How to bet Stephen Foster longshots Patch, Lookin At Lee

Bettors won't often find value when wagering on former Kentucky Derby runners such as Patch and Lookin at Lee. Yet, in Saturday's Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs, there is reason to believe they can be useful.

For one, horses such as Backyard Heaven and Irish War Cry are entered and should eat up most of the public’s money. Those two horses are also the most likely winners. But if used right, Patch or Lookin at Lee can make the payoffs interesting.

My strategy is to backwheel key Patch or Lookin at Lee in second or third, with the latter more favorable if Patch’s odds come down too steeply. He is, after all, the one-eyed fan favorite. 

A backwheel key is when a horse is singled in one of the underneath slots, as opposed to the first. Rather than the standard pyramid trifecta structure most bettors prefer, the top is loaded with multiple horses.

Patch works as a backwheel candidate because the pace is projected to be fast by the TimeformUS Pace Projector. Irish War Cry is a lock to go to the front. Backyard Heaven just out-dueled 2017 Derby winner And Always Dreaming one start ago, so expect him up front, too. In most Grade I races with a few good speed horses, the pace is quick.

While Patch is not the fastest horse in the race, he earned a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his return on May 12. To compare, Backyard Heaven and Irish War Cry earned 129s in their most recent starts. Pavel is up there as well with a 123 in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1), and Honorable Duty scored a 120 last time.

Patch belongs in this race, whether he wins or not.

Fans will remember Patch ran a woeful 12th in the Kentucky Derby last year, but the effort can be thrown out. The Derby is brutal and results in “one-off” poor running lines.

The Union Rags colt is now a 4-year-old, and Todd Pletcher gears up horses to strike in the second start off the layoff. Also, for most horses the first start back is always forgivable. Patch could move up and throw something in the mid-120 range.

Inevitably, Patch is going to take bets from fans who only want to support their favorite one-eyed horse. But those kinds of bettors do not go into the exacta and especially trifecta pools often. Watch the expected payouts before the race.

As for Lookin at Lee, he is another possible trifecta player after taking a local allowance race with a 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

The 4-year-old Lookin at Lucky colt finished runner-up in the 2017 Kentucky Derby as a closer, which made him underlaid in several subsequent races. Think about horses like Golden Soul, Ice Box, Commanding Curve and others who closed in the Derby for second and never did anything afterwards. He almost resembled them.

But in his last start, he showed improved speed pressing the pace. Sometimes closers who adopt a more front-running style keep going in the stretch because those horses are used to turning in a good stretch run. This could be a brand new horse.

In fact, if Patch’s payouts appear too low in the exacta pools, then Lookin at Lee could be a better choice to rely on underneath.

As for Backyard Heaven, he is obviously a contender from the Chad Brown barn  on an upswing. The 4-year-old Tizway colt won the Alysheba Stakes (G2) over this racetrack after out-dueling 2017 Kentucky Derby champion Always Dreaming.

Irish War Cry will take up the Always Dreaming role in this spot, as the connections are unlikely to experiment anymore with rating. Backyard Heaven will need to put him away, and it will be a tougher task than taking on out-of-form Derby winner.

One of them should endure the fast pace and pull away to victory. Backyard Heaven is slightly more versatile, as he can potentially sit off the leaders, so he gets the nod, while Irish War Cry just needs to hope his early speed can last.

Pavel deserves some conversation, as he is capable of speed figures in the low 120 range. It is questionable though whether his quick ascent last year to the graded stakes ranks came too fast, too soon, as he never got to develop normally.

The Doug O’Neill-trained horse finished a flat fourth in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) against stiff competition. He could move forward in this spot, and the Pace Projector does predict he will come from behind off a fast pace. He needs the right trip.

Honorable Duty starts from the rail and gets a look for the same reason as Pavel. On his best day, he can throw a number in the 120s. Jockey Corey Lanerie loves to shoot through the rail in Calvin Borel-style, and he will get a chance here.

Hawaakom is also a runner with a puncher's chance, as he earned a 124 finishing second to Backyard Heaven in the Alysheba. Three starts ago, he won the Razorback Handicap (G3) impressively in the mud. His chances would look better if the track was muddy again, but the weather should be clear. Still, he will get a fast pace at long odds.

Uncle Mojo and Matrooh complete the field. For those using Brisnet information, Uncle Mojo is a contender on the upswing. But on TimeformUS, he has yet to crack 120.

Matrooh is a neat 8-year-old gelding with a nice pedigree. His dam is a half-sister to Belle’s Good Cide, the dam of 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. Unfortunately, his best days are behind him and on paper this runner is severely overmatched.

Either Patch and/or Lookin at Lee are useful as longshots underneath, while Backyard Heaven and Irish War Cry are the heavy hitters in this race. More conventional trifecta players may wish to use the latter two in the first two spots and spread accordingly.