plays: 4 races, 8 picks for Belmont, Delaware Park

Belmont Park hosts two major turf stakes races for 3-year-olds on Saturday afternoon, including the Grade 1, $700,000 Belmont Oaks for fillies and Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby. Both invitationals are run at the classic 1 1/4-mile distance.

This blog loves longer turf routes. However, there is also the 1 1/4-mile Delaware Handicap (G2) on dirt at Delaware Park to consider, and the Battery Park Stakes.

Here are July 10 selections for Belmont and Delaware.

Belmont Race 7: Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1)

As stated in an earlier post, the European invader Santa Barbara holds the class advantage after almost beating the older Thundering Nights in the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1) at the Curragh in Ireland. While Santa Barbara ultimately lost to Thundering Nights by a neck after an exciting stretch battle, she made the winner work.

Previously, Thundering Nights had flown to Belmont and lost the New York Stakes (G2) on June 4 by a nose to female American turf star Mean Mary. Last fall, Mean Mary rose to the top mix of turf runners by finishing second in the Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.  

Santa Barbara is the most likely winner, but also consider Cirona.

Two starts ago, Cirona led the field in the Prix Saint-Alary (G1) and only became a little tired towards the end. She lost by a neck to outside closer Incarville.

In Cirona’s most recent start, she finished 10th in the Prix de Diane Longines (G1). In that race she traveled in midpack, buried under traffic and never had a chance to stretch out her legs when the serious running began.

Use both Santa Barbara and Cirona in multi-race wagers.                

Belmont Race 9: Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

This is a difficult turf race to handicap.

The European invader Bolshoi Ballet won by an easy six lengths in the Derby Trial (G3) overseas on May 9. From a visual standpoint, he blew away the field in the stretch and came off as a future star. The fourth-place Mac Swiney took the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1) in his next start at the Curragh. Oddly enough, the runner-up, Lough Derg, did not hit the board in his next three starts. Perhaps Mac Swiney did not try his best in the Derby Trial won by Bolshoi Ballet.    

In Bolshoi Ballet’s next start, he contested a moderate to slow pace in the Cazoo Derby (G1), and showed nothing late for a disappointing seventh by 17 lengths.

While Bolshoi Ballet is usable defensively, there are other options.

Du Jour enters this race on a three-race winning streak, including the American Turf Stakes (G3) in his most recent start. He won those races under trainer Bob Baffert.

Baffert has lost many of his horses in recent weeks due to the controversies surrounding him. Now, Du Jour is under the care of trainer Bill Mott. Considering Baffert is not a trainer who starts his horses on turf often, it is impressive that Du Jour kept winning races for him anyway. Du Jour might move forward under a trainer who knows turf racing better.    

With most bettors focused on Bolshoi Ballet, Du Jour might hold at 9/2.

Also consider Hard Love, who brings good speed and a 4-3-1-0 record to the race. One of those wins came in the Woodhaven Stakes at Aqueduct in April. He also beat older horses in a nine-furlong local June 5 optional claiming race.

For a longshot, think about the 15-1 Palazzi. Palazzi lost to Cellist by three quarters of a length in the May 29 Audubon Stakes at Churchill Downs. However, Cellist set the pace with sluggish fractions of 25.54, 51.20 and 1:16.12. Given Palazzi had to close from midpack into that absurd pace and lost by less than a length, he ran a better race.

Here are the picks for the Belmont Derby in order of preference: Du Jour, Bolshoi Ballet, Hard Love, Palazzi.

Delaware Race 6: Battery Park Stakes

The favorite Phat Man does his best work from seven furlongs to one mile. Given this race is 1 1/16 miles, it makes sense to search elsewhere for the winner.

Galerio is the logical choice at 3-1. This gelding has blossomed under the care of Dale Bennett with three straight runner-up finishes in stakes races at Laurel Park, a seven-length optional claiming win at Pimlico on May 8 over slop and a third in the Salvatore Mile (G3) on June 12 at Monmouth. He lost by 2 1/2 lengths to the upset winner Informative.

At Monmouth, the jockeys are not allowed to use crops except under emergency situations. Now that Galerio is back on a track without a crop ban, he might move forward. As long as his odds remain higher than Phat Man, Galerio is a win bet candidate.

Delaware Race 9: Delaware Handicap (G2)

Although the 3/2 favorite Bonny South is a consistent older filly who usually packs some sort of punch, she has lost five times in six races since last July.

In fairness, Bonny South ran second to Letruska in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) last month. Letruska is the clear leader of the older filly and mare dirt division. Bonny South was also second to Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama Stakes (G1) last summer. Few handicappers will knock Bonny South for losing to those two major stars.

Bonny South also lost by a neck to Miss Marissa in the rescheduled Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) last October. Miss Marissa is entered in the Delaware Handicap too.

Miss Marissa recently came off a 143-day layoff to finish second in the local Obeah Stakes over slop. She held the lead for a bit before Dream Marie ran her down.

Coming off the layoff, Miss Marissa deserves a pass for the loss.

Miss Marissa is drawn perfectly in Post 6, outside of the other main speed, Gibberish, on the rail. While Miss Marissa prefers setting the pace, she can sit off her inside speed opponent and wait for the far turn to apply some real pressure.

The 1 1/4-mile distance is a question mark for Miss Marissa. But, it is a good sign Miss Marissa’s best efforts came at nine furlongs. She is supposed to handle the slightly longer distance.

At 6-1, Miss Marissa is a value play.