Saturday Plays: Time for Americanrevolution

Whenever a favorite or short-priced horse throws a disappointing effort, it becomes difficult to trust that same horse at a short price next time out. After all, favorites should hit all the handicapping checkmarks in order to justify the low odds.

In the Grade 1, $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga on Saturday, there is an expected favorite in Olympiad who was disappointing in the Whitney Stakes (G1) and may start lower than his 2-1 morning line odds.

Perhaps there is an alternative to Olympiad in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. In addition, this post also contains final picks and bets for the Grade 2, $300,000 Del Mar Derby and Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

Saratoga Race 9: Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)

Americanrevolution enters the Jockey Club Gold Cup with an undefeated record in New York. All five of his career wins came in this state, including the Cigar Mile (G1) last December at Aqueduct and the local Albany Stakes one year ago.

In the Albany, Americanrevolution won a nine-furlong race restricted to New York-bred horses by five lengths. Two starts later in the nine-furlong Empire Classic Handicap, Americanrevolution won by 11 3/4 lengths over slop over New York-breds again. Early on, this colt showed a preference for longer routes. Americanrevolution also ran third in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) in between those races, but he was only making his Grade 1 debut and did not own the right seasoning. 

In Americanrevolution’s most recent start, he ran a closing second to Olympiad in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) after stalking the early pace.

Neither Americanrevolution or Olympiad show any experience at 1 1/4 miles. From a visual standpoint though, it just looks like Americanrevolution might appreciate the longer distance better. If nothing else, Americanrevolution offers a better price.

Perhaps Americanrevolution’s stablemate Dynamic One can come rolling late for the runner-up position. Over the summer, Dynamic One won the Suburban Stakes (G2) at Belmont over the same 1 1/4-mile distance.  

Win: 5 (at 5/2 or higher)

Exacta: 5 / 8

Del Mar Race 9: Del Mar Derby (G2)

Value-wise, this is an interesting race because the popular Mackinnon and Slow Down Andy figure to attract money for the wrong reasons.

War At Sea took the nine-furlong Cinema Stakes at Santa Anita on June 4 after tracking a deceptively fast pace. The closing runner-up Cabo Spirit went on to capture the local La Jolla Handicap (G3) in his next start.

Notice that Balnikhov finished fourth in the Cinema and he starts as the morning line favorite at 5/2 in this race after winning the Oceanside Stakes.

Why not just take War At Sea again? He possesses good tactical speed and should offer value at his morning line odds of 6-1 or around there. If Cabo Spirit avoids traffic as a closer, maybe he can rally and make it close late.

Win: 3 (at 4-1 or higher)

Exacta box: 1,3

Del Mar Race 10: Pacific Classic (G1)

Flightline shows the kind of talent not seen often in horse racing these days.

In his only two starts since last December, Flightline won the Malibu Stakes (G1) 11 1/2 lengths with an incredible 141 TimeformUS Speed Figure and the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) in June by six lengths with a 137 off the layoff.

Only super horses earn those kinds of speed figures.

Flightline needs to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles in this race, but Tapit progeny typically enjoy longer route distances and his talent should carry him farther as well.

Country Grammer will also enjoy the 10 furlongs as the Dubai World Cup winner and last year’s Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) winner at Santa Anita. After finishing second to Royal Ship in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in his return effort in July, he should move forward in his second start off the layoff in this spot. 

If Flightline does not fire for any reason, Country Grammer could even win. Otherwise, Country Grammer works as the underneath horse in an exacta.

Exacta: 5 / 2

Show: 2 (if Flightline attracts 90 percent of show pool)