Analysis: Favorites formidable in Sam F. Davis, San Vicente

Favorable pace scenarios can only help horses to a point. If the big favorite holds enough class, it will not matter what any pace figures or Pace Projector say.

In Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and the Grade 2, $200,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park, there are favorites who might not enjoy the projected pace scenario and win anyway (although we will attempt to beat them here).

For a bonus, I'll throw in analysis of the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Maria Stakes as well.  

Sam F. Davis Stakes

Only two scenarios are likely to cause expected favorite Catholic Boy to lose: a moderate to slow pace or random clunker.

As for the first option, the pace does appear moderate. There are no crazy run-off types ready to kick into high gear from the break. Therefore, the race favors speed.

Mid-pack runner Catholic Boy possesses enough early zip to stay close in a nine-furlong race. At 1 1/16 miles though, he is not running any closer than three or four lengths. 

One of the other horses could take advantage and find a way to step up their game on the lead. With 3-year-old horses, sudden improvements can happen quickly.

Three alternative horses with speed are possible to move forward.

One of them is Vino Rosso, who comes from the respected Todd Pletcher barn. The son of Curlin pressed the leader through a slow 50-second half in a local optional claiming race on Dec. 22, which not surprisingly led to a win. 

But to push back on the idea he is slow, he appeared handridden through the stretch, and the Pletcher barn is known for horses who develop rapidly this time of year. Think about the slow-paced affairs in which Always Dreaming initially ran. He clearly had more in store by going on to win the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.

If not Vino Rosso, then perhaps Vouch can rebound from his six-length loss to Catholic Boy in the Grade 2 Remsen.

Doubters might wonder why anything would change now, but the distance is slightly shorter, and Vouch endured a poor trip going wide into the first turn at Aqueduct. From Post 7 here, he needs a sharper start to avoid losing ground. 

Finally, Septimius Severus offers a puncher’s chance after finishing second to the talented Impact Player at Gulfstream Park. Because he is capable of tactical speed while sprinting, he should race closer to the lead going two turns now (since the pace is slower in a route). From there, it is a matter of whether he owns enough class to win.

To be clear, Catholic Boy is the best horse in this spot. Yet, it is horse racing, and no one can assume any horse is invincible in any given race.

San Vicente Stakes

Ax Man is not the best horse to bet, even though he is the best horse here.

For one, he will be underlaid as the big speed figure runner from the Bob Baffert barn. He will also be pace compromised breaking from the rail with speed drawn in the three posts nearby. Those are two strikes from a value standpoint.

Playing against Ax Man is a difficult task, though. Who is good enough to challenge?

Mr. Jagermeister will be pace compromised running with Ax Man early. 

Nero, if he tries to run with them, will be compromised and lacks high speed figures.

All Out Blitz cuts back to seven furlongs after losing to McKinzie in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. Maybe shortening up will help. He might be able to rate a little bit.

The two main closers, Kanthaka and Kris’ Rocket Kat, are just not classy enough at the moment. A favorable pace scenario may not matter for either of them.

Of course, Kris’ Rocket Kat’s 4-1 morning line odds might make it seem like he can win. But glance at who he defeated in his Nov. 25 race. Second-place finisher Concur lost two straight races since then. Third-place finisher Mo Over lost a maiden claimer last month.

Eighth-place Camby returned to finish runner-up to Kanthaka in December, but that seems more like a strike against Kanthaka than a boost for Kris’ Rocket Kat.

Ax Man is in a good spot and should handle this field, even if pace compromised. All Out Blitz is the only reasonable alternative.

Santa Maria Stakes 

Unlike Ax Man, Unique Bella is not going face a blitzing pace scenario. Plus, her class is clearly above this field.

Shenandoah Queen is overmatched in graded stakes races.

Mopotism recently won the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes, but has never been a fast runner. Whenever a big name shows up, she tends to lose.

Kathy’s Song gets the wild card designation with only one dirt start on record. For believers, her sibling is Prime Attraction, a graded stakes winner on dirt.

Majestic Heat is the fifth horse in this field, and she is interesting.

While the 6-year-old mare burned money finishing fifth in the La Canada to Mopotism, she was pace compromised. The raw fractions are not going to show it, but the fact that Mopotism and 7-1 shot Mended held the 1-2 spots for most of the time signifies a moderate to slow pace. Majestic Heat needed a better setup to make an impact.

Then again, there is no pace in the Santa Maria, right?

Majestic Heat ran less than a length off the lead in a seven-furlong sprint just three starts ago. She can hang with the leader early on in this route race, if asked.

Even with all these upset angles though, keep in mind that bettors do not always need to defeat the favorite. There is no sense in playing against the favorite for the sake of playing against the favorite. A lot of times, they do win.