Saturday plays: 4 exactas for Breeders' Cup day 2
One of the greatest Breeders’ Cup lessons is to avoid chasing every race. Most handicappers prefer certain types of races and the Breeders’ Cup does not suddenly make them better at analyzing other race categories.
With that lesson in mind, this is a collection of suggested exactas for select races on Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Keeneland. The four covered races include the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, Dirt Mile, Mile and Classic.
Keeneland Race 3: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Goodnight Olive carries a five-race win streak and beat three of these runners already when she won the Ballerina Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. For the Ballerina win, Goodnight Olive earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
If Goodnight Olive repeats the same figure or improves upon it, she wins.
With a fast pace ahead, Obligatory might pick up the pieces for second if she gives her best and avoids traffic. Obligatory's one effort on this track was disappointing though.
If not Obligatory, the closing Test Stakes (G1) winner Chi Town Lady could take another step forward. She won the Test under mostly a hand ride. Also, the Japanese invader Chain of Love is a wild card with some value.
Win: 8 (at 5/2 or higher)
Exacta wheel: 8 / 3,6,7
Keeneland Race 5: Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Under trainer Bob Baffert, Laurel River has won three races in a row.
In his most recent start, Laurel River captured the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2) at Del Mar by 3 3/4 lengths over American Theorem in second and Senor Buscador in third. Laurel River earned a 120 on TimeformUS for the win.
Senor Buscador went on to capture the Ack Ack Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. The fifth-place The Chosen Vron won the E.B. Johnston Stakes at Los Alamitos in his next start. Also, the sixth-place Defunded won the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita. Clearly, Laurel River beat a good field at Del Mar.
With his tactical speed, Laurel River can also sit in a beautiful spot right behind the leaders before taking over on the far turn.
Cody’s Wish beat the highly respected Jackie’s Warrior in the Forego Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in his most recent start. No other horse has finished in front of Jackie Warrior this year. If he can avoid traffic, he can come late for second after Laurel River opens up on the field.
Win: 6 (at 3-1 or higher)
Exacta: 6 / 7
Keeneland Race 8: Breeders' Cup Mile
Modern Games’ gave an impressive performance in the Woodbine Mile (G1) in September when he won by 5 1/4 lengths over Ivar in second.
Although Modern Games went on to finish a disappointing second to the longshot Bayside Boy in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) at Ascot, maybe he did not handle the wet surface. On the switch back to a firm turf course at Keeneland, the dominating Woodbine version of him could show up again.
Ivar always feels like a threat for second. He knows how to pick off tired horses in the lane and make the exacta and trifectas more interesting.
Dreamloper won the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) by 5 1/2 lengths in his last start over a former Breeders’ Cup Mile winner in Order of Australia.
Domestic Spending won the Turf Classic Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs and Manhattan Stakes (G1) at Belmont last year. He has hit the board an impressive eight times in eight starts. The 448-day layoff is an obvious concern, but trainer Chad Brown must know he is ready to fire.
Win: 4 (at 5/2 or higher)
Exacta wheel: 4 / 3,6,14
Keeneland Race 11: Breeders' Cup Classic
Flightline has given the impression of a special talent capable of turning in the kind of performances fans will remember for the rest of their lives.
In Flightline’s most recent start, he won the Pacific Classic (G1) in August at Del Mar by 19 1/4 lengths with an incredible 152 TimeformUS Speed Figure. As long as Flightline comes close to matching that TimeformUS figure, he will win the Classic by a significant margin.
Epicenter won the Travers Stakes (G1) by 5 1/4 lengths with "only" a 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He can pick off the tired horses late for second.
Exacta: 4 / 6