Warrior's Charge shakes up Preakness Stakes pace scenario

With a new surprise speed horse Warrior’s Charge declared probable on Thursday for the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown appears to have gained a clear pacesetter. Before his name came up, there were horses pointing toward the May 18 race at Pimlico who could set the pace, but none of them needed it -- not like Warrior's Charge, whose presence changes the race’s complexion.

So let's introduce the colt and discuss who could pressure him early. How fast does the Preakness pace look now with him in the field?

Warrior’s Charge has only been a pacesetter in his past two starts, but it is clear the new style works for him. On March 16, he broke his maiden by six lengths leading wire to wire at Oaklawn Park. He earned a 110 on TimeformUS that day. Next, he won an optional claimer on April 12, after holding a one-length lead for the first half of the race and opening up in the stretch run by more than six. He improved his TimeformUS figure to a 118.

Given his success with the new style, the connections are unlikely to change anything. Furthermore, trainer Brad Cox also conditions Owendale, which gives even less incentive to mess with Warrior’s Charge’s running style.

Warrior’s Charge is getting sent, and he will encourage a fast pace or lope away uncontested. Forget the pace figures, as this horse absolutely will go early and could become dangerous if left alone. If rival jockeys let the latter scenario happen, it would be a major mistake.

The horse most probably to flank or chase Warrior’s Charge closely is Bodexpress, who ran alongside Maximum Security and Long Range Toddy in the Kentucky Derby before the first turn, then backed off slightly.

As with Maximum Security, Bodexpress displayed slow pace figures in the Florida Derby (G1) and proved those numbers irrelevant, as that type of runner will often attempt to retain its usual early position even when facing a different pace scenario.

Bodexpress earned initial TimeformUS Pace Figures of 140 and 127 for his early efforts in the Kentucky Derby, but he faded to 14th. Interference may have played a role, but also this one's still a maiden for a reason.

But if he runs, Bodexpress will find himself flanking Warrior’s Charge, or even setting the pace if the latter breaks poorly. The connections probably believe there is nothing to lose, which means Bodexpress will use his speed.

Right behind or alongside Bodexpress is Alwaysmining, who rated successfully -- even if unintentionally -- in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. This horse also set the pace in five of his previous wins, and the sheer number of “1s” in his running lines indicate that rating tactics go against what he wants to naturally do.

Jockey Daniel Centeno did need to hold him back going into the first turn. But Alwaysmining accepted the outside horse crossing over, and that is a great sign. He should settle fine in the Preakness, or he could go early.

If Centeno lets Alwaysmining loose, he is the leader. But the connections will probably try to emulate his style from the Federico Tesio and press.

The third horse Warrior’s Charge needs to worry about is War of Will, who initially appeared a bit rank on the backside of the Kentucky Derby.

A better explanation is that he was full of run, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione did all he could to save it for the stretch run. Gaffalione had a loaded horse underneath him and tried to switch out for a clear shot, but Maximum Security shifted out as well and took his intended path.

In any case, War of Will is of the kind of horse who loves to sit around second or third in the initial stages. His early position in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) shows this preference. When he started awkwardly in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and had to run from mid-pack, he showed no interest in the stretch run.

At this point, connections are unlikely to experiment with War of Will’s style, meaning Gaffalione is going to cruise near the lead.

Following those horses is Anothertwistafate, who acts as a pacesetter on synthetic, but runs like a stalker over dirt. He will apply some pressure too. Improbable will not fall too far behind those speed horses, either, as new rider Mike Smith is known to let horses roll. 

Assuming the Preakness field stays the same, the pace will be fast. Horses such as Win Win Win, Bourbon War, Signalman, Owendale and Laughing Fox will receive every chance in the world to turn in their best, and that is great.

Too often, these big races turn into merry-go-rounds as jockeys tug their speed horses back and worry about entering an early duel. Only when there is a true need-the-lead horse or two does the scenario usually change, such as when Hidden Scroll met Gladiator King in the Fountain of Youth (G2) earlier this year.

In this race, unless every jockey in the field lets Warrior’s Charge walk on the front end, this figures to be a fast one. So as much as this Preakness has taken hits from the public given defections of Maximum Security and Country House, it looks like a nice betting race with a few clear underlays and overlays, and an obvious pace scenario.

This will be a fun race even with no Triple Crown on the line.