Predicting the full Kentucky Derby 2019 order of finish
No further need to speculate: I'm here to tell you the full 2019 Kentucky Derby order of finish. All that's left is to watch it unfold Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Don't you wish it was that easy? Analyzing horse races is already difficult, and all the variables in a 20-horse field adds new dimension to this puzzle.
Regardless, here is an attempt to predict one through 20 in the Derby combining anticipated pace, trip and, of course, talent. Through the process, hopefully readers will pick up a few ideas for their own analysis.
20th: Gray Magician (50-1) – In Southern California, this colt is a second-tier 3-year-old who finished eight lengths behind Extra Hope in a Jan. 31 allowance optional claiming race. Consider anything wagered on him to win as “dead money."
19th: Plus Que Parfait (30-1) – No UAE Derby (G2) winner has ever hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. The streak is unlikely to end here.
18th: Cutting Humor (30-1) – This one won the Sunland Derby (G3) and defeated the highly regarded Anothertwistafate in the process. The latter was going to receive significant attention from bettors if he made the Derby field. But Cutting Humor also performed poorly in the Southwest Stakes (G3) when fading to seventh, and Anothertwistafate is probably overrated.
17th: Master Fencer (50-1) – The Japanese invader is not in this league, as he was not even the best 3-year-old in his own country. An easy toss, but he gets bumped up a few spots because deep closers generally do not finish last.
16th: Haikal (30-1) – The half-brother to the sprinter stakes-winning Takaful received a generous pace setup in the Wood Memorial (G2) and only managed to finish third, four lengths behind Tacitus. Given the race flow helped his style, that is a disappointing effort. He will appreciate cutting back in distance once Derby fever subsides.
15th: Long Range Toddy (30-1) – When he mowed down Improbable in the Rebel Stakes (G2), perhaps that one needed a race to get back into the flow off the layoff. One race later, Long Range Toddy regressed in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and finished a distant sixth while Improbable was far ahead in second. It is possible the slop affected his performance, but rain is likely this week in Louisville, making it a tough task once again.
14th: Country House (30-1) – Post 20 crushes any hope for this colt. If Country House is hustled out of the gate, he will get caught wide by the middle pack. And if taken back to last, he will not find his way through heavy traffic. This late closer is not good enough to overcome adversity.
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13th: Win Win Win (15-1) – The distance is still a concern, as Win Win Win was sharper in his seven-furlong Pasco Stakes victory back in January. Afterward, he finished a hanging third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). In the latter contest, it is arguable he overcame a speed bias to close late. But the winner Vekoma is still preferable because of his tactical speed, while Win Win Win will try to close.
12th Maximum Security (10-1) – The slow-paced Florida Derby (G1) win is acceptable, if only because it does not disprove he can handle a faster pace. He only ran as fast as he needed to run early on. But it is troubling trainer Jason Servis continues to work him slow leading into this race, as he will face a vastly different pace scenario on Saturday. How will he react? It is impossible to tell without any fast-paced races or workouts on record.
11th: By My Standards (20-1) – He owns a small chance to upset. His sire, Goldencents, is a poor reason to toss, as more than one sprinter/miler sire in Derby history produced a successful Derby runner. But the Louisiana Derby (G2) is not highly regarded, and unlike Spinoff, this one saved a bit of ground. It is hard to ignore all the high praise over his workouts though, and he did earn a 102 Brisnet Speed Rating last time.
10th: War of Will (20-1) – Because War of Will drew the rail, he gets downgraded a few notches. Initially, he was considered for a Top 5 position. But the rail will force him to gun early. Even if he makes the front, Maximum Security or Omaha Beach will press him hard. If he fails to reach the front, then he could get shuffled back through all the traffic. But he is working well and there is value, as the rail will kill betting enthusiasm.
9th: Code of Honor (15-1) – What a confusing race. Code of Honor falls ninth on this list, but he has a case for winning, too. His effort in capturing the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) from mid-pack was solid after chasing the supersonic pace set by Hidden Scroll. In the Florida Derby, Maximum Security never gave the closers a chance with the sluggish pace. If the pace heats up in this spot, it is not hard to see this one making a nice rally.
8th: Spinoff (30-1) – In only his second start of the year, Spinoff finished runner-up in the Louisiana Derby after a slightly wide trip. He arguably ran better than the winner By My Standards, who saved more ground. Spinoff owns tactical speed too, which will come in handy here. Even if the Louisiana Derby was a weaker field, he is too talented to discount.
7th: Roadster (6-1) – Despite his seventh-place position in this order of finish, he might step forward with a big race and win. But the speed figures are a concern, as he only picked up a 113 on TimeformUS for his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win and 108 for the optional claimer one month earlier, and he enjoyed good trips in both races. Is he better than numbers suggest?
6th: Tax (20-1) – TimeformUS awarded Tax a 121 for running second in the Wood Memorial, one point higher than the winner, Tacitus, and equal to expected favorite Omaha Beach. He earned a high figure because TimeformUS awards pace points, and Tax owns more early zip. The early zip will prove useful, as he needs to secure a good position from Post 2 while not getting too caught up in a fast pace. Expect him to remain in the mix.
5th: Tacitus (10-1) – The Wood Memorial winner is running against history, as no horse from that prep race has won the Derby since Funny Cide in 2003. From a form standpoint alone, he does fit with a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure, only one point off race favorite Omaha Beach’s high of 121. Plus, the pedigree is beautiful for going long with Tapit over Close Hatches. In a weaker crop such as this one, he might end the long drought.
4th Vekoma (20-1) – The Derby superfecta always features a longshot, and Vekoma looks like a candidate to fill the role. TimeformUS' Pace Projector puts him on the lead, because he endured a fast pace in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and pressed a moderate pace in the Blue Grass Stakes, even though he prefers to press or stalk. His leading position in the Projector only means he knows what a fast pace feels like (as it is generated through an algorithm), making him experienced in handling them. Hard to discount.
3rd: Game Winner (5-1) – Similar to his stablemate Improbable, Game Winner finished second in his two prep races this year. He only lost by a half-length to Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby and a nose to Omaha Beach in the Rebel Stakes. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is consistent and tough, making him difficult to leave off any ticket.
2nd: Improbable (6-1) – If Omaha Beach is the top-rated Derby candidate, then the Arkansas Derby runner-up Improbable is second. He did all he could to catch Omaha Beach in the slop, but Omaha Beach held a one-length advantage. But Improbable was always highly regarded by the public, and the two close misses in his 2019 form are no reason to jump off yet.
1st: Omaha Beach (4-1) – After reviewing all the videos and considering the speed figures, Omaha Beach is still the most probable winner. Despite Brisnet labeling him as an E8 rather than an E/P 7 styled runner, his preferred running style looks more akin to E/P 7 Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah. Post 12 is good for where he needs to position himself. If he stays clear and hits the front by the far turn, he will prove tough to pass late.