Ranking the Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis and Withers Stakes

When ranking the quality of the three major Kentucky Derby points races that were Saturday, the best one seems clear. Despite its small field, the Grade 3, $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita contains the fastest and classiest 3-year-olds relative to the other prep races. 

This column was written before the postponement of the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct was announced, though many of these horses should return on its new date of Feb. 11.

All four entries in the Robert B. Lewis are trained by Bob Baffert, and he rarely enters a throwout in any stakes race. This one is no different.  

For example, the field is led by the exciting Arabian Lion, who threw a clunker in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December by fading to fifth.

But in November on the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland undercard, Arabian Lion went to battle with Giant Mischief in a seven-furlong allowance optional-claiming race and lost by only 3/4 of a length while earning an impressive 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Giant Mischief went on to finish a troubled second in the Remington Springboard Mile. 

Despite the poor Los Alamitos effort, Arabian Lion still has the potential to become a star for the Baffert barn if he can build off the Keeneland race.

Arabian Lion’s main threat in the Robert B. Lewis is Newgate, and he lacks a graded-stakes win. But in his last two starts, Newgate ran second to Havnameltdown in the Bob Hope Classic (G2) at Del Mar and second to Reincarnate in the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Last Sunday, Havnameltdown won his return in the San Vicente Stakes (G2).

Newgate also competed against the best 2-year-olds in the country last year when he finished fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) won by Cave Rock and fifth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) won by Forte. Forte captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his next start, and Cave Rock finished a good second to Forte after the early pace took its toll on him.

Similar to Arabian Lion, Newgate’s best TimeformUS Speed Figure is 114.

After two losses, Worcester will attempt to break his maiden in the Robert B. Lewis. In his most recent maiden attempt, Worcester finished second to Hejazi, the third-place finisher in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) won by Cave Rock last fall.

Hard to Figure looks like the weakest Baffert entry. In his last start, he faded to fifth in the Bob Hope after flashing early speed. But even if Hard to Figure appears slow against his Santa Anita stablemates, his high TimeformUS Speed Figure of 103 would actually make him one of the faster horses in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.

On paper, the Holy Bull lacks any significantly fast horses on paper, which makes it no surprise that the favorite is unclear as well. The public will likely focus on Lord Miles, Cyclone Mischief and Rocket Can.

In his stakes debut, Lord Miles closed for third in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes with a 91 on TimeformUS, which is well below the standards set by the Santa Anita 3-year-olds. With that in mind, he still could move forward in his third career start for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. 

Cyclone Mischief has a bit more seasoning than Lord Miles. In his latest start on Jan. 8, he finished strongly to win a local one-mile optional claiming race by 5 3/4 lengths while earning a career-high 104 on TimeformUS. Two starts ago, Cyclone Mischief contested the slow pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs before fading slightly to seventh at the end as the closers engulfed him late

Even though Cyclone Mischief ran seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he competed against good horses such as Instant Coffee and Red Route One. At this maybe Cyclone Mischief can blossom into his full potential. 

On the Kentucky Jockey Club undercard, Rocket Can ran second to Confidence Game in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer, which earned a 104 on TimeformUS for him as. Given Rocket Can earned that figure two months ago, perhaps he is a stronger now. 

The entries will be redrawn for the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct on Wednesday. But the horses drawn before the race was postponed might seem a little faster than the Gulfstream group. Nevertheless, the overall class is not very strong.

Arctic Arrogance leads the field in class, with runner-up finishes in both the Remsen Stakes (G2) and Jerome Stakes. In the former race, he earned a career-high 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which places him somewhere between the best Robert B. Lewis horses and the slow Holy Bull Stakes field.

General Banker finished third in the Jerome with a 97 on TimeformUS, although two starts ago he did earn a 102 in the New York Stallion Series Stakes while blowing out the state-bred field by 8 1/2 lengths.

Ninetyprcentmaddie finished second in the Parx Juvenile Stakes early last month with 106 on TimeformUS. He also earned a 104 when he finished fourth in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes last November. Considering those races were run at the lower-tier Parx Racing, the figures seem surprisingly high. Can he transfer that form to Gulfstream?

Thanks to Baffert, it is clear Santa Anita offers the strongest prep race of the three in the Robert B. Lewis. In terms of which races feel playable, that topic is more debatable. Even though the Holy Bull lacks fast horses, it feels more attractive from a betting standpoint. From purely a fast horse standpoint though, the Robert B. Lewis wins.