Saturday Plays: 3 picks for Churchill Downs opening night

Derby week is almost here. On Saturday night, Churchill Downs opens its traditional spring meet with a 10-race card featuring the $160,000 Roxelana Stakes for older filly and mare sprinters. Although the six-furlong race is not as strong in terms of quality compared to recent years, it does offer a competitive five-horse field.

Here are three selections for the card.

Churchill Downs Race 1: Claiming $20k

In Speed Boat’s most recent start, he set the pace in a one mile and 70 yard allowance race at Hawthorne before fading to third. One month earlier, he won a six-furlong maiden claiming race at Santa Anita.

Speed Boat now cuts back to six-and-a-half furlongs in this claiming race. On paper, he is supposed to secure an uncontested lead.

On the cutback to a sprint, Speed Boat is the choice. Even though he is 7/5 on the morning line, those are fair odds given his pace advantage.

Speed Boat works as a single in multi-race wagers.

Churchill Downs Race 6: 3YO+ Maiden

At this track, 1 1/4-mile dirt maiden races are a normal sight.  

Miss Yearwood deserves the most respect after finishing second to Distinctlypossible in an April 10 Keeneland maiden race. From eighth place and seven lengths behind at the half mile, Miss Yearwood closed the gap to only 1 1/4 lengths at the finish.

Remember, Distinctlypossible was second in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) last October. 

From a pedigree standpoint, Miss Yearwood is perfect for the stretchout as a daughter of Will Take Charge out of an Awesome Again mare named Satisfaction. Satisfaction is a half-sister to Dancing Forever, the winner of the 1 1/2-mile Elkhorn Stakes (G2) and 1 1/4-mile Manhattan Handicap (G1) in 2008.

As long as the odds do not get too low, Miss Yearwood is playable. 

Win: 6 (at 3-1 or higher)

Churchill Downs Race 9: Roxelana Stakes

The undefeated Carribean Caper is the 8/5 on the morning line, but she does not stand out on paper. The opponents she beat throughout the five-race winning streak are questionable in quality. 

For example, Carribean Caper won the Dogwood Stakes (G3) last September, but four out of five runners from the race lost their next starts. The lone next-out winner, Patty H, took a Belmont optional claimer before running fourth in an optional claimer at Aqueduct.

An interesting alternative pick is Club Car. 

After pressing a fast pace in the seven-furlong Madison Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, Club Car folded badly to seventh while losing by 16 lengths.

Because of the harsh pace, Club Car gets a pass for quitting late.

Last October, Club Car ran second by a neck in the six-furlong Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) to Bell’s the One. Then in November, Club Car was second again to Bell’s the One by one length in the local six-furlong Dream Supreme Stakes after briefly leading.

In this spot, Club Car cuts back to six furlongs and faces lesser opponents.

This five-horse field does not contain any fillies or mares on the same level as Bell’s the One. If Club Car leads them into the turn, she can hold on without the high-class Bell's the One aiming to mow her down.

Because of the fade in the Madison though, demand a value price.

Win: 4 (at 3-1 or higher)