Pace preview: Analyzing Saturday’s Kentucky Derby preps

Gulfstream Park holds a strong 2018 Kentucky Derby prep race in the Grade 2, $350,000 Holy Bull Stakes this Saturday, and the 1 1/16th-mile contest is likely to feature a moderate pace at best.

Similarly, the Grade 3, $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes offer moderate pace scenarios, too. Neither one is easy to handicap, however, as the popular speed horses feel too unreliable. 

Sometimes there is no other option but to choose a closer, even if the race favors speed, and vice versa. Preferably, the horse chosen in such scenarios will be versatile.

Now, let's look at a pace breakdown of all three races.

Holy Bull (see the field)

First of all, this author disagrees with the TimeformUS Pace Projector. 

As for the other speed shown, Bandito is cutting back from a nine-furlong race. Horses who display early foot in longer races are liable to settle down slightly going shorter. 

Likewise, the No. 10 horse, Aequor, is capable of leading a moderately-paced sprint, which means he is going to find himself up front in this two-turn route. The Pace Projector is correct in this example. But even so, does he offer enough class to matter? 

Finally, there is Mississippi in Post 11. The talented horse will run in a Sunday allowance race instead, which leaves the Holy Bull without its most dangerous front-runner.  

But while the pace will be moderate, none of those horses above can be trusted. 

The only choice is to choose a closer who is drawn well and can stay within range. While it is not an easy pick, Free Drop Billy from Post 2 fits the description. 

Even though he runs from behind, the Pace Projector only shows him as sixth in the first stage. Without Mississippi, he will be fifth or higher early. 

As for Free Drop Billy’s ugly Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, it can be excused because he ran on a dead rail. Look at how a couple of Breeders’ Cup runners who also ran inside on those two days fared since then. Unique Bella won a Grade 1 race at Santa Anita, while Stellar Wind made a bold move in the Pegasus World Cup, before cut off by Toast of New York. 

The Breeders’ Cup rail dirtied up their form, and some bettors are not going to understand that a horse can be so affected by a negative bias.

Free Drop Billy can save ground early on and settle into a nice pocket trip, before switching out for what is hopefully a winning move. 

Withers (see the field)

Avery Island is obviously the main speed in this spot. Can he be trusted, though? 

In a Sept. 30 maiden race at Belmont Park, he found himself on an uncontested lead through a 48-second half mile. It is no wonder he waltzed home to break his maiden by five lengths. 

When Avery Island ran next in the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes, he won on arguably a good rail. It is also noticeable he shook clear by the second call, leaving him uncontested for most of the race. 

A month later, he was outrun by turf-to-dirt Catholic Boy in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. The so-so effort for second place brings into question whether Avery Island is deserving of 8-5 morning line odds here. Catholic Boy easily defeated him by four lengths. 

On the other hand, Marconi is the third choice at 3-1 and possesses enough speed to keep Avery Island within range. While the half-brother to Mucho Macho Man has encountered bad luck breaking from the gate, once he gets rolling, he puts himself within a few lengths. 

Trainer Todd Pletcher must think highly of Marconi’s longer-distance abilities to place him in three nine-furlong races to start his career. He might simply outlast the field. 

Robert B. Lewis (see the field)

This is a difficult race with a couple of unreliable speed types.

Peace is the morning line favorite. The son of Violence offers speed and popular connections in trainer Richard Mandella, owner Spendthrift Farm and jockey Mike Smith. But there is not an eye-opening race in his short career. He only looks decent.

Does it matter he only lost the Nov. 23 race by a head to Shivermetimbers (who also competes in this race)? That horse went on to finish a dull fourth in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes last month.  

Peace also defeated Regulate by slightly less than a length on Dec. 30. Regulate proceeded to run sixth in a Jan. 19 maiden race, although he was pace compromised. 

The Robert B. Lewis is not a strong field, and Peace can win. But if anyone likes Peace, then why not just side with Regulate? 

Regulate arguably worked harder by moving earlier than Peace in the Dec. 30 matchup.

Furthermore, trainer Bob Baffert is experienced enough to not put a maiden in a graded stakes race without justification for the move. He probably thinks highly of this colt.

While Regulate is not a confident pick, he offers more value than Peace. Therefore, he is the tepid choice.