Why Oscar Nominated gets the edge in Kentucky Turf Cup

Oscar Nominated aims for a repeat victory in the Grade 3, $750,000 Kentucky Turf Cup on Saturday at Kentucky Downs, and the 5-year-old Kitten’s Joy ridgling is in a good position to do so. As the morning line indicates, he will be the horse to fear.

Trained by Michael Maker, Oscar Nominated is 4-1-1-0 this year. He started off the season with a win in the W.L. McKnight (G3) at Gulfstream, before finishing fourth in the Mac Diarmida (G2), second in the Elkhorn Stakes (G2) at Keeneland and a troubled sixth in the United Nations (G1) at Monmouth Park.  

The failed United Nations attempt deserves a cross examination.

For starters, Oscar Nominated appears to steady slightly when the No. 7 Silverware comes in before the first turn. Then around the first turn, Silverware continues to make the trip difficult, as he keeps Oscar Nominated in tight quarters and comes in again into Oscar Nominated’s path. In a turf race, every slight bit of trouble counts.

After that point, Oscar Nominated’s path was relatively clear. Unfortunately for him, the pacesetter Funtastic slipped to an uncontested lead early and put the field away in the stretch. Oscar Nominated made some mild progress, but he needed more pace.

In addition to his win in this same race last year, Oscar Nominated also took the 2016 Dueling Grounds Derby by over six lengths, meaning he is 2-for-2 on this European-style turf course. Past success over this quirky track is important.

There are a number of other horses to go through, and one of them is Bigger Picture. 

The 7-year-old gelding also competed in the United Nations, outkicking Oscar Nominated in the stretch to finish third by only two lengths.

Bigger Picture returned to run a good fourth in the Bowling Green Stakes (G2) at Saratoga, finishing only half a length behind the familiar Sadler’s Joy, and a length behind the co-winners Channel Maker and Glorious Empire. It was a solid effort.

Afterward, Bigger Picture seemingly turned in a clunker in the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) by running eighth. But on closer inspection, pacesetter Glorious Empire took the field on a merry-go-round, as he secured the lead and kept going, while his previous foe Channel Maker held second the entire time around.

When the 1-2 horses at the beginning finish 1-2 at the end, chances are the pace went slow.  

Bigger Picture also shows successful experience at Kentucky Downs, finishing a close fourth in the 2016 Old Friends Stakes. It would not be a surprise if he fired.

The next contender to discuss is Manitoulin, who comes off a very disappointing seventh in the Bowling Green. He lost by 17 lengths over the soft turf course.

Previously, Manitoulin finished a close fourth in the Manhattan Stakes (G1) at Belmont, losing by less than a length to Spring Quality. If he repeated the same effort on Saturday, it would be good enough to win. He also ran sixth in the Fort Marcy (G3), but only by a little more than three lengths. At least it was not by 17 lengths.

As for past experience on this course, Manitoulin turned in a disappointing eighth in Oscar Nominated’s Dueling Grounds Derby win two years ago.

If not those three options, then how about Nessy? The 5-year-old gelding could only close for fifth in the Stars and Stripes Stakes (G3) at Arlington, but of course he received no pace as Catcho En Die coasted on an uncontested lead and held on.  

Throw out the flop in the Belmont Gold Cup Invitational (G2) two races ago, as knocking a horse for not placing in a two-mile race seems harsh. Before that, Nessy took the San Juan Capistrano (G3) at Santa Anita, finished third in the Mac Diarmida (G2) and a strong second in the W.L. McKnight to Oscar Nominated.

The major knock against Nessy comes from his two Kentucky Downs efforts, as he finished unplaced both times when competing in last year’s Kentucky Turf Cup and the 2016 Dueling Grounds Derby. Based on his current form, though, he fits.

Arklow finished fourth in the slow-paced Stars and Stripes, and he actually went on to win the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup at Ellis Park by a close head. Earlier this year, he also turned in a good fourth in the Turf Classic (G1) against Yoshida, and a second to the solid Synchrony in the Muniz Memorial (G2) at Fair Grounds.

Also in Arklow’s favor is his age, as the 4-year-old Arch colt owns the right to improve. He just needs to handle the course, as this marks his first visit here.

Off the also-eligible list, there are two interesting contenders – Patterson Cross and Markitoff.

Patterson Cross only lost by a length in the ungraded John’s Call at Saratoga and lost by the same margin two starts ago in an optional claimer on the same course. What makes this runner especially appealing are the two recent TimeformUS Speed Figures, as he earned a 122 and 124 in those two starts.

The Maker-trained Markitoff displays three straight losses in optional claimers. He actually blew an uncontested lead at Belmont two starts ago to Patterson Cross.

On May 26, though, Markitoff finished a good second to Funtastic in that string of optional claiming losses, and as mentioned above Funtastic won the United Nations next out. Consider this mega longshot for an underneath spot if he draws in.

This race features a lot of horses, and not all of them are worthy of mention.

Despite his status as the morning line favorite, Oscar Nominated seems most ready to handle the quirky course while possessing the right class to actually win. Because of the large field size, he should stay around 7/2, which would be fair, and worth the play.