Restoring Hope's Belmont 2018 tactics not unprecedented

Restoring Hope’s early moves, which are speculated could have helped Justify in the Belmont Stakes, are not unusual when it comes to the Bob Baffert camp in major races.

There are several examples of aggressive, early race tactics used to put his top horse in a position to win. When analyzed as isolated incidents, the supposed gate strategy used could be seen as both an accident or coincidence. Pieced together, they seem to form a pattern.. 

Three and a half years ago, Bayern notably broke inward in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic, appearing to interfere with Shared Belief.

Stewards tend to give more breathing room at the start because they do not wish to predict the outcome minus the foul from such an early point in the race. Bayern stayed up as the winner.

A similar incident occurred in 2017, though in a race with much less of a national spotlight. Take a look at the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita:

Baffert-trained American Freedom, from the rail, seems to break right sharply and into Follow Me Crev. Maybe the horse just broke awkwardly and Martin Garcia could not control him. Garcia also rode Bayern in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

In other words, it seems Baffert is not opposed to using strategy out of the gate within the rules of the game. Is it debatable that those two examples were accidents? Yes. But there are more examples. 

Those races only feature one Baffert horse creating the foul. In the Belmont, it was a tag team effort with Justify and Restoring Hope, Baffert-trained horses with different owners. It was similar to when Mr. Z provided a screen for favored American Pharoah early in the Kentucky Derby.

At the time, Ahmed Zayat owned both Mr. Z and American Pharoah, but D. Wayne Lukas trained Mr. Z. Would Lukas allow such a strategy?

Perhaps he did not, and it was all just a coincidence, but the same screen strategy happened in another race involving Shared Belief in 2014's Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita.

Baffert-trained Fed Biz sat on the rail, and he got a cozy trip on the inside cutting the corner to set a comfortable pace. The Hall of Famer also trained Sky Kingdom, who carried Shared Belief wide on the first turn and prevented the favorite from dropping in at any point. Sky Kingdom eventually quit on the far turn, just as Restoring Hope did at Belmont.

“These guys are fierce competitors,” Baffert said, following news that Sky Kingdom jockey Victor Espinoza received a seven-day suspension for the ride. “I see it happen to my horses when you have a good one. I didn’t tell Victor to do that. He stayed away from my other horse, Fed Biz . . . Game On Dude, that’s why I retired him, because he was starting to get mugged, every race. I didn’t cry about it. I just retired him.”

To be fair to Restoring Hope's connections, owners Gary and Mary West and jockey Florent Geroux, perhaps Geroux only wanted to establish a good position.

Baffert said Monday morning on NBC's "The Today Show" that Restoring Hope is “the kind of horse that can’t be behind horses, or he won’t run. They don’t like the dirt.”

“He broke a little slow. (Jockey Florent Geroux) got him up into position, but then (Restoring Hope) got rank with him.”

“(Geroux) got him out a little bit, then he calmed down, then he got back.” 

The comments fall in line with the only possible non-conspiracy explanation for Restoring Hope’s actions out of the gate. Watching the head-on replay, though, Restoring Hope accomplished much to aid Justify before the clubhouse turn.

Restoring Hope appears to come in toward Hofburg, before shifting out and discouraging Tenfold and finally coming into Noble Indy’s path heading into the turn. He then boxes in Bravazo, preventing him from flanking Justify. 

Could all that be a coincidence? Again, yes. But the topic of Restoring Hope as a “wingman” is at least worth mentioning given the history.

Some pointed out Noble Indy was not going to challenge for the lead anyway, but it is impossible to know with a horse coming out into his path. Pacesetters are sometimes fragile-minded and get discouraged at any obstacle. 

Owner Mike Repole commented saying the stewards should look at the Geroux/Restoring Hope incident. He was also unhappy Javier Castellano did not try harder to send Noble Indy up front. 

Yet, it is widely believed he intended Noble Indy as a rabbit in the race for Vino Rosso, creating a double standard of morals. 

Would Justify still win without Restoring Hope's actions? It is impossible to know for certain. 

But without Restoring Hope, Bravazo may have received an outside opening to pressure earlier, and Noble Indy would get no excuse for not being sent. Maybe even Tenfold could have placed forwardly. Each of them were affected by the start. 

While the opening quarter went in a fast 23.37. Justify then slowed it down to a more reasonable 48.11 and 1:13.21 while relatively uncontested. 

On the far turn, late closer Gronkowski made a sharp-looking run from the inside, and for a few moments actually looked like a win threat. With a faster pace, maybe Gronkowski would be the shocking Triple Crown spoiler. 

Handicapping goes beyond numbers and past performances. Bettors need to look at the situation and think about the connections' intentions. At times, horsemen use creative strategy to win races, and while difficult on new bettors, it happens. And it helps to know the history.