Analysis: Pegasus World Cup a tough pass for Maximum Security

While the $20 million Saudi Cup is a difficult prize to pass up, Maximum Security would leave a perfect setup for his running style if he bypasses on the newly reduced $3 million Pegasus World Cup on Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park.

In the wake of Sunday's announcement that the Pegasus will run for 1/3 of its previous purse, owner Gary West told BloodHorse there's "better than a 50/50 chance" the Feb. 29 Saudi Cup becomes Maximum Security's new target.

Among the eight other horses so far mentioned as possible for the Pegasus -- and detailed in Horse Racing Nation's Stakes Tracker -- there's no front-runner like Maximum Security.

The absence of an entry fee for the 2020 Pegasus, however, should mean a full field signs on to chase the winner's share of what's still a large purse. More speed may appear. In the meantime, the pace appears there for the taking sans Maximum Security.

Next on the list is Omaha Beach, who's first a probable entrant for the Malibu Stakes (G1) on Dec. 26 at Santa Anita Park. Earlier in the year, Omaha Beach made a habit of making an early move on the backside on his way to victory. But in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, jockey Mike Smith played it more conservative, letting him lag towards the back on his way to a runner-up finish.

What tactics would Omaha Beach use at Gulfstream?

In either case, Omaha Beach is not a true pace setter. He figures to concede the early lead to another horse whether Maximum Security shows up before setting up that middle move.

Tax, another whose connections are rethinking the Pegasus, also prefers to either press or stalk close. In his Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) win at Saratoga, Tax allowed War of Will to cross over and set the pace early, as he settled two lengths behind. He also settled 1 ½ lengths behind Not That Brady in the Withers Stakes (G3) before winning.

If Maximum Security bypasses and Tax enters, this one might find himself on the lead by default.

Higher Power is a newer addition to the prospective field. Here is another horse who could press the pace as he did en route to winning the Pacific Classic (G1).

But Higher Power prefers to run in mid-pack and close, as he showed when rallying from seventh to third in the Breeders' Cup Classic. There are also some gate issues with this horse that prevent a better position. For example, he stumbled at the start of the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) and took a bad step in the Breeders' Cup, preventing him from attacking earlier.

Looking further down the list of possible contenders, the Pegasus continues to look like the perfect race, just no longer with the ideal purse, for Maximum Security's 4-year-old debut. The Pegasus is held at a racetrack where he's 4-for-4, too. On paper, he'd be a handicapping slam dunk.

Consider some others...

Gronkowski, who most racing fans remember as the runner-up to Triple Crown champion Justify in the 2018 Belmont Stakes, came from way back that day. But his running style may have changed as he aged.

In his latest race, Gronkowski did show tactical speed overseas in The Entisar Stakes at Meydan, which begins his course back to the Dubai World Cup.

Gronkowski also contested the lead in the 2019 Dubai World Cup before taking command in the stretch. But he was nosed out by Thunder Snow.

At 1 ¼ miles, Gronkowski could lead. In a nine-furlong race such as the Pegasus, Gronkowski might fall a length or two behind a mild pacesetter, or a few more lengths if the leader is the quicker Maximum Security.

Other current Pegasus possibilities all look like closers.

The 7-year-old gelding War Story received a perfect trip in the local Harlan's Holiday Stakes (G3) when Prince Lucky and Bodexpress decided to set the table. War Story settled 7 ½ lengths behind and gradually closed for the win.

War Story can show speed, as evidenced when he pressed the pace in the Monmouth Cup (G3). But even his best speed is not comparable to Maximum Security.

Bravazo, the eighth-place finisher in the Clark (G1) last month at Churchill Downs, last won in the 2018 Risen Star Stakes (G2), where he pressed the pace on his way to victory.

Bravazo's usual game is stalking the pace or settling in mid-pack. If he goes in the Pegasus, there are also form questions with his dismal Clark effort.

Master Fencer is a confirmed late closer, at least from what he showed in his American races. In the Kentucky Derby, the Japanese colt looked like Mine That Bird from how he lagged at the back 23 lengths behind early on.

Unfortunately, Master Fencer could only pick up seventh late, while Mind That Bird won his edition of the Derby in 2009. The point is that Master Fencer lacks speed, and the nature of Gulfstream's dirt will not help.

So this still looks like Maximum Security's race to lose. But as stated above, $20 million is a lot of money. Some of these horses are gunning for both the Pegasus and Saudi Cup to start off the new year, as well as the Dubai World Cup. But in Maximum Security's case, he is likely to contest either the Pegasus or Saudi Cup first, with Dubai a later option.

If he goes after the Saudi Cup, there is no guarantee Maximum Security will thrive in that environment with a different routine and scenery. He could succeed, but there is more doubt, whereas the Pegasus at Gulfstream looks teed up.

The Pegasus World Cup will likely go on without its division leader. But if West has a change of heart and decides to stay home, he is as close to a lock as it gets in a major race considering the competition.