Full card value plays for Saturday's Queen's Plate races

Every time there is a big race such as the $1 million Queen's Plate on Saturday, there are solid races surrounding it. Woodbine did not disappoint racing fans, as their Queen's Plate card looks filled with large, competitive fields to help value bettors.

Down below is one value-minded selection for each of those races, keeping in mind they'd make for idea plays in DerbyWars' $10,000 Queen's Plate contest, which calls for players to select one horse per race and look to tally the largest total payouts.

Woodbine Race 1 - #7 Carolina Grace (8-1)

TimeformUS gives this 5-year-old mare five checkmarks. The Pace Projector puts her close to a hot pace, but that seems unlikely. When she tried a one-mile race last time on Sept. 24, she sat seven lengths off the lead and closed for fourth. She earned a 105 that day, which would be good enough to win here.

Woodbine Race 2 - #5 Limonaia (3-1)

The first-time starter from the Mark Casse barn is probably live given the high-percentage Florent Geroux is riding, and the dam made all her starts in sprints. In early 2-year-old maiden races, it is preferable to go with horses with sprinting families, although pedigree angles do not always work out. It is notable the half-sibling Unspurned made $492,057.

Woodbine Race 3 - #5 El Tormenta (5-1)

The Gail Cox runner just scored a nice three-length win over this turf course at one mile to break his maiden. This stakes race will be run at one mile. He earned a 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and a repeat of that number will win in this spot.

Woodbine Race 4 - #9 Southern Greatness (12-1)

The numbers are high for this gelding. While he habitually fades in the stretch run, the cutback to a sprint distance might help.

Woodbine Race 5 - #4 Stormy Summer (5-1)

Like the previous selection, a cutback in distance might help this filly. She has thrown two 86s in a row on the TimeformUS scale, and a third one may win.

Woodbine Race 6 - #7 Caribou Club (6-1)

Despite defeating Tower of Texas locally last time, Caribou Club is higher on the morning line at 6-1. Tower of Texas is an underlaid 2-1, although he may drift upwards. The Proctor/Boulanger combination is 1 for 2 over the past year. While Tower of Texas, First Premio and Delta Prince are talented foes, this one offers value.

Woodbine Race 7 - #6 Truly Honoured (6-1)

TimeformUS sometimes offers a different perspective than Beyer Speed Figures. Maybe that is why this second-time starter is 6-1 even though she holds the high speed figure in the field at 85. The favorite Sailing By ran a 56 in her career debut. Numbers are not everything, but that is a significant difference.

Woodbine Race 8 - #7 Inflexibility (4-1)

It is nice to see the Brown/Castellano combination at the “value” price of 4-1. Normally this kind of trainer/jockey combo will get underlaid, and perhaps it can still become underlaid once the live odds show. Regardless, this filly packs a punch. While fellow competitor Holy Helena beat her in the Queen’s Plate last year, she had a troubled trip that day and turned in a number of steady performances since then.

Woodbine Race 9 - #5 Lady Alexandra (6-1)

She owns a nice recent win at six furlongs at Belmont. TimeformUS awarded a solid 121 for the effort. Winning by three lengths in a turf sprint is a fairly significant margin because there is no time to create double-digit blowouts. So winning by a few lengths is a “blowout” in turf sprints. This is a filly, but the speed figure signifies her gender makes no difference in this open company field.

Woodbine Race 10 - #6 Real Dude (50-1)

Sure, anyone can go for the conventional picks in the Queen’s Plate such as Telekinesis, Dixie Moon or Wonder Gadot. But here is a chance to pick a son of Ghostzapper, whose progeny seem to love 1 ¼ miles on synthetic, at 50-1. All he needs is a bit of pace up front and clear sailing for his late kick.

Woodbine Race 11 - #2 Lookin at Bravo (6-1)

The return race on May 27 is disappointing, but the past three races before that earned him TimeformUS Speed Figures of 100 or better. He can rebound.

Woodbine Race 12 - #9 Swak (10-1)

This is meant to be a nice filly as a $320k daughter of Scat Daddy. Her career debut on dirt did not pan out, but the score afterwards on Golden Gate synthetic looks great. She won by more than three lengths, and needs one more step up. The Attfield/Garcia combination is only 1 for 10 over the past year, but TimeformUS sees fit to give them a 100 rating.