Saratoga plays: Quick Call, Schuylerville and 2 maiden races
Finding anyone in the horse racing world who does not love Saratoga opening day is difficult. To most bettors, this is Christmas and more.
Without a long introduction, here are picks for select races on the July 14 opening card: two dirt maiden races, the Quick Call Stakes (G3) and a shorter recap of the full Schuylerville Stakes (G3) analysis.
Saratoga Race 2: Maiden
Speedometer is the morning-line favorite at 9-5 and a logical choice after
finishing third to a promising filly in Pretty Birdie on June 18 at Churchill
Downs.
Watching the replay, she ran awkwardly through the stretch when lugging in and figures to move forward with that experience under her belt. The familiar team of jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., trainer Steven Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds is behind this filly, which means there are high expectations and lower odds.
If Speedometer’s odds become too low, then Microbiome is a solid alternative at 5-2 on the morning line. Although she lacks a start for trainer Tom Amoss, she shows two bullet workouts and another quick four-furlong work in 47 flat on June 12.
- Data to tackle first-timers with confidence
- Stats on first and second-time sires & trainers
- Which sires, trainers are overlays? Underlays?
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According to First-Timer Insights from HRN Pro Reports, the public underrates first-time starters from Twirling Candy with an Impact score of +30 percent.
Amoss does not win at Saratoga as often as at other tracks, but he probably believes Microbiome has talent if he brought this filly here as a first-time starter.
For a 20-1 long shot, think about Everyoneloveslinda. First-time starters sired by Secret Circle win 20 percent of the time out of a sample size of 44. Also, First-Timer Insights gives Secret Circle first-timer starters a lofty Impact score of +86 percent. The +86 percent means bettors ignore this sire’s debut runners greatly.
Saratoga Race 5: Maiden
Repealing is an interesting first-time starter who brings a win-early pedigree to this race for trainer Al Stall Jr.
Her dam O So Appealing is a half-sister to Jersey Girl, a successful runner who won over $571k. In 1997 as a 2-year-old filly, Jersey Girl lost her career debut by a neck in May, broke her maiden in June and won the Astoria Stakes at Belmont the next month. The following year, Jersey Girl then won the Acorn Stakes (G1), Mother Goose Stakes (G1) and Test Stakes (G1) to close out a successful career in sharp fashion.
Also, Repealing’s sire is the win-early Constitution, who hits with first-time starters at 18 percent out of 175, with a First-Timer Insights Impact score of +25 percent.
Off the pedigree alone, Repealing is a major contender.
Also consider Solasta, who is a Goldencents filly out of Greer Lynn. Of course, Greer Lynn is the dam of Mia Mischief, who won $1.2 million in her sprint career.
Similar to Jersey Girl, Mia Mischief ran a good second when debuting in September 2017. One month later, she then broke her maiden by 16 1/4 lengths. Mia Mischief’s later career highlights include winning the 2019 Humana Distaff (G1) and 2018 Eight Belles Stakes (G2). She was fast and consistent throughout her career.
Goldencents on top does not hurt. He won at first asking as a 2-year-old in 2012, before finishing second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and winning the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3) later in the year.
The third selection is Echo Zulu, a Gun Runner half-sister to six-figure earners Echo Town and J Boys Echo.
Echo Town broke his maiden at first asking last year. The highlight of his campaign came when he won the Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) in August at Saratoga. As for J Boys Echo, he broke his maiden in his second start in 2016 at Keeneland. The following spring, he also tried the Derby trail and won the Gotham Stakes (G3).
Echo Zulu cost $300k as a yearling last September. The short work tab of five works is a good sign, as it means Asmussen saw ability early and thinks she can fire.
Saratoga Race 8: Quick Call Stakes
Although 1-2 Golden Pal can win as the heavy favorite, he enters this race off a 251-day layoff after taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November.
The 3-1 morning line second choice Jaxon Traveler is in with a good chance.
Jaxon Traveler has plenty of talent on dirt with four wins in six starts, including the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn three months ago. He also ran second in the Chick Lang Stakes (G3) at Pimlico to a good horse in Mighty Mischief.
In his most recent start, Jaxon Traveler was second to Outadore in the Woodstock Stakes on Woodbine’s synthetic track.
The Quick Call is a turf sprint, and Jaxon Traveler has not tried the green surface. Pedigree-wise, there is not a problem as Jaxon Traveler’s active half-brother Nuclear Option has won multiple five-furlong turf sprints. Also, most horses that handle synthetic can handle turf as well, although that is not a hard rule.
Given Golden Pal’s extremely low odds, Jaxon Traveler is the choice.
Saratoga Race 9: Schuylerville Stakes (G3)
As stated in an earlier post, this is not an easy race to pinpoint one filly.
Mainstay enters this race off a 7 3/4-length victory at Monmouth under a handride and sports a great pedigree as a half-sister to Vequist. Last summer, Vequist won the Spinaway Stakes (G1) at the end of the Saratoga meet in September.
Velvet Sister broke her maiden by 9 3/4 lengths at Belmont against two other fillies easily. Considering the recent $500k purchase price in March, the connections of trainer Steven Asmussen and owner Stonestreet Stables likely expect this filly to pay off in stakes races soon.
Happy Soul is the established filly in this race after winning the Astoria Stakes by 11 1/2 lengths last month at Belmont. She also won at first asking by 11 3/4 lengths.
Those are the top three choices.
For those who want to spread further, Pretty Birdie and Eagle Express also displayed talent in their maiden wins at Churchill Downs and Lone Star. Pay attention to how Speedometer runs earlier in the card before making a decision on Pretty Birdie, as Speedometer had faded to third in Pretty Birdie’s maiden win.