Kentucky Derby 2023: Ranking the best Cox 3-year-olds

Trainer Brad Cox officially won his first Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun via disqualification last February after the race finished in May 2021. With an endless supply of good horses, it seems inevitable that Cox will capture a second edition soon. Maybe his next one will come this year.

Here is one man’s opinion of Cox’s best Derby trail 3-year-olds right now, and accompanying Las Vegas odds from Caesar’s Palace and Circa.

1. Victory Formation

Caesar’s: 50-1

Circa: 45-1

With three wins in three starts, Victory Formation has been perfect at this point in his career for Cox. His most recent win came on the stretchout in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, where he took control early and always held a one-length margin or better throughout the one-mile race until he pulled away in the stretch by three lengths.

Victory Formation finished the Smarty Jones in 1:38.14, which earned him a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form, and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

In late November, Victory Formation took a six-furlong optional claiming race at Churchill Downs after sitting off the pacesetter in the early stages, which gives him minor versatility. Note the third-place Lugan Knight, who went on to capture the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct.

Right now, Victory Formation looks like a Vegas value.

2. Loggins

Caesar’s: 20-1

Circa: 32-1

Well, where is Loggins?

Loggins’ career started off on the right foot last September after he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs by 8 1/2 lengths in a sprint race.

A few weeks afterwards, Loggins went on to finish a game second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland after enduring a difficult pace scenario where he took all the heat as the inside speed horse and battled Forte in the stretch. Forte went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his next start.  

For the Breeders’ Futurity effort, Loggins earned a 91 Beyer and lofty 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But Loggins skipped the Breeders’ Cup, and the worktab shows nothing from him at the moment. Part of deciding whether a 3-year-old makes a good Derby future bet is assessing his overall health, and three months with no works gives a bad signal.  

3. Giant Mischief

Caesar’s: 30-1

Circa: 35-1

On the Breeders’ Cup undercard, Giant Mischief and Arabian Lion put on quite a show at Keeneland in a seven-furlong optional claiming race. After a fierce battle in the stretch, Giant Mischief won by 3/4 of a length over the regally bred Arabian Lion, who had 17 1/2 lengths on Old Alliance in third.

Giant Mischief followed up the giant effort by finishing second by 1 1/4 lengths to Wildatlanticstorm in the Remington Springboard Mile one month later.

But the loss is forgivable. Giant Mischief failed to break well at Remington and spent the first two quarters in last before making a wide move to put himself in position on the far turn. By then, Giant Mischief expended his energy recovering from the start and had a right to quit.

For the runner-up effort in the Springboard Mile, Giant Mischief earned a 91 Beyer and 111 on TimeformUS.

Giant’s Mischief pedigree feels like one concern, as the dam Vertical Oak spent her career as a sprinter. For horseplayers in Las Vegas searching for a Cox 3-year-old with value, perhaps this is not the right one. For now though, he gets the benefit of the doubt and earns the third spot.

4. Verifying

Caesar’s: 90-1

Circa: 75-1

Verifying splashed onto the scene with a runner-up finish to Blazing Sevens in the Champagne Stakes (G1) last October at Aqueduct over the slop.

Off the promising graded stakes debut, Cox tried running Verifying in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. Verifying started poorly and endured a wide trip throughout the race. He finished a troubled sixth.

But when Verifying made his return Saturday at Oaklawn, he gave Derby watchers something to talk about by winning a one-mile optional claimer by 5 1/4 lengths in a snappy 1:37.23. Later in the card, the older horse Ginobili won the one-mile Fifth Season Stakes in 1:37.35 over a solid group. The Fifth Season had the feel of a real Grade 3. 

Verifying earned a 97 Beyer in his optional claimer romp, and Ginobili posted a 96. If Verifying could take that kind of ability to longer distances on the Derby trail, the sky is the limit for this half-brother to Midnight Bisou.

Given those thoughts, 90-1 on Verifying at Caesar’s Palace looks like a great deal if they still offer those odds. With that said, there is a lingering chance Verifying develops into a fast miler rather than a router.

5. Instant Coffee

Caesar’s: 50-1

Circa: 70-1

Even though Instant Coffee took the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in a slow time, maybe he deserves a pass for now because of the slow early pace. After all, the pacesetter Gigante led them through a crawling 24.76-second opening quarter and 50 seconds for the half-mile.  

Instant Coffee could not blow the race open in the stretch. But he did enough to win by 1 1/4 lengths over a troubled Curly Jack in second, while earning an 82 Beyer and 97 on TimeformUS.  

Before the Kentucky Jockey Club, Instant Coffee made a decent closing bid for fourth in the strong Breeders’ Futurity. As stated above, the winner Forte went on to capture the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his next race. In addition, the fifth-place Newgate went on to recently finish second in the Sham Stakes (G3) and the seventh-place Two Phil's won the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. The race had quality.

In September, Instant Coffee broke his maiden at Saratoga. Notice the fourth-place Dubyuhnell, who eventually won the Remsen Stakes (G2) in December.

Instant Coffee needs to run faster than he did in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and his closing style might work to his disadvantage more often than not. Still, he does deserve credit for overcoming a slow pace as a closer, and he offers high odds for those who want to take a shot.