Analysis: Nero endured torrid pace in San Vicente defeat

Horses are compromised when the early pace works against their running style. When it comes to Nero, Saturday's Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes fit this label perfectly.

Trained by Bob Baffert and owned in part by Stonestreet Stables, Nero came into the race off two short sprints where he lost by a nose and won by the same margin. The Pioneerof the Nile colt started at 9-1, while stablemate Ax Man went off at less than even money. 

Ax Man drew a difficult post position against the speedy Mr. Jagermeister, and that foe took the race to him early. The duo cut through fractions of 22 and 44.25, with Nero never less than a length behind. 

On the far turn, Ax Man and Mr. Jagermeister both quit. Nero had every right to throw in the towel, too, but he stayed on and kept fighting.

Late closer Kanthaka decided to take advantage of the situation, as he saved a bit of ground inside of All Out Blitz and swung outside for a sharp rally. He engulfed the field in one sweeping move for the win.   

Nero lost by a little more than three lengths, while Ax Man got cut down in size losing by 16. Mr. Jagermeister finished over 22 lengths behind. 

Most handicappers who prefer to look at winners and losers will reason Kanthaka ran better than Nero because he hit the wire first.

But moving forward, consider that Nero ran hard in the early stages, despite not leading. Meanwhile, Kanthaka waited somewhere in the back with Kris’ Rocket Kat and bided his time (although in a fast-paced situation, closers are running at a brisk pace, too). 

Kanthaka needed only to swoop in and pass tired horses. 

Nero showed a ton of heart and still wanted to win. He drew clear of the others, but spent too much energy chasing the pace to fight Kanthaka. 

While Kanthaka is still a horse to watch, Nero deserves attention as the pace-compromised runner. He should be a monster at elongated sprints. 

As for whether Nero can go a route of ground, it is tricky to answer through pedigree analysis because his half sibling Ocean Knight had his career derailed by injury and never appeared the same afterward. He did win the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis, and took two one-turn miles later. 

In all likelihood, Nero will be able to compete at distances up to 1 1/8 miles. 

But if the connections decide to go the Kentucky Derby route, perhaps the sprinter half of his pedigree (Stormy Atlantic) catches up with him. 

What about Ax Man? 

Some handicappers will write him off because of the sharp fade, but he obviously endured a lot on the front and still outfinished Mr. Jagermeister.

Whenever there is a torrid speed duel, the horse on the inside receives the worst because he deals with the outside horse and the rail. Mr. Jagermeister enjoyed more breathing room on the outside because Nero was behind. 

Still keep an eye on both horses, at least at sprint distances. 

Other quick thoughts

Catholic Boy ran well in defeat in the Sam F. Davis. No one should discount his chances going forward if they liked him before.

Flameaway never impressed much with his previous dirt races, yet he won. If nothing else, he fought bravely when put to the test.

Vino Rosso ran like it was a turf race by turning in his best run towards the end. Perhaps he gains more experience in fast-paced races and improves.

Also, Unique Bella ran like a monster in taking the Grade 2 Santa Maria.