Saturday plays: 6 picks for Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Santa Anita

Pace collapses can prove hard to predict with jockeys liable to switch tactics. In the case of the $150,000 American Beauty Stakes at Oaklawn though, at least two mares want the lead at all costs and other speed types are present as well.

If everything sets up right, the closer French Empire is a candidate to pull off a surprise. She enters in good form with two recent wins and one second-place finish.

French Empire is the lone long shot in the six selections below.

Oaklawn Race 5: $200,000 Martha Washington Stakes

As written in an earlier post, Coach is a reliable option with a maiden win routing and third-place finish in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) for trainer Brad Cox. The only drawback is the 7-5 odds, but there is a chance the public favors Joy’s Rocket instead.

Joy’s Rocket enters with two straight stakes wins, which came in the Songbird Stakes and Letellier Memorial Stakes at sprint distances. In her lone route attempt, she folded to a well-beaten fourth after setting the pace in the Frizette Stakes (G1).

On paper, Coach figures to sit right off Joy’s Rocket and Sylvia Q. Assuming Joy’s Rocket cannot handle the distance or early pressure, Coach can take advantage.  

Oaklawn Race 8: $150,000 American Beauty Stakes

French Empire rides a two-race win streak into the American Beauty Stakes after two straight optional claiming wins at Turfway Park. Before those back-to-back wins, she was also second in a one-mile optional claiming race at Churchill Downs.

For those able to find the replay of French Empire’s runner-up effort at Churchill Downs on Nov. 12, watch the striking move she makes approaching the turn. She looms large on the outside before flattening out late as the pacesetter Beautiful Drama slips away. That kind of pattern usually indicates a horse that needs a shorter distance.

Perhaps French Empire moved forward on synthetic at Turfway Park, but the cutback also helped make her closing kick more effective.

In this race, French Empire gets plenty of pace help up front with Lady’s Island, Amy’s Challenge and Frank’s Rockette, and an optimal six-furlong distance.

French Empire is 10-1 on the morning line and worth a shot at those odds.

Gulfstream Race 6: $100,000 Swale Stakes (G3)

Drain the Clock holds two advantages over his main rivals By George and Likeable.

For one, Drain the Clock owns a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his 7½-length win in the local Limehouse Stakes, which is the highest figure in the field.

Also, Drain the Clock already won over this course twice, giving him better familiarity. His trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is based at this course all year.

By George broke his maiden by 5¼ lengths at Aqueduct last month with a 99 on TimeformUS. Likeable’s impressive 8¼-length maiden win came at Belmont with a 103, before he folded in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after contesting the early pace.  

Given his TimeformUS figure and affinity for the course, Drain the Clock is the top choice. Expect his morning line odds of 5-2 to either hold or even float up.

Gulfstream Race 11: $200,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G2)

As stated in a previous article, Prime Factor won his local career debut with absolute ease by 8¾ lengths with a 106 on TimeformUS.

Prime Factor needs to stretch out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in this spot, but the pedigree favors handling the new distance. His second dam is Dance Swiftly, a full sister to 1991 Canadian Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Distaff champion Dance Smartly. Dance Swiftly is also a half-sister to the known route sire Smart Strike.

Although TimeformUS Pace Projector puts Prime Factor on the lead, he could possibly sit off a horse or two if necessary. But if Prime Factor sets the pace, that is not a huge problem either as the race does not contain any insane speed types.

Prime Factor is the top choice, and a value if his 3-1 morning line holds.

Santa Anita Race 5: $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes (G2)

The favorite Idol enters this race off a second-place finish in the San Antonio Stakes (G2). After stalking the pace, he won a stretch battle with Take the One O One and Mucho Gusto. Unfortunately, the closer Kiss Today Goodbye mowed them all down for the victory.

Despite the loss, Idol is playable in this race because of a possible setup. Tizamagician figures to contest the pace with King Guillermo and Zestful, making the situation favorable for either Idol or Express Train if they can take advantage.

Express Train does not seem to finish off his races in recent times. He hung for second in a local Sept. 26 optional claiming race against Extra Hope. Then in the recent Malibu Stakes (G1) last month, no one was expecting him to win considering the presence of Charlatan and Nashville. However, he almost lost second after Collusion Illusion came within half a length at the wire.

By the process of elimination, Idol is left. Besides the San Antonio runner-up, he shows a maiden win and 5¾-length allowance victory at Churchill Downs. If nothing else, his career is only getting started and the ceiling remains high.

Santa Anita Race 7: $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)

Medina Spirit is the best horse in the race.

After making up ground late in the Sham Stakes (G3), he only lost by ¾ of a length to the talented Life Is Good, while also finishing 13 lengths ahead of Parnelli.

If Parnelli is 13 lengths worse than Medina Spirit in the Sham, the chances of him making up those lengths and beating Medina Spirit in this spot seem dim.  

Remember that Parnelli had narrow losses to Hot Rod Charlie and Spielberg in the past. He is on their level, and those two horses are entered in this race. If Parnelli is a mile worse than Medina Spirit, there is no reason to choose Hot Rod Charlie or Spielberg either. To add to that, Medina Spirit easily beat Spielberg in a recent workout.  

On TimeformUS, Medina Spirit owns a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his Sham runner-up. That is the best number in the race by six points, which is significant.

Even at a short price, Medina Spirit is a single candidate.