Saturday plays: This horse can steal Jim Dandy at Saratoga

Saudi Crown takes the next logical step in his career by competing in the Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday. While Saudi Crown brings the raw talent seen in his first few races, he also brings crucial speed to the table and will need to make use of his speedy running style in order to defeat the heavy favorite Forte.

Is Saudi Crown or Forte the right choice? First, here are some thoughts on two races earlier in the card, including a loaded maiden special weight for 2-year-olds containing a full brother to Mage and the Vanderbilt Stakes (G1).

Saratoga race 7: Maiden special weight

Dornoch figures to attract attention as a full brother to Mage, especially with his bullet workout on July 22. But if there is one point to criticize about that fast work, it is that Dornoch broke slowly before getting into full stride. If he repeats the mistake in a real race, it may cost him early.

One other interesting first-timer starter is the Chad Brown-trained Global Perspective. The son of Tapit out of the Indian Charlie mare Rosemonde is a half-brother to Rowayton, who broke his maiden at first asking in 2018 before running second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) after setting the pace.

Global Perspective lacks any bullet workouts, but in two videos seen on XBTV, he moves like a colt with talent. His workout partner in those videos is Middle Market. Before turning one, Middle Market cost $250,000 in the 2021 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

Brown fares well with first-time starters and he gives Global Perspective the best chance to win by gaining the services of Flavien Prat for his debut.

If the board shows any action on Global Perspective, then he is live. For multi-race wagers though, the Mage sibling is worth including in tickets too.

Win/place: 9 (at 6-1 or lower)

Saratoga race 8: Vanderbilt Stakes (G1)

As tempting as it might seem to play against Elite Power, he shows flawless form on paper with seven wins in a row dating back to his maiden breaker last summer. His two wins this year came in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint over in Saudi Arabia and the recent True North Stakes (G2) at Belmont in June.

In the Riyadh Dirt Sprint, Elite Power won by 3 1/4 lengths over Gunite, who is listed as the 8/5 morning line second choice here. Elite Power is 4/5.

Elite Power also won the Vosburgh Stakes (G2) and Breeders’ Cup Sprint last fall to assert his leading position in the sprint division.

Not all of Elite Power’s speed figures stand out. But the figures do not matter a whole lot with him. His instinct to keep on winning makes him impressive.  

Elite Power is a single in all multi-race wagers.

Saratoga race 10: Jim Dandy Stakes (G2)

Forte heads into this race at a critical point in his campaign where he needs to remind the racing audience he can still win races. The son of Violence lacks any win since the Florida Derby (G1) in April, although he was kept out of the Kentucky Derby and made to compete in the 12-furlong Belmont off the layoff, and still ran well enough to finish second.

In the Belmont, Forte’s wide move cost him, as the winner Arcangelo saved all the ground and went through the inside for his winning move. 

However, Forte faces a disadvantage in this spot because of the pace scenario. The up-and-comer Saudi Crown looks probable to secure the lead in this five-horse field and he might not even need to run hard to hit the front.

In his most recent start, Saudi Crown set the pace in the Dwyer Stakes (G3) uncontested through the first half before facing the challenge of the Bob Baffert-trained Fort Bragg. The two of them left the rest of the field behind and went to battle each other through the entire stretch run, with Fort Bragg prevailing by the narrowest of margins at the wire.

Despite finishing second, Saudi Crown still had 11 lengths on the third-place finisher Harrodsburg, which indicates he turned in a fast race visually. Saudi Crown also earned a 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which beats any TimeformUS figure on Forte’s record by 10 points.   

The Dwyer fractions were not slow either, with Saudi Crown hitting the half in 44.63 seconds. Given that Saudi Crown owns that kind of speed, who will press him in this Jim Dandy field filled with midpack closer types at best?

Forte usually runs as a midpack closer, although he does add on blinkers. Switching to blinkers tends to result in more early speed.

Regardless, Saudi Crown is the choice based on the given pace scenario. But he likely needs to stay at his morning line odds in order to remain intriguing enough to play.

Win: 4 (at 5/2 or higher)

Exacta: 4 with 2