Saturday play: Pretty Birdie can fly to lead in Roxelana

Frank’s Rockette meets a speedy opponent in Pretty Birdie in the $175,000 Roxelana Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday night. Although Frank’s Rockette brings better recent form, Pretty Birdie does offer bettors at least one good reason to side with her instead.

Pretty Birdie offers better early speed than Frank’s Rockette, and there are no other fillies or mares here besides those two that can set the pace.

In fact, Pretty Birdie set the pace in her last three starts dating back to December, even if she had to duel with other fillies to get that lead. She knows no other way to run, and she gets brave if she ends up loose. 

Back in that December start, Pretty Birdie set the pace in the Poinsettia Stakes at Oaklawn with a one-length cushion through the first two quarters.

After the easy half mile, Pretty Birdie opened up on the turn and maintained the margin throughout the stretch run for a two-length win over Sarah Harper. In her next start, Sarah Harper went on to finish third in the American Beauty Stakes.

Two months later in the Carousel Stakes, Pretty Birdie caught a sloppy track and needed to duel with Yuugiri through the early stages. Yuugiri eventually gained the upper hand and won by 3 1/2 lengths over Pretty Birdie. To Pretty Birdie’s credit though, she still had 3 1/4 lengths over the third-place finisher Hazy Command.

Then in the Matron Stakes, also at Oaklawn, Pretty Birdie dueled again and this time with I’m the Boss of Me, but they ended up cooking each other completely and setting up the race for Wicked Halo. This time Pretty Birdie endured a suicidal pace through fractions of 21.15 and 44.25 seconds, which resulted in huge 148 and 135 TimeformUS Pace Figures for those fractions.  

Because of the suicidal pace, Pretty Birdie folded to last in the four-horse field and lost by 20 lengths, although she did lose to good company in the winner Wicked Halo and runner-up Matareya. Wicked Halo had run third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, while Matareya won the Acorn Stakes (G1) last June.

Now Pretty Birdie catches a six-horse field with a mild to soft pace on paper.

Frank’s Rockette has been impressive in her past two starts. Over at Gulfstream, she won the Sugar Swirl Stakes (G3) by an impressive 8 1/4 lengths and the Hurricane Bertie Stakes by 8 lengths.

Yet, Frank’s Rockette feels more natural in the stalking role at 6 furlongs and most likely cannot outfoot Pretty Birdie to the lead. Even though Frank’s Rockette set the pace in the Sugar Swirl, those pace figures of 123 and 117 will not secure the lead in this pace situation with Pretty Birdie ready to go.   

Coppelia in the outside post ran a distant third in the Sugar Swirl, but she cannot duel with Pretty Birdie either. She runs as a stalker in almost every race.

To her credit, Coppelia did win the Dream Supreme Stakes over this track last November. But she needs Pretty Birdie and Frank’s Rockette to misfire.

Pretty Birdie is the right choice, especially at her morning line odds of 7/2. She can secure the lead and get brave from that point. 

In case Frank’s Rockette runs outside of the exacta, it might make sense to throw in a place bet along with the standard win bet on Pretty Birdie.

Win/place: 5