Pace will help modest closer Sunday in Sunland Park Derby

Whenever a fast pace scenario pops up, it makes sense to take a swing on a closer who might not own the same figures as the main contenders, because the race flow will favor horses who finish strongly.

For example, in the Grade 3, $600,000 Sunland Park Derby on Sunday, How Did He Do That does not own the best figures. But the pace scenario favors his run style.

On paper, there are up to three horses who might contest the pace.

Hard to Figure leads the speed horses as the name horse in the field. The Bob Baffert-trained colt exits a gritty runner-up finish to his stablemate Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. In that race Hard to Figure took up the pressing role, and his other stablemate Arabian Lion set the pace and faded late. Hard to Figure still had more gas left for the stretch though.

Then Newgate came with his move on the far turn. To Hard to Figure’s credit, he never gave up and even held the lead for a short while before giving in to Newgate’s stretch punch. But as suggested above, Hard to Figure does not figure to find himself up front alone in this pace scenario either.

The local runner One in Vermillion, who carries a three-race win streak and won his last two races by setting the pace, figures to contest the lead with Hard to Figure. In November he won the Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes at Turf Paradise by a head, and then he took the local Riley Allison Derby in January by a length while making his one-mile route debut.

In the Riley Allison, One in Vermillion held off a closing How Did He Do That. But in this situation One in Vermillion must put away the good Baffert colt Hard to Figure and hold off How Did He Do That. For an average horse such as One in Vermillion, the task seems impossible. However, One in Vermillion can weaken Hard to Figure enough to where they set up the race for How Did He Do That to pull off the mild upset.

Henry Q also brings speed to the table, although it is less certain he will end up contesting the pace with Hard to Figure and One in Vermillion.

Only a few weeks ago in the local Mine That Bird Derby, Henry Q set the pace under pressure before opening up approaching the second turn and drawing clear late in a powerful fashion to romp home by 14 3/4 lengths.

For the Mine That Bird win, Henry Q received an impressive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 93 Beyer Speed Figure, which are roughly the same figure if accounting for the difference in scale. The smashing numbers almost feel too good given his average form back in California.

Before switching to trainer Todd Fincher, Henry Q competed under trainer Doug O’Neill at Santa Anita. In February while still with O'Neill, he picked up his first win in his third try in a seven-furlong maiden special weight. Henry Q made use of stalking tactics and then took over late before prevailing by only three-quarters of a length. He also ran as a stalking type when he finished fourth in his two maiden losses at shorter distances before winning his third race.

Henry Q earned a 91 on TimeformUS for the Santa Anita maiden win. Maybe Fincher discovered a way to get the most out of this Blame colt, while O'Neill failed to figure out makes him tick over at Santa Anita.

In any case, Henry Q might use his speed again, or he might convert into a stalker if jockey Edwin Maldonado notices a speed duel ahead. His versatility is an asset, but the high figure will attract bettors and possibly make him over bet.

With at least two or three horses set to contest the pace, How Did He Do That will receive every chance to pick up his first graded-stakes win in his ninth career start. His first win came in a high-priced, maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs in September when he drew away by 4 1/4 lengths late after contesting the early lead.

Two starts after breaking his maiden, How Did He Do That won the Zia Park Juvenile Stakes in late November by 2 1/2 lengths after pressing the pace.

After the Zia Park Juvenile, How Did He Do That started to run as a closer rather than a speed horse. Initially, the new tactics did not work, as seen by his fifth-place finishes in the Advent Stakes and Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. But in his most recent start with the new tactics, How Did He Do That gave an improved effort with a closing second in the Riley Allison.

Does How Did He Do That own the right pedigree to stretch out to nine furlongs? As a son of Good Magic, How Did He Do That’s grandsire is the established route influence Curlin. In addition, How Did He Do That’s three-quarter sibling Giocare, who is sired by Curlin, won up to nine furlongs in his 19-race career spent mostly in claiming and starter-allowance type races.

With his second in the Riley Allison only earning him a 92 on TimeformUS, How Did He Do That might not own the right speed figure. Maybe the race can fall into his lap, though. More often than not, the Sunland Park Derby pace is too fast and results in the leaders crawling late.

How Did He Do That offers enough value at his 9-2 morning-line odds. More likely than not, the public will ignore him and allow his odds to stay at that point or drift upward. But if he falls shorter than 4-1, then consider finding another race to bet on. 

Win-place: 1, if 4-1 or higher.