Predicting the Belmont Stakes 2022 order of finish

Because of its marathon distance, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes traditionally presents a stiff handicapping challenge for most bettors, especially when no superstar enters the race. None of the entrants show any form at 1 1/2 miles, which makes this race a bit of a guessing game.

Nevertheless, the race remains a popular race to discuss and bet on.

Here is one opinion on the probable Belmont order of finish, with longer commentary on the first three horses only because of time constraints.

1st – Mo Donegal

Based on his last two starts alone, Mo Donegal is the most likely winner.

In April, Mo Donegal ran down a loose Early Voting in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct. Early Voting did not compete in the Kentucky Derby, but he went on to win the Preakness Stakes on May 21.

Mo Donegal rallied for a good fifth in the Kentucky Derby after drawing the rail. He then skipped the Preakness and waited for this race. Because of the 20-horse Derby field, finishing fifth is not a bad effort.

The only concern for Mo Donegal in the Belmont is the 1 1/2-mile distance, although that is a new challenge and concern for every horse in this race. All indications point towards Mo Donegal wanting the extra ground. After failing to win a maiden sprint in his career debut, Mo Donegal broke his maiden in a local 1 1/16-mile route last October. Then in only his third career start, Mo Donegal he won the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2) after a battle with Zandon.

Only horses who love longer distances win a nine-furlong graded-stakes race in their third career start. 

Besides that, this is a battle-tested horse who knows how to win.  

2nd - Rich Strike

The Kentucky Derby champion deserves respect. For one, his 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure is nothing to sneeze at. To compare that figure to the favorites, Mo Donegal earned a 121 in his Wood Memorial win, and We the People earned a 121 in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3).

Although it might seem that Rich Strike’s closing Derby win came out of nowhere or that the pace scenario gave him an extra push to the front, there are reasons to believe Rich Strike can keep the momentum going.

For one, Rich Strike’s pedigree screams distance on top and bottom.

This is a son of Keen Ice out of a Smart Strike mare named Gold Strike. Keen Ice ran third to American Pharoah in the 2015 edition of this race before going on to upset American Pharoah in the Travers Stakes (G1) later in the summer. As for Gold Strike, she won the nine-furlong Woodbine Oaks for her career highlight.

Maybe Rich Strike was always due to improve on dirt, but those synthetic races in the spring at Turfway Park eliminated the chances for handicappers to see the change. 

As long as jockey Sonny Leon can time his move correctly on the tricky Belmont course, Rich Strike should find himself in the mix to win late.

3rd - Barber Road

If Mo Donegal’s closing fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby counts as a good effort, then Barber Road also gets credit for swinging wide on the far turn and closing for sixth. He ended up only one length behind Mo Donegal.

One length is not a huge difference between two horses on dirt. Yet, Mo Donegal is 5-2 on the morning line, while Barber Road is 10-1. And there is no guarantee Mo Donegal’s 5-2 odds are accurate, as he could fall lower.

Before the Kentucky Derby, Barber Road hit the board every time on the Derby trail at Oaklawn. Barber Road shows three runner-up finishes since January. Those second-place finishes came in the Smarty Jones Stakes, Southwest Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G1). He also ran a close third in the Rebel Stakes (G2).

Even though those trifecta finishes came against weaker fields, Barber Road’s closing run in the Kentucky Derby indicates a move forward.

Plus, Barber Road receives the services of Joel Rosario this time, and he knows how to give a good ride in the Belmont. Getting a jockey who knows this course is a huge positive, as Belmont is a 1 1/2-mile oval.

Barber Road could make the exacta or trifecta interesting at 10-1 or higher.

4th – We the People

We the People is an obvious threat to wire the field after winning the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) by 10 1/4 lengths. On paper, the pace scenario sets up for him to secure the lead and potentially never stop.

With that said, We the People is stepping into a Grade 1, and the class rise is a concern. Even though We the People dominated last time, he beat a weak field in the Peter Pan. If We the People does not handle this level, the loose lead might not matter as he is liable to fold with pressure.

5th – Nest

Nest lost by two lengths to Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks, and that is not a great sign since Secret Oath flattened out in both tries against males.

On the positive side, Nest sports an excellent pedigree for 1 1/2 miles.

6th – Creative Minister

In only his fourth career start, Creative Minister ran a promising race in the Preakness to finish third and lose by only 3 1/2 lengths to Early Voting.

Placing him as low as sixth on this list is a tough decision, as he could end up finishing in the trifecta again with his best effort. Similar to Nest, Creative Minister boasts a great pedigree for the 12-furlong distance.

7th – Skippylongstocking

Skippylongstocking’s fifth-place finish in the Preakness is not a bad effort, although he had every chance in the lane to complete the trifecta.

This son of Exaggerator will need luck to hit the board in the Belmont, or he'll neeed a muddy or sloppy track to help move him forward. In his racing days, Skippylongstocking's sire Exaggerator almost exclusively fired his best runs on a wet track.

8th – Golden Glider

One of these horses needs to finish last. Golden Glider could not make a dent on We the People in the Peter Pan and now faces him again and other good horses in this marathon Grade 1 race. The Peter Pan group minus We the People looks weak overall.

Stay tuned to this blog for the final Belmont wagers later in the week.