Predicting Kentucky Derby 2018's complete order of finish
Some argue taking a short price on top in this field is crazy given the depth of this crop. On the flip side, it can also be argued the longshots are in over their head against horses such as Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible and Bolt d’Oro. Betting horses is not about taking a random chance with a mega longshot. There needs to be some educated reasoning behind the bet.
Wait until another year for the next Mine That Bird.
Justify remains this writer’s choice, although there are 19 other runners to think about. Here, I'll predict the full order of finish:
1. Justify – It's time for the anointed one to show if he is capable of defeating a 20-horse field in front of an insane crowd. He draws well and will be able to stalk outside, hopefully setting up an American Phaoroah-type trip.
2. Mendelssohn – Normally, the yearly UAE Derby (G2) winner is an automatic toss. But this horse could be different. While he enjoyed a fantastic trip on a golden rail over at Meydan, he took advantage the right way and sports a nice pedigree. From Post 14, expect him to follow the leading group.
3. Audible – The Florida Derby (G1) winner runs like a router. He is adaptable and expends his energy the right way. Yet, because he is the son of Into Mischief, people are dismissing him. Post 5 is a good spot.
4. Lone Sailor – Most editions of this race feature a crazy longshot that comes from behind to fill in the trifecta or superfecta. Maybe it could be Lone Sailor. He fits the outline of a closing horse who the public ignores. With Justify next door set to show speed, this one can drop in slightly.
5. Bolt d’Oro – He tried hard late in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) without ever threatening Justify. Furthermore, he has failed to cross the finish line first since last September. But the speed figures are still very respectable, and Post 11 is not a bad place to start.
6. Good Magic – Chad Brown’s Derby hopeful is a grinder. He has not impress on speed figures yet this year, although Saturday will mark his third start off the bench. From Post 6, he will probably let Justify to his outside go and settle a few lengths off the leaders. His best still may not be enough.
7. Flameaway – The hard-trying Scat Daddy colt loves to mix it up on the lead. Unfortunately in this spot, he must face Promises Fulfilled on the front end. Perhaps the pace will not go as fast as people think. He might stick around.
8. Hofburg – Emollient’s half-sibling followed Florida Derby winner Audible around the stretch, but could not close the deal. Both horses benefited from a pace setup. From Post 9, expect a closing run that is outshined by Audible once again.
9. My Boy Jack – Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack could be reversed on this list. The problem is, almost all these closers look the same on speed figures, but they can't all contend late. Post 10 is fine, but he is a tough horse to rank and can either hit the superfecta or run up the track.
10. Magnum Moon – The list is so difficult past the top three horses, that undefeated Magnum Moon is placed 10th here. There is potential for improvement. On paper though using speed figures, he is just not fast enough.
11. Vino Rosso – Post 18 is not ideal. Perhaps this closer from the Todd Pletcher barn can drop in and attempt to save some ground. He received a nice pace setup en route to winning the Wood Memorial (G2), although there will be pace again here so pointing it out might be a mute point.
12. Noble Indy – Speed horse from Pletcher barn was talented enough to overcome fast fractions in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Post 19 is awful.
13. Enticed – To give credit, he endured a fast pace in the Wood Memorial. But this runner never looked Old Time Revival in the eye. He just waited until the lone pacesetter became tired. Expect a ho-hum finish in this spot.
14. Free Drop Billy – Closer from Dale Romans barn will be glad to not face Sporting Chance, who has tried to wipe him out in two races now. Still, Post 2 could be difficult. Will Romans’ other horse Promises Fulfilled cut him off?
15. Instilled Regard – Late closer from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn is talented. Nevertheless, his dull fourth in the Santa Anita Derby was disappointing. If he fires, the ceiling is another fourth. To place him 15th in this ranking only shows the impressive depth of the field.
16. Solomini – A lot of readers will disagree with this placing. This colt is just so awkward that it seems unlikely a 20-horse cavalry will suit him.
17. Combatant – On his best day, he could clunk in for fourth. However, Post 20 will make life difficult, as he will probably get caught wide going into the first turn. Either wait for his next start or limit to underneath slots.
18. Firenze Fire – Miracles happen. Not in this case.
19. Promises Fulfilled – Bettors supporting any of the talented closers will be thankful for this entrant’s early speed. He should fold, though.
20. Bravazo – One of the rules of pace handicapping is to support horses who endured a fast pace and remain skeptical of those who folded. Bravazo folded in the Louisiana Derby as fellow Derby competitor Noble Indy endured. While Bravazo is drawn better, he is still a toss.