Pegasus World Cup 2021: 3 horses most capable of winning

Approaching the new year, the next “super” race for racing fans to become excited about is the $3 million Pegasus World Cup on Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park. As usual, the 1 1/8-mile main track race is an invitational for top dirt routers in training.

Who are the three top runners still pointing toward the Pegasus after the post-Breeders’ Cup retirements? The No. 1 ranking goes to a horse who seeks to redeem himself after his Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic losses — Tiz the Law.

The reigning Belmont and Travers champion leads this short list of Pegasus contenders.

1. Tiz the Law

Not very long ago, Tiz the Law gave a dominating performance in the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, winning by 5 1/2 lengths with a 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Travers victory came after came after a stellar spring campaign in which he took the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and the reconfigured Belmont Stakes in June.

Tiz the Law’s stock fell slightly with a runner-up finish to Authentic in the Kentucky Derby and a surprising off-the-board sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Both of those losing efforts are forgivable.

In the Derby, Authentic found his way to an uncontested lead through relatively moderate fractions at that level, resulting in him finding more late for the win. To Tiz the Law’s credit, he did fire in the stretch with his usual move, but Authentic was one of those horses who became brave and almost invincible when left alone on the lead.

As for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Tiz the Law drew inside and took the inside pocket position under Manny Franco despite a sharp break.

From that point, Tiz the Law was uncomfortable.

He tries to tip out in the stretch run, but is already spent by then after dealing with the inside trip.

Considering his lackluster effort in the 2019 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) after racing inside too, it is clear Tiz the Law resents taking dirt in close quarters on the rail.

Tiz the Law’s flaw is unfortunate, but he is not crippled from winning with the right trip. Remember California Chrome? Despite running wide and outside of horses often, he still won many important races, including the 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness and the 2016 Dubai World Cup.

If Tiz the Law draws the middle or outside in the Pegasus World Cup, expect him to cycle back into the 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure, or even improve upon it as a stronger and faster 4-year-old.

As California Chrome did as a 5-year-old, most horses who remain in training peak in either their 4- or 5-year-old seasons.

2. Code of Honor

At one point last year, Code of Honor ran up a three-race win streak in the Dwyer Stakes (G3), Travers Stakes (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) against older horses. He also won the Jockey Club Gold Cup with a career-high 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Despite a disappointing seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, most observers were predicting a big 4-year-old season for him.

Unfortunately, this year did not pan out as expected for Code of Honor. After taking the Westchester Stakes (G3), he was a flat third in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and fourth in the Whitney Stakes (G1), giving new doubt to his overall ability. But in fairness, Code of Honor did not receive a good pace to close into in either race situation.

In his two most recent races, Code of Honor did bounce back with runner-up finishes in the Kelso Handicap (G2) and Clark Stakes (G1). Code of Honor had no excuse for not passing Complexity in the Kelso, but the 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his second is notable as it matches his Travers figure and gives hope he can cycle past that point.

Perhaps Code of Honor runs to his career-best 125 in the Pegasus or improves upon it, depending on his trip and whether the pace sets up for his closing kick. He also gets the second spot on this list because he knows how to win big races, as seen in his 3-year-old season.

Knowing how to win Grade 1 races against big fields is the kind of experience that helps in the Pegasus.

3. Charlatan

Charlatan lacks the overall resumes of Tiz the Law and Code of Honor. But this explosive 3-year-old colt also knows how to cross the wire first in a big race.

After setting the pace in Division I of the Arkansas Derby (G1), Charlatan separated nicely from the field in the stretch run under urging and won by six lengths. Considering he set fast fractions of 22.88, 46.08 and 1:09.68, it is impressive that Charlatan still came up with the energy to draw away late from Basin and company.

Charlatan earned a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is a solid figure for 3-year-old in the spring. He crossed the wire first in a Grade 1 in only his third career start.

Alas, Charlatan became disqualified weeks later with a positive drug test.

Getting hit with the positive might not matter. Gamine won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in an explosive manner for the Bob Baffert barn despite a disqualification at Oaklawn earlier in the year.

If the connections choose to go the Pegasus route, watch out. Even without extra help, Charlatan might own the raw talent to take his game to the highest level right now.