Saturday Plays: Bet these 3 on Diana card at Saratoga

Although it is tempting to play against the favorite Bleecker Street in the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday, the pace scenario sets up well for her running style. Perhaps she can be keyed on top.  

As for the Grade 3, $175,000 Sanford Stakes for 2-year-olds, the race brings together a full field of 12 colts ready to take their first steps onto the graded stakes level. Given the potential of these inexperienced runners to improve quickly, there is value in predicting if any of them can jump forward.

Below are picks and bets for the Diana, Sanford and the opening maiden claiming race.

Saratoga Race 1: MCL $40k

Mistical Curlin shows a 4-0-0-0 record, but there are positive points about his recent form and placement into this $40k maiden claimer.

In Mistical Curlin’s most recent start, he dropped into a $75k maiden claimer for trainer Ken McPeek and displayed improved speed. In fact, Mistical Curlin matched the pacesetter Old Hickory on the far turn before fading to sixth.

Now, Mistical Curlin drops even further to this $40k maiden claiming level. He also cuts back to one mile after running one mile and one-sixteenth.

At 6-1 or higher, Mistical Curlin is playable as a win bet, or win and place.

Win/place: 7 (at 6-1 or higher)

Saratoga Race 8: Diana Stakes (G1)

With Dalika and In Italian set to contest the lead, and Technical Analysis not far behind them, the race sets up for the remaining closers left.

The top closer Bleecker Street figures to start at less than even money, but she deserves the low odds after winning four races in a row including the New York Stakes (G1) at Belmont after overcoming a slow pace.

In contrast, her stablemate Rougir is on a strange “good race, bad race” pattern after winning the Beaugay Stakes (G3) back in May and finishing a fifth in the New York Stakes (G1) and two lengths behind Bleecker Street.

Technical Analysis has faded in her two nine-furlong races.

Creative Flair lost her last two starts in North America as well. She won at Meydan in February, but typically those races feature weaker horses.

As another plus for Bleecker Street, the 4-year-old daughter of Kingman retains the services of jockey Irad Ortiz. Jr. for trainer Chad Brown.

Expect Bleecker Street to overcome the slow pace again and prevail. For value in the second spot, try to beat the expected second choice Rougir.

Win: 3 (at even money or higher)

Exacta wheel: 3 / 2,5,6

Saratoga Race 10: Sanford Stakes (G2)

In his first start, Major Dude broke his maiden at Monmouth by 3 3/4 lengths with only a 79 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The speed figure is figure is 21 points below Forte’s debut figure and 19 below Andiamo de Firenze.

However, 2-year-old speed figures are not as important because of the development process at this point in their careers. These are still babies.

For those who can watch the replay, study how Major Dude waits patiently behind horses while heading into the turn, before taking the lead and drawing clear for a promising win. This colt can endure taking dirt in the pocket before moving on the turn. That note is important because Major Dude drew Post 2 in this race and might get stuck in the inside position.

Six years ago, Sweet Loretta won the Schuylerville Stakes (G3) for trainer Todd Pletcher after breaking her maiden at Monmouth. Although the Schuylerville is for fillies, the pattern remains the same. Pletcher knows how to prepare a 2-year-old at Monmouth first before winning over at Saratoga.    

John Velazquez takes the mount on Major Dude.

If by some chance Major Dude becomes overbet, then also consider the outside closer Valenzan Day for a win bet. He owns some of the highest TimeformUS numbers in the field and closed nicely for third in the Tremont Stakes at Belmont after a troubled trip. He might float up higher than Major Dude.

Nevertheless, Major Dude should step forward in his graded stakes debut this weekend. Whether he can win off the average-looking TimeformUS figure is debatable, but he offers value at 10-1 if those odds hold, while most of the public will prefer his stablemate Forte at lower odds.

Win/place: 2 (at 6-1 or higher)