Little separates Beholder Mile's Unique Bella, Paradise Woods

Matchups between two star horses often make great publicity for the track. In the case of the Grade 1, $400,000 Beholder Mile on Saturday, Santa Anita will attract fans who cannot wait to see Unique Bella and Paradise Woods face each other again. 

For bettors, however, this is a tough race to find value because the two morning line favorites are actually the best horses, albeit with some flaws.

Paradise Woods is a multiple Grade 1 winner who took the Zenyatta Stakes and the Santa Anita Oaks last year. She also battled Unique Bella down the stretch in the La Brea Stakes (G1) back on Dec. 26. She is a quality 4-year-old filly.

If there is one flaw, it is that she needs an uncontested lead to show her best work. Paradise Woods’ Grade 1 wins came while setting the pace, and she finds a way to lose otherwise. Unique Bella’s presence will mean there is company.

Unique Bella loves an uncontested lead, too, as she completely destroyed the local Santa Margarita (G2) field earlier this year with a 134 TimeformUS Speed Figure. None of Paradise Woods’ speed figures come anywhere near that number.

When Unique Bella broke poorly in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn, she quickly rushed up to contest the lead, showing that rating is not her preferred style. She also sat in the starting gate in the first place, which caused the bad start.

This is a talented filly with a few odd quirks. If she repeats the 134 number, obviously she's a winner here again. In all likelihood though, she will turn in something around the 122-125 range, which gives Paradise Woods a chance.

Can both star fillies lose? It is possible. If it happens, the likely upset threat is Vale Dori, who finished a disappointing fifth in the Adoration Stakes (G3).

There are a few things to point out about the effort. For one, Vale Dori came off a layoff and maybe needed one race to get back into it. Bob Baffert typically does not need a prep race with his horses, but this one could be an exception.

Furthermore, according to TimeformUS, the Adoration favored closers to a severe degree (because the coding is in dark blue). Vale Dori stayed close to the pace and made an early move around the far turn before fading in the stretch run.

Vale Dori deserves one more chance before assuming she is done.

For underneath spots, bettors may also look at Mopotism and La Force. The former tried turf for the first time in the Gamely Stakes (G1) just last weekend, and now she wheels back in one week. Regardless, Mopotism’s best race puts her in the mix.  

As for La Force, she only finished a nose behind Mopotism in the Santa Margarita and a head behind in the La Canada (G2) to start off the year. It is safe to say La Force is not far off Mopotism in talent, if not equal. She will benefit if the pace collapses.

Munny Spent completes the field, and her career-best TimeformUS Speed Figure is a 104. She needs a miracle to defeat these fillies and mares.

Bettors who choose to play against Paradise Woods and Unique Bella are placing a lot of faith in those two throwing in clunkers, and that seems unlikely. One of the star fillies should work out a decent enough trip to win. Perhaps the value will come underneath.

In horizontal wagers, use Paradise Woods and Unique Bella as “A” horses and Vale Dori as a “B.” Hopefully the rivalry between the top two can last the entire year.  

If “Cs” must be used, then toss in Mopotism and La Force.